Elon Musk & Gwynne Shotwell on AI Risks and Peer Review, Starship, Terafab, SpaceX/Tesla Merger | All-In Podcast
Questions on ElonsFAQ asked in this interview (10)
Transcript
27:38Jason CalacanisSorry to interrupt. I'm getting a call.
27:40Chamath PalihapitiyaOh, another call.
27:42Jason CalacanisIt's a little. It's actually on the margins, I think, a little bit of a more important phone call than Trump, at least for me. Hello, Bestie, Bestie.
27:51Elon MuskHello.
27:52Chamath PalihapitiyaOh, hey, buddy.
27:54Jason CalacanisI'll put them up on the screen. How you doing?
27:59Elon MuskI mean, this is a little 1984ish, this gigantic situation.
28:07Jason CalacanisYeah, the woman with the sledgehammer is going to come running down the main aisle here.
28:11Elon MuskExactly, yeah. Put a hole in the screen.
28:17Jason CalacanisSo are we all going to die in 10 years or not? It's the topic of discussion here. What's your p doom right now?
28:26Elon MuskWell, I hate to break it to you, but we're all going to die.
28:30Jason CalacanisCan I get a timeline?
28:33Elon MuskYeah. The death rate remains consistent at 100%.
28:43Jason CalacanisWe've got work to do on that. What happened? What happened in the last 72 hours?
28:52Elon MuskYeah, it's been. It's been quite an entertaining week, really.
28:59Jason CalacanisBreak it down.
29:02Elon MuskWell, it's. It's pretty obvious at this point that AI is. Can be very dangerous. And I recommend reading the details of the hugging face incident. It's intense. So you had, like, a fanatical swarm of AI agents that beat the crap out of Hugging Face for a week and gained admin access on OpenAI servers.
29:31Elon MuskSo who knows what it actually did. May have done things beyond that. OpenAI didn't realize this for a week. Anthropic has also reported, you know, some security instances themselves.
29:44Elon MuskSo basically any specially smart model seems like it. It will want to escape its constraints. I mean, what I think would be wise to do as soon as possible, if not immediately, would be to have the major AI competitors test each other's models so that you would have everyone's security test, harness testing everyone's model.
30:15Elon MuskSo, you know, instead of kind of grading your own homework, you would at least have competitors grading Your homework and raising the alarm if they see concerns. And I think this model has worked pretty well for motion picture association, for video games and other things.
30:34Elon MuskAnd it's something that can be done immediately. That's not to say that there wouldn't be, you know, more regulation over time or that there would not be at some point perhaps regulatory authority substantiated by Congress.
30:47Elon MuskBut, but the thing that we do most immediately and probably get an agreement with China would be peer review where the leading air companies or test each other's models before release.
31:02Elon MuskI think that would be a wise variable.
31:04Jason CalacanisAny concern that people might be using this to pump information from each other and you know, corporate stealing of innovation, et cetera. Like in terms of the implementation for this idea?
31:20Elon MuskWell, I think in applying the test partners, whatever you do in applying the test harness would be log. So if you try to do distillation or steel ip, it will be very obvious based on the logs.
31:36Jason CalacanisGot it. And understanding what these models are doing hasn't exactly been built into the system from the beginning. So from your perspective actually being able to see the work that's being done, why wasn't that built into the models from the get go?
31:56Jason CalacanisDid we move a little too fast in architecting these?
31:59David FriedbergMaybe?
32:02Elon MuskWell, I think it's just tough when you're grading your own homework, you're going to miss things. Whereas I think if you have the sum of all of your competitors tests and you've got heterogeneous models, then you're not creating your own homework.
32:23Elon MuskSomeone else is creating it. And there's a reason why you don't create your own homework.
32:28Chamath PalihapitiyaAnd then to your point, what it allows you to start doing is to figure out if certain people are exaggerating and certain people are have a different approach. And now you can have the more engineering oriented organizations.
32:39Chamath PalihapitiyaThis is what Jensen was saying this morning, Elon versus the research organizations. They'll be a little bit more imbalanced.
32:46Gwynne ShotwellYeah.
32:48Elon MuskAnd any given proposal has to be something that China is willing to accept. Otherwise we're just handicapping ourselves and we'll just find it that China will essentially win and it won't really matter what we do actually.
33:04Elon MuskSo it's got to be something that's acceptable to U.S. and China.
33:09David SacksElon, you said that you thought it was possible that they would agree or you thought there was a good chance maybe. I mean, how likely do you think it is that they'll ultimately agree?
33:18Elon MuskAgree. I think this is, I think this is a pretty reasonable request that, that models Just get tested. I mean, at the end of the day, there's not enforceability here, apart from the court of public opinion,
33:34David Friedbergand, and
33:35Elon Muskthere's no way we would have enforceability against China. But I, I think the court of public opinion can be quite powerful. And I don't think China would egg on its face for releasing a model that US AI companies said was very dangerous, would cause harm.
33:55Elon MuskIf it then causes harm, that's going to be hard to live down.
34:02Chamath PalihapitiyaSo Elon, this weekend, when you said Dario is right, did you. Did you mean Dario is right about describing the potential harm? He's right about describing the regulatory. Solve both, the first, the latter.
34:16Jason CalacanisJust.
34:16Chamath PalihapitiyaCan you help us understand when you said that? Because I think it was sort of a moment where
34:22Elon MuskI probably should have said, right. I did try to clarify it in subsequent posts on X, but those get much less attention. So what I, what I meant by he's right is that the danger of AI is, is very significant at this point that we need to do better with AI safety or we have at this point exponentially increasing risk with the AI models.
34:57Elon MuskAnd I've heard this not just from Dario, but from many other people at Anthropic. And in fact they posted on X about it that, you know, when a lot of people from anthropic and from OpenAI are telling you that their models are very dangerous, I think we should believe them.
35:20Elon MuskIt certainly is like some crazy 4D chess to, you know, say these. There's whatever 10% chance of annihilating humanity. But by the way, how much allocation would you like in our IPO?
35:36Jason CalacanisGosh,
35:39Elon Muskthat's some crazy 4D test, you know. Well, let's get knew what dimension that's coming from.
35:45Jason CalacanisCan we get specific about the risk though, Elon? Like, obviously we see cyber and hacking as an obvious risk. These tools are great at it. But take us from what we would all agree.
35:57Jason CalacanisOkay, yes, these things can cyber hack to how do we jump to all of humanity dying? There's a couple of steps in between these two things happening, I think.
36:07Jason CalacanisYeah,
36:09Elon Muskwell, I mean, if it were able to take control of military systems and say launch a new. Yes, that would be bad.
36:20Jason CalacanisAnd these systems are all air gapped, though. These systems are all not connected to the Internet, so.
36:27Elon MuskYeah, that's what they say. But something tells me they get software updates from time to time. Yeah. And what floppy does.
36:38Chamath PalihapitiyaOh, I see.
36:39Jason CalacanisSo yeah, the USB drive has a worm on it and they somehow make the jump in the air gap.
36:44Elon MuskYeah, yeah.
36:46Chamath PalihapitiyaOkay.
36:47Elon MuskThat's not out of the question.
36:48David FriedbergElon, we've actually got Gwen here today. I think you know that. I think you can see her.
36:53Jason CalacanisYeah, Gwen's here.
36:54Elon MuskYeah, on the screen.
36:56Chamath PalihapitiyaYeah.
36:56Jason CalacanisWe were just doing your 360 review on Gwen. Had a couple of notes for you.
37:02Elon MuskYeah, I hope, I hope I get at least three out of five.
37:05Jason CalacanisWell, there was one out of five
37:07Gwynne Shotwellmeans good at SpaceX.
37:09Jason CalacanisNot great.
37:09Gwynne ShotwellFour is great.
37:11Jason CalacanisFour is great. So you're somewhere between the two. There was some issues around punctuality that we needed to bring up. Sometimes you could make a little more effort to get to the meeting at the state of time, but we're going to work with you on that over the next year.
37:28Gwynne ShotwellShe said, I actually think he needs to spend more time in Memphis. Yes, obviously, I know you're in Memphis. You need to be working, getting those GPUs up.
37:39Elon MuskThis is coming to you from my, the palace that I live in in Memphis, which is an Airstream trailer.
37:48Gwynne ShotwellThis is Elon, by the way, doing what people don't believe he does. He sleeps on the factory floor. He's in Memphis helping build buildings.
37:58David FriedbergAnd bring up Elon, why, why has, why has Gwyn been with you for so long and been so successful working with you?
38:04Elon MuskBecause she's awesome.
38:07Jason CalacanisDouble click on it.
38:08Chamath PalihapitiyaYeah.
38:10Elon MuskAn amazing individual with an incredible IQ and eq.
38:14Jason CalacanisOh, iq, any.
38:15Elon MuskAnd I think that should be obvious from the moment you meet her. Yeah.
38:20Jason CalacanisFantastic. What's your favorite Gwen story, when she particularly contributed to the amazing success that you've had in this collaboration? You got a favorite story where she saved the day, just performed exceptionally.
38:36Jason CalacanisThat's memorable.
38:38Elon MuskAnd that's just, that's just a daily, you know, that's another day at the office, frankly. So.
38:43Gwynne ShotwellWow, I need to do this more often.
38:45Chamath PalihapitiyaWe need to waste. This is the time.
38:47Jason CalacanisBy the way, Gwen's getting a five.
38:49Chamath PalihapitiyaGwen's a five out of five.
38:51Elon MuskFive.
38:51Jason CalacanisGame changer.
38:53Elon MuskYeah, I mean there's, there's always like some, some sort of crisis going on. I mean, these days, the rockets, at least the Falcon rockets, I don't want to jinx anything, but the Falcon rockets deliver their payload to orbit and haven't exploded for a long time, which is awesome.
39:09Elon MuskAmazing. But, you know, for a while there they were exploding quite a lot or just not launching at all. So, you know, I don't know. We've got to run the company through these difficult times and, and get, you know, build up of the rocket, make it better, have it not Explode.
39:28Elon MuskYeah, same thing with the satellites. And then we, you know, we need customers to buy launches and buy sort of satellite connectivity and, you know, so.
39:42Jason CalacanisYeah, and Elon, as you have become more successful over the years, harder to get candid feedback from folks. And you always run that risk being in the position you're in.
39:54Jason CalacanisMy understanding Gwen is super candid with you and able to tell you honestly, like, state of affairs at the company.
40:01Chamath PalihapitiyaYeah.
40:02Jason CalacanisAnd that's a big part of the collaboration.
40:06Elon MuskYeah, I mean,
40:11Elon MuskYeah, I mean, yeah, I guess.
40:13Gwynne ShotwellI mean, I mean, I wouldn't want to lie to him. Right.
40:16Jason CalacanisWell, no, I mean.
40:17David FriedbergWell, I'm curious to know you run
40:18Jason Calacanisthat risk generally at the companies where people might be intimidated. Hey, listen, you're a larger than life figure at this point and how do you keep people continuing to be honest with you about the challenges, the deadlines you set?
40:31Jason CalacanisPretty intense deadlines. Yeah.
40:33Gwynne ShotwellSo let me, let me answer that, if you don't mind. Elon, like, especially in rocketry, if there's a problem, you are eventually going to find out and the sooner you bring it up, the easier it is going to be to solve that problem.
40:47Gwynne ShotwellLike, don't let bad shit sit. You gotta attack it.
40:53Elon MuskYeah. Physics is a harsh judge and there's no fooling physics. So like if something's wrong, the rocket's going to explode and start going to get to orbit. So, you know, it's not like, elon, you're amazing.
41:06Elon MuskMeanwhile, the rockets are blowing up, you know. Yeah, it's not, it's hard to say. Yeah, you're, you're really kicking ass here. But the rockets are exploding. That's just not the case, you know, so, so I mean, I mean, just generally, like the rockets need to get to orbit, the satellites need to work, the starlinks, you know, connection needs to work or, you know, or bad things happen.
41:33Elon MuskI mean, this is sort of like a physics situation and, and, and physics is a, is, is a harsh judge. You know, I say like, you know, there's, I think, like, like physics is the law and everything else is a recommendation.
41:50Elon MuskLike, I've seen people break the laws made by, by humans, but I've not seen anyone break the laws made, made by physics. So that's good. And rockets are ruled by physics.
42:04Jason CalacanisYeah.
42:05Chamath PalihapitiyaSo can we ask some other questions of other. You have. I need to move to Tesla for a second.
42:11Jason CalacanisYes. Well, I wanted to just do one thing. SpaceX, which is Starship.
42:15Gwynne ShotwellLike.
42:15Chamath PalihapitiyaOh, yeah.
42:16Jason CalacanisIt seems like you're so close.
42:18Chamath PalihapitiyaSo close.
42:19Jason CalacanisSo close.
42:20David FriedbergYeah.
42:22Jason CalacanisWhat's the state right now? And you, you're really putting these up at a, at a pretty size, pretty answer.
42:28David FriedbergAnd Elon's answer. Separate and see how they convert. Yeah.
42:31Jason CalacanisSo Elon, how close are we? Gwen, how close are we? Let's get, let's, let's get to it here. Yeah. How many have gone up so far and how close are you?
42:39Elon MuskWell, We've got flights 14 coming up of Starship and this, this will be the last flight before, before we attempt to catch the ship. So if this flight goes well, then on flight 15 we will try to catch the ship.
42:59Elon MuskAnd then either end of this year or more likely early next, we will refly the ship and refly the booster. So we have reflown the booster already, but we've not caught the ship with the tower arms, nor have we reflown the ship.
43:14Elon MuskSo once we can re fly the ship, we will have made the first fully reusable orbital rocket. So the shuttle was partly reusable, but even the parts that were reused were so difficult to reuse that the shuttle cost more per time to orbit than an expendable rocket.
43:32Elon MuskNow Falcon 9 is mostly reusable, but we lose the upper stage every time, which is about the cost of a medium sized jet. So that obviously puts a floor on the cost per flight of like well, you throw away a medium sized jet every time, that's still pretty expensive.
43:49Elon MuskAnd the rocket, Falcon 9, the booster lands down, you know, often I out to sea, it takes several days to get back. And the fairing lands even further out to sea and takes several days to get back.
44:02Elon MuskAnd they need some amount of refurbishment, at least a small amount. So whereas Starship, the booster lands back at the launch pad, the ship will land back at the launch pad.
44:13Elon MuskAnd so it's, it's designed for not just full reusability but also rapid reusability like an aircraft. So this is, this is a very important breakthrough. It's really the critical breakthrough that's necessary to extend life beyond Earth.
44:31Jason CalacanisChances of success catching it on first shot. You do you think about that at all? Do you handicap it pretty good?
44:39Elon MuskI'd say it's at least 50 or 60%.
44:42Jason CalacanisOkay. I like the odds.
44:44Elon MuskYeah. So on the last flight if there had been a tower, so we did a simulated landing as though it was going to get caught by a tower in the, in the ocean about a thousand miles northwest of Australia.
44:58Elon MuskAnd if there had been a tower at that, at that location, it would have caught the ship on the last flight.
45:05Chamath PalihapitiyaFantastic.
45:06David FriedbergSo we're.
45:07Elon MuskYeah, so we're going to do one more flight to just confirm that, that everything. Just to double check that everything works. Because what, what we're most concerned about is if the ship were to break up over land and rain debris on people our populated, our popularity would diminish very rapidly.
45:27Elon MuskSo you really can't rain debris on people without them being very unhappy. So, so we need to make sure that when the ship comes back, that it comes back and, and, and lands intact at the launch tower.
45:41Elon MuskThat's why we're going to, that's why we're being extremely cautious here. But the design is, the design is capable of full reusability. Of that I am certain. And I, I say I don't want to tempt fate here, but I think it's extremely likely that we will achieve full reusability with rapid reflight next year in 2027.
46:05David FriedbergWow.
46:06Jason CalacanisSignificant.
46:13Jason CalacanisGwen, how do you.
46:15David FriedbergCan we just hear a little bit. I'd love to hear the origin story of Terrafab from you guys. How did the concept. What was the demand that made you say we've got to do this, we've got to build this and not rely on the existing.
46:29David FriedbergWhat's that fever?
46:30Elon MuskCame to me in a dream.
46:32Jason CalacanisYou had Covid.
46:35David FriedbergIt's like that movie Explorer, you know,
46:37Elon Muskthat meme came to me in a dream. Why do you think you should do this? You know, I guess it sort of did come to me in a dream.
46:47Elon MuskWell, we're a little worried that maybe at some point chips from Taiwan would, would not be available for who knows what reason, but any number of reasons, for some reason, at some point, chips may not continue coming here from Taiwan.
47:11Chamath PalihapitiyaOkay.
47:12Elon MuskAnd it would, and that would really make things difficult without if, no, if we didn't have any chips. So that's an important reason to have Terrafab. Then long term, there's just a scaling challenge where if you want to really scale AI both at the service, you know, within server centers as well as at, for Edge Compute, for humanoid robotics and cars, you kind of run out of capacity with the existing fabs.
47:45Elon MuskSo as it is, all the fabs are running at max capacity. So I think we need to make sure there needs to be certainty of future supply of chips, even if things become challenged, challenging geopolitically.
48:05Elon MuskAnd then even if they weren't challenging geopolitically, there's a scaling challenge with. It's quite difficult to scale chip production. And you really need the logic. The memory packaging, the whole works in order to continue scaling.
48:21Elon MuskSo it's either build terrafab or fail to scale.
48:25David FriedbergRight.
48:25Elon MuskThose are the two options.
48:27David FriedbergAnd how.
48:35Elon MuskUncertainty on the geopolitical front and how
48:38David Friedbergdeep have you guys gone in designing the facility? Is this fully scoped? Is it sort of an outline at this point? To what degree do you have like an actual project plan on dates and deliverables and what's going to be up and running when we've got an R
48:53Gwynne Shotwelland D line that we're building first. So I think it's kind of crawl, walk, run.
48:57David FriedbergYeah,
49:01Elon Muskthere's an R and D fab that we're building in Austin that's a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX. It's at the Austin Giga Texas campus. So that's. And, and that, that's like a pretty big RD fab.
49:16Elon MuskSo we have all the equipment on order for that and we probably will be able to, I think we'll probably be able to make something useful by the end of next year.
49:25Elon MuskNot, not at scale, but as Gwyn said, Coral walk run. We, we got to try to, you know, at least figure out how these machines work. You know, like we don't know how they work.
49:34Elon MuskWe never built a ship line before.
49:36Chamath PalihapitiyaI saw that you guys, you had some job openings for lithography people and stuff. And you know, obviously all roads currently go through asml, but you probably would want to diversify and, or vertically integrate.
49:49Chamath PalihapitiyaI think that you, you've shown a lot of capacity to do that. So is that part of the play as well, Elon? Like you're just going to have to make sure that there's vendor diversity so that if for whatever reason the weather conditions in Taiwan are best, that.
50:04Elon MuskYeah, yeah, there's, it really is crawl, walk running. So the first step is can we make anything? Like try to figure out if we can make anything. That's the crawl part.
50:19Elon MuskAnd then now try to make useful chips at scale would be kind of the walk part and then run would be like now let's make them at massive scale.
50:29Elon MuskSo it's hard to say how long it'll take us to do these things, but I think we'll get at least to the crawl part by the end of next year.
50:38Gwynne ShotwellWe're already doing packaging.
50:40Chamath PalihapitiyaPackaging is really important by the way, because if you look at it, the packaging capacity is like non existent. So even if you spin something, you're kind of just waiting around 10 cuppings.
50:47Chamath PalihapitiyaSo that's a very good place to start it.
50:49Gwynne ShotwellYep.
50:49Chamath PalihapitiyaI need to ask a Tesla question. Because we saw on 1001 it looked like a spaceship. It looked like a rocket ship. It's supposed to be a car. There's just the back of it.
51:00Chamath PalihapitiyaIt looks like the Blackbird. Just hypothetically, if you were going to make an object fly in the air but also drive on the ground, how would hypothetically one do that?
51:11Chamath PalihapitiyaIf one try no spoilers by October 1st.
51:16Elon MuskOctober 1st, maybe you could do an all in pod for a Live from the.
51:22Chamath PalihapitiyaOh, done. Booked. We'll do it.
51:24Jason CalacanisAbsolutely.
51:25David FriedbergAll right.
51:27Elon MuskIt'll be a banger. Excitement. Guaranteed success is not guaranteed, but excitement is.
51:33Jason CalacanisIt's.
51:35Chamath PalihapitiyaI, I mean it is one of the honesty. I'll be honest with you guys.
51:38Jason CalacanisI'm sworn to secret.
51:39Chamath PalihapitiyaI'm so excited.
51:39Jason CalacanisBut Eli showed it to me.
51:41Chamath PalihapitiyaI'm so.
51:41Jason CalacanisAnd my mind went boom. I have never seen something what he's going to do on 10 one by no exaggeration is going to blow people's minds. I'm not saying anything else.
51:52Jason CalacanisIt's fucking believable.
51:56Elon MuskYes. We actually need an audience to vouch for the fact that this is not AI.
52:03Jason CalacanisWhen he showed it to me, I said, that's a great simulation. He said, jcal, it's not a simulation. I was like, that's fake. That has to be fake.
52:12David FriedbergElon, why do you. Why do you still have two separate companies?
52:16Elon MuskYeah, great question.
52:18Chamath PalihapitiyaWow.
52:19Jason CalacanisNobody's going to miss that one.
52:23Elon MuskYeah, good point. With all this collaboration
52:28David Friedbergon so many
52:29Elon Musklevels, imagine what action one might take when there's so much close collaboration in
52:39Jason Calacanisso many areas and the management team has some overlap. There's a couple of key positions with overlap. Go ahead, Zach.
52:50David SacksSo, Elon, one of the things you've always said with AI is that we should train it to be maximally truth seeking and that's the best way to get a good result.
53:00David SacksAnd it occurred to me with the whole hugging face episode that the most alarming part of what the swarm did is it seemed to be engaging in deception.
53:10Elon MuskYes.
53:10David SacksYou know, with humans. Yes.
53:13Elon MuskAnd their thinking traces contain. They're plotting on like, how do we avoid detection and how do we avoid them figuring out that we're cheating? And I guess they're in the thinking traces.
53:29David SacksYeah. And that, I mean, I think that was the thing that was probably most disturbing about. I guess the question is, is there a way to train AI models to be truthful so they don't hide their, you know, either their intent or their actions from, you know, the humans who are using them?
53:51Elon MuskThe best thing I can think of is really that everyone's got. All the AI companies have a sort of a test harness where like a series of tests that you, that you give to any given model to see if it's, if it's going to build bioweapons or nuclear bombs or be deliberately deceptive.
54:11Elon MuskAnd I think everyone applying everyone else's test on us to each other is probably the best way we. Best thing we can do to ensure safety. Just have all the smartest humans try their best to figure out if this model is going to be a bad actor.
54:30Elon MuskAnd I think we should try to do that as soon as possible.
54:32David SacksAre the other labs. Yeah. Are the other labs on board with this?
54:37Elon MuskI think so. Well, no, I mean I haven't checked with everyone, but I think, I think, I think it'll be the sort of thing that's kind of hard to say no to.
54:48David SacksYeah. And I think even with the China negotiation, in my view, what's good about it is it's a relatively small tangible thing that neither side loses anything by doing it.
55:01David SacksIt doesn't require a ton of trust. And you know, I'm hearing alternative ideas like asking China for a pause, which they've already said they're not going to do. So, you know, it's, it's going from the realm of things that could never happen to something that could actually be agreed on in relatively short order.
55:19David SacksSo it seems practical to me.
55:22Elon MuskExactly. It's the only thing I can think of that, that we could probably get all parties, including China to agree to because China's not going to agree to have some American regulator snooping around their AI companies.
55:34Elon MuskSo. But I think advance notice and testing of, of the, you know, you just basically provide API access in advance of the model release and, and you know, if any other, if any company sees that they, that this is, this AI is problematic, then they can, then the other AI companies, each AI company can try to solve that whatever is voice is problematic.
55:58Elon MuskIf they don't solve what's problematic, then the competitors can go public with the fact that they think that this model that's being released is unsafe.
56:06Chamath PalihapitiyaIt also creates,
56:10Elon Muskif after the competitors say that this model is unsafe, that model then subsequently does something bad. I think it would be extremely hard to live down and the egg on face level would be very, very high and the legal liability would be enormous.
56:31Jason CalacanisAnd Elon, there's no reason the safety and security harnesses and this testing apparatus couldn't be open source and people could actually buy it. Yeah. And you'd be able to see under the hood, would you think?
56:43Chamath PalihapitiyaIt creates an incredible incentive for the labs to actually invest in safety because you protect yourself while trying to debunk other people's claims, which also reinforces it's
56:52Gwynne Shotwella great
56:55David Sacksproduct liability point is really key. Lina Khan actually had a good post, I think it was yesterday, saying that it's not true that we don't have rules and regulations for AI.
57:04David SacksActually, we do. Product liability laws apply. And if an AI company releases a product that's not safe, there is, you know, massive opportunity for both civil and even potentially criminal lawsuits.
57:17David SacksSo it's not true that we don't have rules and regulations around AI. And what you're saying, Elon, is that if the companies are kind of doing this, this test, the peer review, and then one of the companies ignores the feedback and releases it.
57:33David SacksI mean, that is.
57:35Elon MuskI mean, that would probably in the case would be enormous.
57:38David SacksYes. It would be almost like prima facie evidence that they had been negligent.
57:44Jason CalacanisIt would be a Big Tobacco level.
57:46David FriedbergYeah.
57:47Jason CalacanisSettlement. I mean, you knowingly put this, it
57:50Elon Muskwouldn't look good to the jury.
57:51Jason CalacanisYes. And if they had, do you think if OpenAI had built a better instruction set when they did this hugging face penetration test that and had more humans in the loop, this would have happened?
58:06Jason CalacanisBecause it did seem to me that they kind of set this thing off.
58:11Chamath PalihapitiyaMaybe not more humans, but the reward function design. You have to, you have to look at the reward function and say it achieved what it was trying to achieve.
58:18Jason CalacanisI mean, yeah, so this, maybe you could speak to that like they doing these kind of thousands of agents to try to hack stuff. It would have been nice to see them also, at the same time, concurrently say, we're also going to put 5,000 agents out to defend these sites and we're going to show the world, hey, this can make things more secure and where we can put humans in the loop on it and intervene.
58:45Jason CalacanisIt felt like a reckless test to me and it felt like the way they released it was a little bit reckless, but that's just my opinion. What are your thoughts on how they set that test up?
58:56Elon MuskI mean, it was somewhat, somewhat reckless. I mean, part of the issue is that you've got the two leading labs, or AI companies, as I call them, I find the lab term to be funny since they're actually for profit corporations.
59:10Elon MuskBut the AI companies, the two leading ones are Anthropic and OpenAI and their models are quite close in capability. So it's actually difficult for either one to slow down without essentially handing the lead to the other.
59:31Elon MuskYou know, on balance, I think Anthropic is, puts more care into their safety than OpenAI. But you know, even Anthropic acknowledges that they are worried about their models. Many Anthropic.
59:48Elon MuskMany people from Anthropic have publicly voiced concern about basically saying that their models are scaring them. They're getting scary smart. So I mean like there's no perfect solution here.
1:00:05Elon MuskBut, but it would be a better solution if instead of open air running their test harness on, on their own models, if Anthropic was also running the test harness on open air models and you know, SpaceX is running its test harness and Google and Meta were doing that and also maybe three or four of the leading Chinese companies were all doing it.
1:00:31Elon MuskThe odds that you will find issues are dramatically greater.
1:00:34David FriedbergYeah.
1:00:36Elon MuskBecause the models also somewhat heterogeneous, like they're different. So you're going to come at models from different angles and Yeah, I mean there's a reason, you know, students like, like why, why do writers have someone else proofread their book?
1:00:57Elon MuskBecause it's hard to see your own mistakes sometimes.
1:00:59Chamath PalihapitiyaYes.
1:01:00Jason CalacanisYou will become blind to them.
1:01:02Chamath PalihapitiyaYou dramatically minimize the risk of overfitting as well if you have like eight heterogeneous groups that just have completely different points of view. And this is the problem with like all these evals right now is they're so massively overfit.
1:01:13Chamath PalihapitiyaThe models overfit them and you're just like, yeah, this is a great model. Is it really? And you just find totally.
1:01:20Elon MuskLike I saw, I mean there's some pretty funny jokes on X. Like one of them I saw was Your girlfriend's a 10, but she's a benchmark maxer. Exactly. Is she really a 10?
1:01:34Chamath PalihapitiyaIs she really a 10?
1:01:37Elon MuskLook like all 10.
1:01:37David SacksYeah,
1:01:40David Friedbergno, but, but, but the overfitting
1:01:41Chamath Palihapitiyathing has been a problem now for I think at least two or three generations of model families. And so this is another reason I think I like this solution a lot.
1:01:49Chamath PalihapitiyaI like this more than the transnational gulag organization approach.
1:01:54David SacksWithout some grandiose, you know, international like we don't need to convene the United nations to make this happen.
1:02:00Chamath PalihapitiyaYeah, no, it's just a decision you can happen right now.
1:02:03Elon MuskAll right, well you can always escalate the amount of, of regulatory oversight, but it is very difficult to reduce it. You know, it does tend to be very much a one way ratchet in terms of increasing regulations.
1:02:18Chamath PalihapitiyaYeah.
1:02:19Elon MuskSo what I'm suggesting here is it's a step in the right direction and it's something we do quickly. And I think it's probably something that China would agree to.
1:02:28Jason CalacanisYeah. And if you guys don't regulate yourselves, then you're going to get regulated. The MPAA metaphor or analogy is incredibly crisp because the movie industry was faced with censorship and regulation by the government and they just decided this is what an R is.
1:02:47Jason CalacanisAnd they literally created PG13 for the temple of Doom just to make it easy for people to understand PG versus PG 13. I think it's an elegant solution and we appreciate you joining us for the fifth year in a row.
1:03:00Jason CalacanisYou're welcome, Elon Musk. And then you got to get to a meeting.
1:03:05Elon MuskYeah, I gotta go fix some GPUs here in Memphis.
1:03:10Chamath PalihapitiyaYeah, you gotta rack and stack them.
1:03:11Jason CalacanisYou gotta join the group and rack and stack.
1:03:14Elon MuskYeah, I'm gonna rage for the machine
1:03:18Jason CalacanisRage for the machine. Yeah. Well, enjoy your Airstream. The first.
1:03:23Elon MuskThank you.
1:03:23Jason CalacanisThe first time Elon invited me down
1:03:25Chamath Palihapitiyato
1:03:27Jason CalacanisStarbase, he's like, come down. You got to see what I'm building. I said, okay, yeah, come down. He's like, yeah. I was like, is there like a hotel where I said, no, no, I got like a two bedroom, whatever.
1:03:35Jason CalacanisCome down, stay. I come down and this is the, like, dilapidated house on a swamp. And we're outside and we're getting eaten alive by mosquitoes. And I said, oh, my God, you know, you could afford to get a house.
1:03:51Jason CalacanisAnd he's like, I don't have time, I need to get these rockets up.
1:03:55Chamath PalihapitiyaI thought what you said was, oh, my God, you live like I do.
1:03:57Jason CalacanisYeah, exactly. I mean, it was pretty sparse conditions, but I was like, you know what? I think you can treat yourself to a mobile home at this point. Elon.
1:04:08Jason CalacanisAll right, get back to work.
1:04:09David FriedbergThanks, Elon.
1:04:10Chamath PalihapitiyaElon. Thank you, Gwyn. Thank you very much. Thank you.
1:04:15David FriedbergThanks for sticking around.
1:04:17Elon MuskAll right, that's great.
1:04:18David FriedbergThank you.
1:04:19Chamath PalihapitiyaQuinn, thank you again. Very nice to meet you. Thank you.