Without reusability the cost of spaceflight is prohibitive; Falcon 9 propellant is a tiny share of vehicle cost, like an airplane.
"if we can't make rockets reusable the cost is just prohibitive"
What's the biggest remaining Starship problem?
Q12254 answers2013-2026
Short answer
After catching the ship, the next milestone is to re-fly both booster and ship — the first full reuse of an orbital rocket — then a long tail of making it rapidly reusable.
All 254 answers, oldest to newest
2013 · 3 answers
Reusable rockets could be two orders of magnitude cheaper than expendable ones; he hoped to see vertical landing work the next year.
"if we make it reusable, then it can be two orders of magnitude cheaper"
The big breakthrough needed is a fully and rapidly reusable rocket, the way planes, bikes and cars are reusable.
"fully and rapidly reusable rocket"
2014 · 1 answer
Rockets had not evolved since the 1960s. Lower-cost engines, structure, electronics and launch operations, run with little overhead, led to roughly three-to-four-fold cost improvements over other U.S. rockets.
"roughly three to four fold improvements over the cost of other rockets in the United States"
2015 · 3 answers
Reusability is key to that future. They had worked hard on it and had not succeeded yet; the last launch had been their best chance of landing on the drone ship.
"I think key to that future is reusability"
The next-generation deep-cryo methalox system, still many years away, could achieve full reusability — maybe a two-order-of-magnitude reduction in the cost of spaceflight.
"maybe a two order of magnitude reduction in the cost of spaceflight"
Reusability needs about 2% net payload to orbit. SpaceX had been at it 13 years and not yet achieved it; he thought within the next year they would land the rocket intact.
"land the rocket intact"
2017 · 3 answers
Reusability only matters if it is rapid and complete, like an aircraft or a car; you do not send the plane to Boeing between flights.
"reusability is only relevant if it is rapid and complete"
He said they believed they could get to the point, probably by next year, where the Falcon 9 booster can be re-flown within 24 hours, with inspections only and no hardware changed, not even the paint.
"Falcon 9 booster can be re-flown um within 24 hours"
He said reusability is absolutely fundamental to a breakthrough in access to orbit and beyond. Earth's high gravity and thick atmosphere make it hard; it would be easier on Mars.
"reusability I think is absolutely fundamental to a breakthrough"
2018 · 4 answers
They wanted a highly reusable heat shield capable of absorbing heat from interplanetary entry velocities. The ship is by far the hardest because it comes in from Mars/Moon transfer velocities, way harder than low Earth orbit.
"we want to have highly reusable heat shield"
The ship part is by far the hardest. He thought they understood reusable boosters; reusable spaceships that can land propulsively are harder, so they were starting with the hard part first.
"the ship part is by far the hardest"
The ship would do about 150 metric tons to orbit fully reusable. Rapid reusability is the fundamental breakthrough needed in rocketry.
"it is the fundamental fundamental breakthrough that's needed"
From September 2018: hop flights next year (2019), high-altitude high-velocity ship flights in 2020, and first orbital flights in about two to three years if things go well (~2020–2021).
"we still anticipate doing opera flights next year and then depending upon how will this go we'll do high altitude high high velocity flights with the ship in 2020 and also start doing tests of the booster and if things go well we could be doing the first orbital flights in about two to three years"
2019 · 3 answers
He said the switch to steel was because the advanced carbon fiber was taking too long. The test for a design is whether it is in the future or not; if it is not, who cares.
"this is why the switch to steel was because the advanced carbon fiber was taking too long"
For the Starship program he said the cost of fuel and oxygen, pressurized without helium, is about $900,000 a flight. If the vehicle is fully reusable, even with other operating costs maybe around $2 million a flight, that is much less than even a tiny rocket.
"is about $900,000"
Starship fleet designed to fly 3 times per day, about 1000 flights per year, as the mind-blowing payload-to-orbit metric.
"Payload to orbit per year of Starship fleet is most mind-blowing metric, as it’s designed to fly 3X per day, which is ~1000X per year"
2020 · 5 answers
He said getting the domes right on the propellant tanks is one of the most difficult things.
"Getting the domes right on the propellant tanks is one of the most difficult things."
It is absolutely fundamental to achieve full reusability in access to space — the holy grail of space. Falcon 9 is only partially reusable; Starship has the potential for full reusability.
"it's it's absolutely fundamental to achieve full reusability and access to space this is this is the Holy Grail of space"
There is really just one thing that matters: a fully and rapidly reusable rocket, reasonably big. Without that, we're nowhere.
"there's really just one thing that matters that is a fully and rapidly reusable rocket"
After immense effort Falcon 9 achieved booster reusability and is mostly reusing the fairing, but he called that architecture close to a local maximum.
"achieve reusability of the booster"
Four essential elements of making life multiplanetary: rapid complete reuse, low-cost propellant, orbital refilling, and propellant production at the destination.
"Rapid & complete rocket reuse, low cost propellant, orbital refilling & propellant production at destination are the four essential elements of making life multiplanetary"
2021 · 6 answers
In July 2021 he said the tower and chopstick arms to catch the rocket were as complex as either stage, if not more.
"the chopstick arms to catch the rocket are as complex as either of the stages."
They took the legs off the booster and would have the tower catch it, which he admitted sounded insane.
"That's why we took the legs off the booster and just have the tower catch it."
The ship has to be safe enough for people without an escape system, because you cannot use one on the Moon or Mars.
"the ship has to be safe enough for people without an escape system, because otherwise you can't go to the Moon, can't go to Mars."
The ship would be caught by Mechazilla too, with no landing legs; legs are only needed for Moon and Mars until there is local infrastructure.
"And ship will be caught by Mechazilla too. As with booster, no landing legs. Those are only needed for moon & Mars until there is local infrastructure."
With Starship they are trying to have a fully reusable orbital rocket; getting back from orbit needs a heavy-duty heat shield.
"have a fully reusable"
The first orbital flight they were hoping to do in January. There is a lot of risk; he would not say the first launch is likely to be successful, but they would make a lot of progress.
"the first orbital flight uh we're hoping to do in in January"
2022 · 4 answers
In February 2022 he was highly confident they would get Starship to orbit that year.
"I feel at this point highly confident that we'll get to orbit this year."
By the end of 2022 he expected to produce a ship and a booster per month.
"And I think by the end of this year we'll be able to produce a ship and a booster per month."
Full reusability would be relatively easy on Mars (weaker gravity, thin air); it is just barely possible on Earth.
"Full reusability would be, well, like relatively easy on Mars which has around 37-38% of Earth's gravity and about 1% atmospheric density. It's just barely possible to achieve reusability on Earth."
The critical breakthrough for a space-bearing civilization is a fully and rapidly reusable orbital rocket. Falcon 9 is about 70 to 80 percent reusable; Starship is going for 100 percent reusable.
"fully and rapidly reusable rocket"
2023 · 49 answers
Asked You back in Texas, he said if remaining tests go well, we will attempt a Starship launch next month
"If remaining tests go well, we will attempt a Starship launch next month"
He said raptor start is now reliable on the test stand under most conditions. Now we’re working on dynamically adapting the start sequence based on increasingly difficult propellant inlet pressures & temps. Operating with low...
"Raptor start is now reliable on the test stand under most conditions. Now we’re working on dynamically adapting the start sequence based on increasingly difficult propellant inlet pressures & temps. Operating with low pressure, “warm” liquid oxygen is particularly important."
He said stage 1 to stage 2 mass ratio is too high on Falcon 9, necessitating a long entry burn. This is fixed on Starship.
"Stage 1 to stage 2 mass ratio is too high on Falcon 9, necessitating a long entry burn. This is fixed on Starship."
He said spaceX will be ready to launch Starship in a few weeks, then launch timing depends on FAA license approval. Assuming that takes a few weeks, first launch attempt will be near end of third week of April, aka …
"SpaceX will be ready to launch Starship in a few weeks, then launch timing depends on FAA license approval. Assuming that takes a few weeks, first launch attempt will be near end of third week of April, aka …"
He said provided there is no serious launch anomaly, SpaceX will deliver 80% of Earth’s payload to orbit this year. Not counting Starship.
"Provided there is no serious launch anomaly, SpaceX will deliver 80% of Earth’s payload to orbit this year. Not counting Starship."
He said high-strength stainless steel armor is needed to protect the launch stand from the world’s biggest blowtorch! Even steel will be eroded fast by the Starship booster plume. We will need to make a water-cooled steel jac...
"High-strength stainless steel armor is needed to protect the launch stand from the world’s biggest blowtorch! Even steel will be eroded fast by the Starship booster plume. We will need to make a water-cooled steel jacket to achieve full reusability."
He said and we need to add 3 more Raptor Vacuum engines, because it’s inevitable
"And we need to add 3 more Raptor Vacuum engines, because it’s inevitable"
He said congrats @SpaceX team on an exciting test launch of Starship! Learned a lot for next test launch in a few months.
"Congrats @SpaceX team on an exciting test launch of Starship! Learned a lot for next test launch in a few months."
After the first Starship flight in April 2023 he put the chance of reaching orbit that year at 80% or more.
"I think we've probably got an 80% plus probability of reaching orbit this year."
He expected Starship to reach orbit but said regular reuse of both booster and ship would probably take a few more years.
"I think we're going to get to orbit and then it'll probably take us a few more years to achieve reusability on a regular basis"
After the first integrated flight he reported that the pad damage was quite small and looked quickly repairable.
"I'm glad to report that the pad damage is actually quite small and looks like it can be repaired quickly"
He explains that at T+27 seconds engine 19 lost communications and an explosion knocked out heat shields around several engines.
"something bad happened at T +27 seconds because Engine 19 lost all communications and some kind of explosion happened to knock out the heat shields of engines 17, 18, 19 and 20."
He expects a much more robust engine situation on Booster 9 because its engine shields were designed in rather than retrofitted.
"I think we'll see a much more robust engine situation with Booster nine."
He says SpaceX went to great lengths to isolate the engines, so one failure does not knock out others or damage the stage.
"we've gone through so much trouble to isolate the engines. And so if one engine goes wrong, it does not knock out other engines or damage the rest of the stage."
In April 2023 he said he would be surprised if Starship did not reach orbit that year.
"I would be surprised if we exit this year without getting to orbit."
In April 2023 he said the rocket and pad would probably be ready to launch again in six to eight weeks.
"from a rocket standpoint and pad standpoint, we are probably ready to launch in six to eight weeks."
He says the Raptor throat is believed to have the highest heat flux of any human-made object.
"The raptor throat we believe is the highest heat flux of any human made object ever."
He explains why Starship pressurizes with its own propellants rather than scarce helium.
"helium is in very short supply and extremely expensive, so it's way better to essentially pressurize with the liquid form of the oxidized raw fuel."
He says the big priority for the next flight is not losing thrust vector control, helped by electric actuation on Booster 9.
"The big things that are important for the next flight are ensuring we don't lose thrust vector control."
He says the launch debris was basically a human-made sandstorm and SpaceX will install a water-jacketed steel sandwich under the pad.
"Basically a human made sandstorm. But we don't want to do that again."
He characterizes the first flight as a success because its goal was to learn a lot.
"since the goal of the flight was to learn a lot and we learned a lot, I would characterize it as a success."
He says without good engine isolation, one engine failure can domino into others.
"if you do not have good engine isolation and an engine failure can domino to other engines or to parts of the stage, then you have an extremely unreliable design."
He says the longest lead item before the next flight is probably requalifying the flight termination system, which took too long to rupture the tanks.
"The longest lead item on that is probably requalification of the flight termination system"
He says moving from hydraulic to electric engine actuation isolates engines so one failure cannot take out many.
"if you have some kind of failure in the hydraulic system, the electric actuated engines will be much more isolated"
He says the goal of the early Starship flights is information, not payload.
"Basically the goal of these early missions is just information."
He says the vehicle structural margins appear better than expected.
"The vehicle structural margins appear to be better than we expected."
He says the main goal for the next flight is ensuring nothing central that affects multiple engines can fail.
"the thing we want to make sure of probably most with the next flight is that we do not have that any kind of central nexus that controls that affects multiple engines is extremely robust"
He says the N1 is the closest rocket to Starship that has flown.
"the N1 is the closest to starship of any rocket that's flown"
He notes the Soviet N1 failed despite A-plus players with maximum motivation.
"So it's like so A plus players, maximum motivation. And still the N1 failed."
He says Starship is about twice the mass and about 60% more thrust than the N1.
"So we're about twice the mass and about I think 60% more thrust than an N1."
He says there should be no rock tornado on the next flight.
"we should not have a rock tornado with the next flight."
He said no, we still have it. Chamber converging section desperately wants to melt next-level. We also have thermal barrier coatings.
"No, we still have it. Chamber converging section desperately wants to melt next-level. We also have thermal barrier coatings."
He said raptor chamber wall might have the highest heat flux of anything ever made
"Raptor chamber wall might have the highest heat flux of anything ever made"
He said if we can delete & integrate enough secondary structure (small, fiddly bits), then we can locally protect rest & delete engine heat shields
"If we can delete & integrate enough secondary structure (small, fiddly bits), then we can locally protect rest & delete engine heat shields"
He said raptor V3 just achieved 350 bar chamber pressure (269 tons of thrust). Congrats to @SpaceX propulsion team! Starship Super Heavy Booster has 33 Raptors, so total thrust of 8877 tons or 19.5 million pounds.
"Raptor V3 just achieved 350 bar chamber pressure (269 tons of thrust). Congrats to @SpaceX propulsion team! Starship Super Heavy Booster has 33 Raptors, so total thrust of 8877 tons or 19.5 million pounds."
Asked Making great progress on our deep dive comparing both the hardware and philosophies of ..., he said starship payload is 250 to 300 tons to orbit in expendable mode. Improved thrust & Isp from Raptor will enable ~6000 ton liftoff mass.
"Starship payload is 250 to 300 tons to orbit in expendable mode. Improved thrust & Isp from Raptor will enable ~6000 ton liftoff mass."
He said and deliver over 200 tons of payload to a useful orbit with full & rapid reusability. 50 rockets flying every 3 days on average enables over a megaton of payload to orbit per year – enough to build a self-sustaining c...
"And deliver over 200 tons of payload to a useful orbit with full & rapid reusability. 50 rockets flying every 3 days on average enables over a megaton of payload to orbit per year – enough to build a self-sustaining city on Mars."
He said looks like we can increase Raptor thrust by ~20% to reach 9000 tons (20 million lbs) of force at sea level
"Looks like we can increase Raptor thrust by ~20% to reach 9000 tons (20 million lbs) of force at sea level"
He said preparing for next Starship flight! This time, I think we have ~50% probability of reaching orbital velocity, however even getting to stage separation would be a win.
"Preparing for next Starship flight! This time, I think we have ~50% probability of reaching orbital velocity, however even getting to stage separation would be a win."
The second Starship is stacked at Starbase and ready to go (September 2023).
"we have the second one stacked at Star base"
He said based on the Falcon launch plan for next year, SpaceX will deliver ~90% of all Earth payload to orbit. Starship will take that to >99% in future years. These magnitudes are madness to consider, but necessary to make c...
"Based on the Falcon launch plan for next year, SpaceX will deliver ~90% of all Earth payload to orbit. Starship will take that to >99% in future years. These magnitudes are madness to consider, but necessary to make consciousness multiplanetary."
Starship is designed to be fully and rapidly reusable on both stages (the four Rs). Flight 2 tries hot staging; the ship has a heat shield for re-entry.
"designed to be fully reusable"
He said this is significantly more than any country has launched with their entire rocket fleet in a year. Second is peak Soviet Union at ~500 tons. For a present day comparison, the rest of the world has delivered ~250 tons ...
"This is significantly more than any country has launched with their entire rocket fleet in a year. Second is peak Soviet Union at ~500 tons. For a present day comparison, the rest of the world has delivered ~250 tons to orbit so far this year, mostly by China."
Asked From a technical readiness standpoint, what’s a feasible timeline for Flight 3, he said starship Flight 3 hardware should be ready to fly in 3 to 4 weeks. There are three ships in final production in the high bay (as can be seen from the highway).
"Starship Flight 3 hardware should be ready to fly in 3 to 4 weeks. There are three ships in final production in the high bay (as can be seen from the highway)."
He said could make them faster, but engine production is not the limiting factor. I’m very excited about the next-gen Raptor engine that is robust enough not to require a heat shield. Will also have more thrust, higher Isp an...
"Could make them faster, but engine production is not the limiting factor. I’m very excited about the next-gen Raptor engine that is robust enough not to require a heat shield. Will also have more thrust, higher Isp and many other improvements."
He said starship is intended to carry a lot of people on tens of thousands of flights, so needs to be extremely reliable over time. It will be.
"Starship is intended to carry a lot of people on tens of thousands of flights, so needs to be extremely reliable over time. It will be."
He said starship has 33 engines! If an engine failure is isolated, then many engines greatly increases reliability (Starship only loses <3% of thrust). If not, then reliability is terrible. The difference is at least 2 orders...
"Starship has 33 engines! If an engine failure is isolated, then many engines greatly increases reliability (Starship only loses <3% of thrust). If not, then reliability is terrible. The difference is at least 2 orders of magnitude."
He said and, if all goes well, SpaceX’s total launch mass to orbit will increase ~50% next year, not including Starship
"And, if all goes well, SpaceX’s total launch mass to orbit will increase ~50% next year, not including Starship"
He said the super heavy booster can be used more frequently than the ship, as it returns in about ~6 minutes and can theoretically be ready for reflght in an hour. The ship needs to complete at least one orbit, but often seve...
"The super heavy booster can be used more frequently than the ship, as it returns in about ~6 minutes and can theoretically be ready for reflght in an hour. The ship needs to complete at least one orbit, but often several to have the ground track line back up with the launch site, so reuse may only be daily. This means that ship production needs to be roughly an order of magnitude higher than booster production. To achieve Mars colonization in roughly three decades, we need ship production to be 100/year, but ideally rising to 300/year."
2024 · 80 answers
He said starship will have a small spin on the way to Mars. Even a tiny gravity vector is better than none.
"Starship will have a small spin on the way to Mars. Even a tiny gravity vector is better than none."
He said raptor is roughly 10X more complex than Merlin, but worth it
"Raptor is roughly 10X more complex than Merlin, but worth it"
He said starship is the first rocket/spacecraft capable of making life multiplanetary. What really matters for the preservation and extension of consciousness is extending it beyond Earth to the rest of the solar system and, ...
"Starship is the first rocket/spacecraft capable of making life multiplanetary. What really matters for the preservation and extension of consciousness is extending it beyond Earth to the rest of the solar system and, ultimately, to millions of stars."
He said if things go well, SpaceX will put about 50% more tonnage in orbit this year using Falcon, which would be above 90% market share. Once Starship is in full swing building a city on Mars, it will do ~99% of all payload ...
"If things go well, SpaceX will put about 50% more tonnage in orbit this year using Falcon, which would be above 90% market share. Once Starship is in full swing building a city on Mars, it will do ~99% of all payload to orbit & beyond, as that objective requires about a megaton to Earth orbit per year Unless other organizations aim for making life multiplanetary, their payload to orbit will necessarily be in the noise, as there isn’t enough to do just launching satellites."
He said this Starship is designed to traverse our entire solar system and beyond to the cloud of objects surrounding us. A future Starship, much larger and more advanced, will travel to other star systems.
"This Starship is designed to traverse our entire solar system and beyond to the cloud of objects surrounding us. A future Starship, much larger and more advanced, will travel to other star systems."
He said the right way to grade any technology is not comparing it to competitors (too easy), but comparing it to the limit of physics. That is, for example, how we grade Starlink latency, which shows that there is still a *lo...
"The right way to grade any technology is not comparing it to competitors (too easy), but comparing it to the limit of physics. That is, for example, how we grade Starlink latency, which shows that there is still a *lot* of room for improvement! Same for $/ton to Mars."
He said getting ready for Flight 4 of Starship! Goal of this mission is for Starship to get through max reentry heating with all systems functioning.
"Getting ready for Flight 4 of Starship! Goal of this mission is for Starship to get through max reentry heating with all systems functioning."
He said at 5000 tons, Starship is the largest flying object ever made. Thrust is more than double the Saturn V moon rocket. It is the first spaceship design capable of making life multiplanetary. Goal of the next mission is t...
"At 5000 tons, Starship is the largest flying object ever made. Thrust is more than double the Saturn V moon rocket. It is the first spaceship design capable of making life multiplanetary. Goal of the next mission is to make it through the meteorically extreme heat of reentry."
Catching the booster with the tower in 2024 was in the realm of possibility; he put the odds at about 80–90%.
"the odds of us actually being able to catch the the booster with the mechazilla arms this year I think I I don't want to attempt to fate no wood but I think the odds of actually catching the booster uh with the tower probably like 80 90% this year"
His guess was ship reuse next year (2025); he thought it highly likely they would bring the ship to a controlled ocean point in 2024.
"my guess is probably next year year is when we will be able to reuse Starship but I think it's it's I think it's highly likely that this year we will bring Starship to or the ship the ship side of it to a controlled point in the ocean"
He said raptor operates close to the ragged edge of physics
"Raptor operates close to the ragged edge of physics"
He said it could work, but the mass and complexity is higher than a heat shield
"It could work, but the mass and complexity is higher than a heat shield"
He said as it turns out, future versions of Raptor will ultimately exceed 700k lb-F! Honing T/W, Isp and reliability are much harder than thrust though. Rocket engines desperately want to explode.
"As it turns out, future versions of Raptor will ultimately exceed 700k lb-F! Honing T/W, Isp and reliability are much harder than thrust though. Rocket engines desperately want to explode."
He said a booster catch attempt is highly likely this year. For the ship, we need to be sure that it will survive reentry and retain aero control authority, so that means at least 2 successes landing at a precise point in the...
"A booster catch attempt is highly likely this year. For the ship, we need to be sure that it will survive reentry and retain aero control authority, so that means at least 2 successes landing at a precise point in the ocean."
He said full & rapid reusability of booster & ship and orbital refilling of ship are the 2 fundamental technologies we aim to solve by the end of next year. Those are the critical pieces necessary to make life multiplanetary.
"Full & rapid reusability of booster & ship and orbital refilling of ship are the 2 fundamental technologies we aim to solve by the end of next year. Those are the critical pieces necessary to make life multiplanetary."
The fundamental invention is rapidly reusable reliable rockets.
"rapidly reusable reliable Rockets"
He said a super reliable, light, reusable heat shield is the biggest technical challenge remaining for Starship
"A super reliable, light, reusable heat shield is the biggest technical challenge remaining for Starship"
He said spaceX might exceed 90% of all Earth payload to orbit later this year. Once Starship is launching at high rate, probably >99%. Has to be or we can’t build a city on Mars or base on moon. We file almost no patents, so ...
"SpaceX might exceed 90% of all Earth payload to orbit later this year. Once Starship is launching at high rate, probably >99%. Has to be or we can’t build a city on Mars or base on moon. We file almost no patents, so nothing stopping competition from copying us."
He said starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks. Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating. Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework.
"Starship Flight 4 in about 2 weeks. Primary goal is getting through max reentry heating. Worth noting that no one has ever succeeded in creating a fully reusable heat shield. Shuttle required >6 months of rework."
He said falcon and Dragon are the best in the world at what they do. The SpaceX Starship is alien technology. Nothing like it has ever been attempted, as it is capable of lifting the entire pressurized volume of the Internati...
"Falcon and Dragon are the best in the world at what they do. The SpaceX Starship is alien technology. Nothing like it has ever been attempted, as it is capable of lifting the entire pressurized volume of the International Space Station in a single flight and will do several flights per day."
He said there is a reason it hasn’t been solved, despite countries/companies pouring about a trillion dollars cumulatively into rocket development over 80 years
"There is a reason it hasn’t been solved, despite countries/companies pouring about a trillion dollars cumulatively into rocket development over 80 years"
He said starship already reached orbital velocity, which is success for all other rockets. Achieving full reusability will be profound not for reasons of valuation, but because it will enable consciousness to extend permanent...
"Starship already reached orbital velocity, which is success for all other rockets. Achieving full reusability will be profound not for reasons of valuation, but because it will enable consciousness to extend permanently beyond Earth."
He said I’m excited about the future upgrade to Starship that will extend the rocket length and take total thrust to 10,000 tons, which is ~3X Saturn V!
"I’m excited about the future upgrade to Starship that will extend the rocket length and take total thrust to 10,000 tons, which is ~3X Saturn V!"
The toughest remaining problem was a reusable orbital heat shield; the shuttle took months and thousands of people to refurbish.
"the toughest remaining problem is a, a reusable orbital heat shield."
From June 2024 he was hopeful they would achieve full reusability by the next year (2025); no prior design even had success as a possible outcome.
"I'm hopeful that we'll achieve achieve it by next year."
Long term he wanted about a thousand ships a year to build a city on Mars; Starfactory itself was capable of a hundred a year.
"long term probably be making a thousand a year of the ship. So, thousand a year. Yeah. Well, you know, gotta build a city on Mars."
After IFT-4 he said they need to make the flap hinge area far more robust, going hardcore on it so hinge/flap will not be why the next flight fails to return intact.
"We, we, we need to make the, the flap hinge area far more robust"
He said i hope other rocket organizations deliver more mass to orbit, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. We don’t even try to block their progress by filing patents, which almost all technology companies do.
"I hope other rocket organizations deliver more mass to orbit, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. We don’t even try to block their progress by filing patents, which almost all technology companies do."
He said starship Flight 4, with many improvements, aiming to launch on Thursday! The main goal of this mission is to get much deeper into the atmosphere during reentry, ideally through max heating.
"Starship Flight 4, with many improvements, aiming to launch on Thursday! The main goal of this mission is to get much deeper into the atmosphere during reentry, ideally through max heating."
He said note, a newer version of Starship has the forward flaps shifted leeward. This will help improve reliability, ease of manufacturing and payload to orbit.
"Note, a newer version of Starship has the forward flaps shifted leeward. This will help improve reliability, ease of manufacturing and payload to orbit."
He said yes. I should note that we have since moved to a proprietary stainless steel alloy, developed internally, as 301 in plate form had interlaminar toughness issues at cryogenic temperatures.
"Yes. I should note that we have since moved to a proprietary stainless steel alloy, developed internally, as 301 in plate form had interlaminar toughness issues at cryogenic temperatures."
Asked Why is Starship made of stainless steel, he said we did switch to a passive (mostly) glass heat shield, rather than actively-cooled steel, as the latter was heavier, at least according to initial calculations
"We did switch to a passive (mostly) glass heat shield, rather than actively-cooled steel, as the latter was heavier, at least according to initial calculations"
He said why is Starship made of stainless steel? This article from 5 years ago explains the reasons. Worth noting that the ship would have failed on reentry if made of aluminum or carbon fiber, as they can’t take the heat.
"Why is Starship made of stainless steel? This article from 5 years ago explains the reasons. Worth noting that the ship would have failed on reentry if made of aluminum or carbon fiber, as they can’t take the heat."
He said speaks to the incredible resilience of stainless steel at temperature. We will further hone our SX300 alloy to withstand even higher temperatures.
"Speaks to the incredible resilience of stainless steel at temperature. We will further hone our SX300 alloy to withstand even higher temperatures."
He said thanks Chris! A fully and immediately reusable orbital heat shield, which (as you know) has never been made before, is the single toughest problem remaining. Being able to iterate with many ideas on many ships is key ...
"Thanks Chris! A fully and immediately reusable orbital heat shield, which (as you know) has never been made before, is the single toughest problem remaining. Being able to iterate with many ideas on many ships is key to solving this."
He said despite loss of many tiles and a damaged flap, Starship made it all the way to a soft landing in the ocean! Congratulations @SpaceX team on an epic achievement!!
"Despite loss of many tiles and a damaged flap, Starship made it all the way to a soft landing in the ocean! Congratulations @SpaceX team on an epic achievement!!"
He said worth mentioning that switching to ultra hard, cold-rolled stainless steel for Starship is what led me to make Cybertruck out of it too
"Worth mentioning that switching to ultra hard, cold-rolled stainless steel for Starship is what led me to make Cybertruck out of it too"
He said starship booster makes soft landing in water, next landing will be caught by the tower arms
"Starship booster makes soft landing in water, next landing will be caught by the tower arms"
Asked I'd love to know if there were similar symptoms on any of the other 3 flaps. Given #Spa..., he said left flap also got very hot, but was less damaged. Rear flaps seemed to be ok, based on their control authority, but probably lost some tiles.
"Left flap also got very hot, but was less damaged. Rear flaps seemed to be ok, based on their control authority, but probably lost some tiles."
He said starship is the most power flying object ever created. Currently over twice the thrust of Saturn V and, with future upgrades, three times the thrust (10,000 tons of force).
"Starship is the most power flying object ever created. Currently over twice the thrust of Saturn V and, with future upgrades, three times the thrust (10,000 tons of force)."
He said we could build a lot more, but the next version of Raptor is really the one to scale up production. We begin testing it in McGregor within a week or so. Regenerative cooling and secondary flow paths have been made int...
"We could build a lot more, but the next version of Raptor is really the one to scale up production. We begin testing it in McGregor within a week or so. Regenerative cooling and secondary flow paths have been made integral to the whole engine, thus no heat shield is required. Nothing quite like this has ever been done before. Taking away the engine heat shields also removes the need for 10+ tons of fire suppression behind the engine heat shield, as any gas leaks simply enter the already super-heated plasma surrounding the engines, rendering the leaks irrelevant. Raptor 3 also has higher thrust and Isp."
He said almost all that matters regarding Starship is that it enables consciousness to extend permanently beyond Earth. Everything else is in the noise.
"Almost all that matters regarding Starship is that it enables consciousness to extend permanently beyond Earth. Everything else is in the noise."
He said starship V3 should be capable of close to 200 tons of payload when operating as a tanker
"Starship V3 should be capable of close to 200 tons of payload when operating as a tanker"
He said in a few years, we will finally have a Raptor 3/4 vacuum version (giant nozzle) that has an Isp of 380
"In a few years, we will finally have a Raptor 3/4 vacuum version (giant nozzle) that has an Isp of 380"
He said important to note that the induced mass (mass required by a given engine design that is not the engine itself) of Raptor 3, while far better than Raptor 2, still has a lot of room for improvement. Thrust will exceed 3...
"Important to note that the induced mass (mass required by a given engine design that is not the engine itself) of Raptor 3, while far better than Raptor 2, still has a lot of room for improvement. Thrust will exceed 300 tons with Raptor 3.x (thrust/mass>200), enabling 10,000 tons of thrust at liftoff and there might be up to 5 sec of Isp gain over time. Getting close to the limit of known physics."
He said and it no longer requires a heat shield. Everything is regeneratively cooled.
"And it no longer requires a heat shield. Everything is regeneratively cooled."
He said the amount of work required to simplify the Raptor engine, internalize secondary flow paths and add regenerative cooling for exposed components was staggering. As a result Raptor 3 doesn’t require any heat shield, eli...
"The amount of work required to simplify the Raptor engine, internalize secondary flow paths and add regenerative cooling for exposed components was staggering. As a result Raptor 3 doesn’t require any heat shield, eliminating heat shield mass & complexity, as well as the fire suppression system. It is also lighter, has more thrust and has higher efficiency than Raptor 2. Truly, a work of art."
He said all the small plumbing & wiring had to be deleted or incorporated into the primary structure, because Raptor 3 will have no heat shield. Also, all parts have to be actively cooled in some way, so we added regenerative...
"All the small plumbing & wiring had to be deleted or incorporated into the primary structure, because Raptor 3 will have no heat shield. Also, all parts have to be actively cooled in some way, so we added regenerative cooling where there was no existing fluid or gas flow."
He said falcon 9 is now ~75% reusable and requires several days between flights. Starship is designed to be 100% reusable and ultimately be ready to refly within an hour of landing. This is the key to becoming a multiplanet c...
"Falcon 9 is now ~75% reusable and requires several days between flights. Starship is designed to be 100% reusable and ultimately be ready to refly within an hour of landing. This is the key to becoming a multiplanet civilization."
Starship is the first design where full reusability is a possible outcome, and it's being proven with each launch.
"Starship is the first rocket design where success is one of the possible out with full reusability"
He said yeah, game-changer! We do still use COPVs for a few things on Starship, like nitrogen purge and engine spin start.
"Yeah, game-changer! We do still use COPVs for a few things on Starship, like nitrogen purge and engine spin start."
He said definitely for super high pressure tanks, but a stainless steel Starship is roughly similar in mass to a carbon fiber version (which is where we started out) and way cheaper/easier to make. Stainless gets that massive...
"Definitely for super high pressure tanks, but a stainless steel Starship is roughly similar in mass to a carbon fiber version (which is where we started out) and way cheaper/easier to make. Stainless gets that massive bump in strength at cryo and needs much less shielding for hypersonic entry. Hats off to Charlie Bossart and the OG Atlas engineers!"
He said max payload to standard Earth reference orbit is actually ~180 tons for Starship when it is fully reusable and ~300 tons if expendable. Latter number is the apples-to-apples number comparing Starship to Saturn V. >100...
"Max payload to standard Earth reference orbit is actually ~180 tons for Starship when it is fully reusable and ~300 tons if expendable. Latter number is the apples-to-apples number comparing Starship to Saturn V. >100 tons to the Starlink orbit is the operational spec minimum."
He said there is definitely a lot of room for improvement of Raptor 3, but now the fundamental architecture is right
"There is definitely a lot of room for improvement of Raptor 3, but now the fundamental architecture is right"
He said a stainless steel Starship is essentially the same mass as an advanced carbon fiber or aluminum-lithium version, given that it is a reusable rocket, as steel can handle much higher heat loads, requiring less shielding...
"A stainless steel Starship is essentially the same mass as an advanced carbon fiber or aluminum-lithium version, given that it is a reusable rocket, as steel can handle much higher heat loads, requiring less shielding, and its strength increases dramatically at cryogenic temperatures. No paint or other surface coating is needed for stainless. Those add mass and cost and tend to get scratched or burn off. We are also tweaking the steel alloying elements and forming methods to achieve higher material specs than usual."
Asked Can anyone explain to me why they’re so convinced SpaceX can’t launch unmanned Starship..., he said a surprising number of people don’t understand what a profound level unlock full reusability is. It is the holy grail of rocketry and the fundamental breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary. Starship is design...
"A surprising number of people don’t understand what a profound level unlock full reusability is. It is the holy grail of rocketry and the fundamental breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary. Starship is designed for full & rapid reusability – launch, land, refill propellant & launch again immediately! This obviously means that flight rate can be far higher than Falcon 9, which still requires a new upper stage for each mission. Falcon 9 is now launching every 2 to 3 days. The other crucial element, for missions beyond Earth, is orbital refilling. This requires docking with ourselves for propellant transfer, which is far easier than docking with the Space Station, something we already do several times a year."
He said spaceX will deliver ~90% of all of Earth’s mass to orbit this year. Once Starship is flying regularly, SpaceX will deliver >99% of mass to orbit, unless some other company creates a large, fully reusable rocket.
"SpaceX will deliver ~90% of all of Earth’s mass to orbit this year. Once Starship is flying regularly, SpaceX will deliver >99% of mass to orbit, unless some other company creates a large, fully reusable rocket."
He said looks like Starship might fly on Sunday! This the largest & most powerful flying object ever made at more than double the thrust of the Saturn V Moon rocket. We will try to catch it upon return to launch site using th...
"Looks like Starship might fly on Sunday! This the largest & most powerful flying object ever made at more than double the thrust of the Saturn V Moon rocket. We will try to catch it upon return to launch site using the Mechazilla arms like giant chopsticks (like Karate Kid)!"
He said good chance that Starship achieves full stack reusability in 2025, which is the critical breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary
"Good chance that Starship achieves full stack reusability in 2025, which is the critical breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary"
He said achieving materially positive payload margin to a useful orbit with a fully & rapidly reusable rocket has eluded prior attempts. Many have tried to embark upon this path only to give up when it became clear that their...
"Achieving materially positive payload margin to a useful orbit with a fully & rapidly reusable rocket has eluded prior attempts. Many have tried to embark upon this path only to give up when it became clear that their design would have negative or negligible payload margin. This is an extremely difficult problem to solve, given the strong gravity of Earth, whereas it is easy on Mars and trivial on the Moon. In the early years of SpaceX, I was not sure that success was even in the set of possible outcomes! Fortunately, it just barely is, but requires doing unusual things like shifting the mass needed for final velocity attenuation and post-landing stabilization of the rocket (so it doesn’t tip over in wind) to the ground, rather than carrying heavy landing gear on both stages."
He said just inspected the Starship booster, which the arms have now placed back in its launch mount. Looks great! A few outer engine nozzles are warped from heating & some other minor issues, but these are easily addressed. ...
"Just inspected the Starship booster, which the arms have now placed back in its launch mount. Looks great! A few outer engine nozzles are warped from heating & some other minor issues, but these are easily addressed. Starship is designed to achieve reflight of its rocket booster ultimately within an hour after liftoff. The booster returns within ~5 minutes, so the remaining time is reloading propellant and placing a ship on top of the booster."
He said raptor 3 will aim for 300 tons of thrust at liftoff, so 10,000 tons of combined thrust for 33 engines
"Raptor 3 will aim for 300 tons of thrust at liftoff, so 10,000 tons of combined thrust for 33 engines"
He said starship achieved a precise, soft landing in the ocean, paving the way for return to launch site and being caught by the tower arms, like the booster. Full & rapid reusability improves the cost of access to orbit & be...
"Starship achieved a precise, soft landing in the ocean, paving the way for return to launch site and being caught by the tower arms, like the booster. Full & rapid reusability improves the cost of access to orbit & beyond by >10,000%. It is the fundamental technology breakthrough needed to make life multiplanetary and for us to become a true spacefaring civilization."
He said starship will lengthen in the next few years. 10 years from now, there will probably be a much wider diameter Starship too.
"Starship will lengthen in the next few years. 10 years from now, there will probably be a much wider diameter Starship too."
He said there isn’t even enough helium produced on Earth to supply a high flight rate Starship
"There isn’t even enough helium produced on Earth to supply a high flight rate Starship"
He said starship is now more than twice as powerful as the Saturn V Moon rocket and, in a year or so, it will be three times as powerful at 10,000 metric tons of thrust. More importantly, it is designed to be fully reusable, ...
"Starship is now more than twice as powerful as the Saturn V Moon rocket and, in a year or so, it will be three times as powerful at 10,000 metric tons of thrust. More importantly, it is designed to be fully reusable, burning ~80% liquid oxygen and ~20% liquid methane (very low cost propellant). This enables cost per ton to orbital space to be ~10,000% lower than Saturn V. Starship is the difference between being a multiplanet or single planet civilization. Building a new world on Mars is now possible."
He said with Starship, humanity finally has a rocket design capable of making life multiplanetary
"With Starship, humanity finally has a rocket design capable of making life multiplanetary"
He said starship will go halfway around the world in ~45 mins
"Starship will go halfway around the world in ~45 mins"
He said the chart below is due for an update, but is roughly accurate. Flight 6 liftoff thrust is ~7500 tons and mass is ~5000 tons. The tanker version of Starship V3 will weigh over 7000 tons. By comparison, the heaviest Boe...
"The chart below is due for an update, but is roughly accurate. Flight 6 liftoff thrust is ~7500 tons and mass is ~5000 tons. The tanker version of Starship V3 will weigh over 7000 tons. By comparison, the heaviest Boeing 747 is less than 500 tons fully loaded."
He said current Starship is more than twice as powerful as the Saturn V Moon rocket. Starship V3, which hopefully flies in about a year, will be 3X more powerful.
"Current Starship is more than twice as powerful as the Saturn V Moon rocket. Starship V3, which hopefully flies in about a year, will be 3X more powerful."
He said the objectives for Starship Flight 6 are: 1. Restart of Raptor engines in vacuum. 2. Daylight landing of the ship. 3. Higher peak heating (steeper) reentry. 4. Faster/harder booster catch. There are thousands of small...
"The objectives for Starship Flight 6 are: 1. Restart of Raptor engines in vacuum. 2. Daylight landing of the ship. 3. Higher peak heating (steeper) reentry. 4. Faster/harder booster catch. There are thousands of small design changes also being tested."
He said special version of Starship: delete heat shield & flaps, add landing legs. This could (of course) only be used between trans lunar orbit and lunar surface, given no heat shield or flaps.
"Special version of Starship: delete heat shield & flaps, add landing legs. This could (of course) only be used between trans lunar orbit and lunar surface, given no heat shield or flaps."
He said starship is clearly not causing harm to the local environment, so this is just common sense. You can’t even tell the difference between a before and after launch photo, except that the rocket is no longer on the launc...
"Starship is clearly not causing harm to the local environment, so this is just common sense. You can’t even tell the difference between a before and after launch photo, except that the rocket is no longer on the launch mount!"
He said starship is by far the most powerful flying object ever created
"Starship is by far the most powerful flying object ever created"
After a successful ocean landing he said they would do one more ocean landing of the ship, then attempt a tower catch if that went well.
"Successful ocean landing of Starship! We will do one more ocean landing of the ship. If that goes well, then SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower."
He said a truly reusable orbital-entry-class heat shield is the single biggest technology problem remaining
"A truly reusable orbital-entry-class heat shield is the single biggest technology problem remaining"
He said i am confident that we will figure out a fully reusable (technically, a high multi-flight reusable) heat shield in 2025
"I am confident that we will figure out a fully reusable (technically, a high multi-flight reusable) heat shield in 2025"
He said it has more than twice the thrust already. When Raptor reaches 300 tons of thrust at liftoff, which Raptor 3.x can probably do (certainly Raptor 4 will), then it will have 10k metric tons of thrust at liftoff, which i...
"It has more than twice the thrust already. When Raptor reaches 300 tons of thrust at liftoff, which Raptor 3.x can probably do (certainly Raptor 4 will), then it will have 10k metric tons of thrust at liftoff, which is 22.5M lb-F, almost exactly three times Saturn V."
He said let’s not get carried away! SpaceX will probably do ~99% of Earth payload to orbit in 2026, despite the rest of industry growing. Assuming rocket launches by competitors grow at their current rate, SpaceX will probabl...
"Let’s not get carried away! SpaceX will probably do ~99% of Earth payload to orbit in 2026, despite the rest of industry growing. Assuming rocket launches by competitors grow at their current rate, SpaceX will probably do 99.9% of payload to orbit in 10 years, but I hope I’m wrong. It would be better if other organizations also helped colonize Mars."
He said a truly reusable orbital heat shield has never been made, but I think SpaceX has a decent chance of solving it in 2025 and solving it well in 2026
"A truly reusable orbital heat shield has never been made, but I think SpaceX has a decent chance of solving it in 2025 and solving it well in 2026"
2025 · 62 answers
Asked What are you, some kind of an expert on heat shields or something, he said yup, I literally work on heat shields every week
"Yup, I literally work on heat shields every week"
He said there will probably be another 10m added to the Starship stack before we increase diameter
"There will probably be another 10m added to the Starship stack before we increase diameter"
He said 33 Raptor engines with enough thrust to lift a skyscraper off its foundations
"33 Raptor engines with enough thrust to lift a skyscraper off its foundations"
He said the booster flight was a success, the ship flight was 1/4 successful, hence cup being ~5/8 full. New ship forward flaps, higher thrust engines and tile adherence on ascent were tested. Improved heat shield performance...
"The booster flight was a success, the ship flight was 1/4 successful, hence cup being ~5/8 full. New ship forward flaps, higher thrust engines and tile adherence on ascent were tested. Improved heat shield performance was the only major thing that wasn’t tested, along with the “Pez” payload dispenser. Probably solved in next month’s launch. The 9 meter diameter version of Starship will probably fly ~10,000 times, so this is barely a bump in the road. Doesn’t change the likely date at which Mars becomes self-sufficient."
He said 33 -> 13 -> 3 It will be very difficult to get Raptor to 300 tons of thrust, but … not impossible
"33 -> 13 -> 3 It will be very difficult to get Raptor to 300 tons of thrust, but … not impossible"
The heat shield: no one has made a fully reusable orbital heat shield; SpaceX vertically integrated tile manufacturing.
"the toughest problem is the heat shield"
He said literally about a hundred experiments running simultaneously on that heat shield, which is part of why it looks so patchy
"Literally about a hundred experiments running simultaneously on that heat shield, which is part of why it looks so patchy"
He said we are honing in on the V3 Starship design. @SpaceX is tracking to a Starship launch rate of once a week in ~12 months. That will yield ~100 tons to @Starlink orbit with full reusability. Profound breakthrough.
"We are honing in on the V3 Starship design. @SpaceX is tracking to a Starship launch rate of once a week in ~12 months. That will yield ~100 tons to @Starlink orbit with full reusability. Profound breakthrough."
He said tonnage to orbit is all that matters. SpaceX will probably do over 90% of all Earth mass to orbit, China around 5% and rest of world (including rest of America) about 5%. Next year, SpaceX will probably do 95% of mass...
"Tonnage to orbit is all that matters. SpaceX will probably do over 90% of all Earth mass to orbit, China around 5% and rest of world (including rest of America) about 5%. Next year, SpaceX will probably do 95% of mass to orbit even though our competitors will also grow. In less than 10 years, SpaceX will do 99% of payload to orbit and beyond."
He said first reflight of the Starship Super Heavy rocket booster coming up soon!
"First reflight of the Starship Super Heavy rocket booster coming up soon!"
He said starship will carry >99% of mass to orbit of Earth
"Starship will carry >99% of mass to orbit of Earth"
He pointed to catching both booster and ship so Starship is the first fully reusable orbital rocket, the essential breakthrough to make life multiplanetary.
"the getting Starship uh to be fully reusable"
After booster catches, the next milestone is catching the ship, hoped for later in 2025, maybe in two or three months.
"the next thing we need to do is is catch the ship too. So, we haven't done this yet, but we will. So, that's what we hope to demonstrate later this year, maybe as soon as 2 or 3 months from now."
A truly reusable orbital heat shield has never been developed; even the shuttle needed months of tile work.
"one of the toughest problems to solve is the uh reusable heat shield. Um so so no no one has ever developed a truly reusable orbital heat shield."
With Raptor 3 plus Starship/booster version 3 he said they should have a rapidly reusable reliable rocket with orbital refilling — the ingredients for making life multiplanetary — aiming to launch V3 at the end of 2025.
"a rapidly reusable reliable rocket uh with orbital refilling. Basically all of the ingredients necessary uh to make life mult multilanetary will be achieved with version three of Starship which we're aiming to launch for the first time at the end of this year."
They could produce a ship roughly every two or three weeks; the aim is a thousand ships a year, three a day.
"we're we're now at the point where we can produce a ship roughly every 2 or 3 weeks. Now, we we don't always produce a ship every 2 or 3 weeks because we are making design upgrades. Um, but ultimately, we're aiming for the ability to produce a,000 ships a year. So, three ships a day."
Two weeks before the May 2025 Starship update, he said later that year, if fate smiles, the ship would be caught by the tower like the booster.
"Later this year, if fate smiles upon SpaceX, the ship will be caught by the tower, just like the booster"
He said starship will get taller. It’s a little short rn.
"Starship will get taller. It’s a little short rn."
He said but we need a heat shield that can handle Mars atmospheric entry conditions with a heavy payload, so the ballistic coefficient will necessarily be high. Steel is unfortunately hopeless. No one has ever made a truly re...
"But we need a heat shield that can handle Mars atmospheric entry conditions with a heavy payload, so the ballistic coefficient will necessarily be high. Steel is unfortunately hopeless. No one has ever made a truly reusable orbital heat shield, so this is an extremely tough problem. [As you know] The Shuttle’s shields required extensive rework between flights. It will take many more design iterations for SpaceX to make the shield work well. We had to build the entire supply chain from glass and alumina to finished tiles, which is why the SpaceX heat shield factory at the Cape is shockingly enormous."
He said starship made it to the scheduled ship engine cutoff, so big improvement over last flight! Also, no significant loss of heat shield tiles during ascent. Leaks caused loss of main tank pressure during the coast and re-...
"Starship made it to the scheduled ship engine cutoff, so big improvement over last flight! Also, no significant loss of heat shield tiles during ascent. Leaks caused loss of main tank pressure during the coast and re-entry phase. Lot of good data to review. Launch cadence for next 3 flights will be faster, at approximately 1 every 3 to 4 weeks."
He said early Atlas rockets used stainless, but it was certainly (incorrectly) considered to be far inferior to composites. All things considered, including strain-hardened strength at cryo, toughness, ease of welding on atta...
"Early Atlas rockets used stainless, but it was certainly (incorrectly) considered to be far inferior to composites. All things considered, including strain-hardened strength at cryo, toughness, ease of welding on attachments, no need for paint and resistance to high temperatures during atmospheric entry, steel beats composites for Starship. And it costs 2% as much."
He said that’s an old pic. Starship will get longer.
"That’s an old pic. Starship will get longer."
He said i think we need to move on from this ancient space station. If necessary, deep space Starship missions with astronauts can fill the gap.
"I think we need to move on from this ancient space station. If necessary, deep space Starship missions with astronauts can fill the gap."
He said starship will have 42 engines
"Starship will have 42 engines"
He says Starship is one of the hardest engineering challenges that exists. The single biggest remaining problem is a fully reusable orbital heat shield, which has never been done.
"solving the heat shield problem is I think probably the single biggest remaining challenge"
He said shortly before the next flight he will do a live technical update on Starship.
"Shortly before the next flight, I will do a live technical update on Starship, going over progress to date and engineering/production/launch plans for the future."
He said this is V2 Starship, and V3 hopefully launches by the end of the year.
"This is V2 Starship. V3 hopefully launches end of year."
He said Starship 10 was launching that Sunday, Grok 5 begins training the next month, and Tesla Autopilot V14 also the next month.
"It’s all part of broader vision/strategy 😂 Starship 10 is launching on Sunday. Grok 5 begins training next month. Tesla Autopilot V14 also next month. Long-term strategy is compelling."
He said making a fully reusable orbital rocket is one of the hardest engineering problems of all time, much harder than going to the Moon; he is cautiously optimistic Starship will achieve full reusability next year and orbital refilling the same year.
"Making a fully reusable orbital rocket of any design is one of the hardest engineering problems of all time. Much, much harder than going to the Moon, which is why it still hasn’t been solved. I am cautiously optimistic that Starship will achieve full reusability next year. The other critical technology, albeit much easier, is orbital refilling. If fortune favors us, that will also be achieved next year. Then consciousness and life as we know it can extend to the planets and hence to the stars."
Asked when Starship will have 42 engines, he said V4 will have 42 engines on a longer ship and will fly in 2027, while V3 should be through production and testing by year end with heavy flight activity the next year.
"Starship V4 will have 42 engines when 3 more Raptors are added to a significantly longer ship. That will fly in 2027. Starship V3 is a massive upgrade from the current V2 and should be through production and testing by end of year, with heavy flight activity next year."
He said a Starship catch is probably flight 13 to 15, depending on how well V3 flights go.
"Starship catch is probably flight 13 to 15, depending on how well V3 flights go"
He said heat-shield tiles almost entirely stayed attached so the latest upgrades look good, with red from oxidized metallic test tiles and white from insulation where tiles were deliberately removed.
"Worth noting that the heat shield tiles almost entirely stayed attached, so the latest upgrades are looking good! The red color is from some metallic test tiles that oxidized and the white is from insulation of areas where we deliberately removed tiles."
Unless there are major setbacks, he expects to recover the ship next year and demonstrate full reusability, catching booster and ship with over 100 tons to a useful orbit. The remaining hard problem is a fully reusable heat shield; the shuttle tiles needed nine months of repair after every flight.
"no one's ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield"
He said SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times next year with Starship V3, which is easier than docking with the Space Station because they are docking with themselves.
"SpaceX will do orbital refilling several times next year with Starship V3. Because we are simply docking with ourself, this is a much easier problem than docking with the Space Station, which SpaceX already does several times a year."
He said Starship is designed to be fully reusable, unlike expendable rockets, and in expendable mode you add at least 100 metric tons of payload capability.
"This utter moron also doesn’t understand that Starship is designed to be fully reusable, unlike pointless rockets that are not. In expendable mode, add at least 100 metric tons to the payload capability."
He said heat-shield design and production is getting good.
"Heat shield design and production is getting good"
He said they were preparing for the last launch of Starship 2.
"Preparing for the last launch of Starship 2"
He said once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, SpaceX will probably deliver more than 95% of Earth payload to orbit, and in 2027 maybe as high as 98%.
"Once Starship is flying frequently with real payloads next year, then SpaceX will probably deliver >95% of total Earth payload to orbit, despite others, especially China, continuing to grow. In 2027, maybe as high as 98%."
He said Starship is real and no AI was used to design it.
"Starship is real. And no AI was used to design it."
Starship is the first design where full, rapid reusability is even possible. They have not achieved it yet, including sometimes blowing up while exploring flight limits and pulling heat-shield tiles, but he thinks they will get full reusability next year.
"I think I think we'll achieve it next year"
He said public viewing of Starship is easy from South Padre Island, and the rocket factory and launch towers are right by a public highway.
"Yes, public viewing of Starship is easy from South Padre Island and the view is excellent. Also, the rocket factory and launch towers are right by a public highway."
He said stainless steel was the right call, heat-shield design has progressed, and they will need to iterate on it for a long time.
"Stainless steel for ftw. Lot of progress on heat shield design, but this is something we will need to iterate on for a long time."
He said the new heat shield performed much better, which was the main objective.
"The new heat shield performed much better. That was the main objective."
He said Starship was made using zero AI, and that future digital superintelligences would have to admit it is pretty good for a bunch of monkeys.
"Starship was made using zero AI. Future digital superintelligences would have to admit that it’s pretty good for a bunch of monkeys."
He said the Starship 4 crewed variant will have more than 1000 cubic meters of pressurized volume, about 10% more than the Space Station.
"The Starship 4 crewed variant will have >1000m^3 of pressurized volume, so 10% more than the Space Station"
He said Starship is a planet-colonizer class rocket, and the magnitude of that task makes every other space transport task trivial.
"Starship is a planet-colonizer class rocket. The magnitude of that task makes every other space transport task trivial."
He said SpaceX is moving like lightning compared with the rest of the space industry, and Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission.
"They won’t. SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words."
He said a competitor added Starship aspects (stainless steel and methalox) to a Falcon 9 architecture, which could beat Falcon 9, but Starship is in another league.
"They have added aspects of Starship, such as use of stainless steel and methalox, to a Falcon 9 architecture, which would enable it to beat Falcon 9. But Starship in another league."
He said a competitor might outperform Falcon in 5 years, by which time SpaceX will be launching Starship.
"If they are lucky, it might outperform Falcon in 5 years, by which time SpaceX will be launching Starship"
He said the next Starship launch is version 3, radically better than version 2, and in a few years V4 will double the payload of V3.
"A reminder that rapid evolution of technology is the only way to win. Those who don’t innovate rapidly are doomed to fail. The next Starship launch is version 3, which is radically better than version 2. Then, in a few years, V4 will double the payload of V3."
He said it will take competitors over 5 years to reach Falcon 9 reliability and rate, by which time SpaceX will have moved to Starship and be doing over 100 times Falcon's annual payload.
"It will take them over 5 years to reach Falcon 9 levels of reliability and production/launch rate, by which time SpaceX will have transitioned to Starship and be doing over 100 times the annual payload to orbit of Falcon"
He said despite competitor growth, especially China, SpaceX will probably go from ~90% of Earth's payload to orbit to ~98% in about 24 months due to Starship.
"Despite significant growth by our competitors, especially China, SpaceX will probably increase from ~90% of Earth’s total payload to orbit to ~98% in about 24 months due to Starship"
He said Starship is designed to carry 100 people.
"Starship is designed to carry 100 people"
He said about 90% of orbital rocket launches so far this year were Falcon, with Starship standing out.
"This is an accurate picture of orbital rocket launches so far this year. 90% Falcon with the massive @SpaceX Starship standing out very clearly."
He said Raptor 3 will probably be 2 to 4 times better than Merlin in $/ton of thrust and beat it in TWR, and Raptor 4 should beat Merlin by >10X in $/ton of thrust.
"Raptor 3 will probably be 2 to 4 times better than Merlin in $/ton of thrust and will exceed Merlin in thrust to weight ratio. Raptor 4 should beat Merlin by >10X in $/ton of thrust, with further improvement in TWR and ISP."
He said SpaceX has done everything so far without AI, even Starship, and with AI he cannot imagine the possibilities.
"Thanks :) SpaceX team is incredible. All done without AI so far, even Starship. With AI, I can’t even imagine the possibilities."
He said when Starship is launching several times a day in a few years, SpaceX will be ~99% of Earth payload mass to orbit even if others triple their current rate.
"SpaceX is accelerating rapidly. When Starship is launching several times a day in a few years, SpaceX will be ~99% of all Earth payload mass to orbit, even if the others triple their current launch rate."
Starship is the first rocket design where full, rapid reusability is even in the set of possible outcomes; future historians will treat it as profound.
"it's the first time that there's been any rocket design where full and rapid reusability is possible"
He said Raptor 3 is the most advanced rocket engine ever made by far, and subsequent versions will make life multiplanetary and progress civilization toward Kardashev II.
"The most advanced rocket engine ever made by far. Raptor 3 and subsequent versions will make life multiplanetary and progress civilization towards Kardashev II."
He said press claims of an $800B SpaceX raise are inaccurate; SpaceX has been cash-flow positive for years, does twice-yearly buybacks, and valuation moves with Starship, Starlink and global direct-to-cell spectrum.
"There has been a lot of press claiming @SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate. SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors. Valuation increments are a function of progress with Starship and Starlink and securing global direct-to-cell spectrum that greatly increases our addressable market. And one other thing that is arguably most significant by far."
He said Starship probably grows by more than 20% long-term.
"Starship probably grows by >20% long-term"
On Starlink's growth, he said Starship and Starlink V3 will be a major step change.
"Starship and Starlink V3 will be a major step change"
2026 · 31 answers
The key breakthrough SpaceX hopes to prove this year is full Starship reusability, which he says would drop the cost of access to space by a factor of a hundred — like reusing an aircraft instead of throwing it away.
"the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of a hundred"
He said Starship 4 will be another 10% to 20% longer.
"Starship 4 will be another 10% to 20% longer"
He said Starship will add about 3 orders of magnitude to SpaceX mass to orbit and beyond.
"Starship will add ~3 orders of magnitude to SpaceX mass to orbit and beyond"
He said Starship V4's stretch goal is 300 tons of thrust per engine with 33 engines, 10,000 tons total — 3 times Saturn V.
"Stretch goal for Starship V4 is 300 tons of thrust per engine with 33 engines, so 10,000 tons of total thrust. That is 3 times the power of the Saturn V Moon rocket."
He said Starship would launch in 6 weeks.
"Starship launch in 6 weeks https://t.co/3HFf4H5cc4"
A fully reusable orbital heat shield; ships have soft-landed but lost too many tiles.
"It's having the heat shield be reusable"
He said Raptor V4 engines need 300 metric tons of force each so 33 engines make 10,000 tons; he uses 'ton' for 10,000 newtons.
"Raptor V4 engines will need to deliver 300 (metric) tons of force for the 33 engines to generate a collective 10,000 tons of force. Note, I use ton to refer to 10,000 Newtons of force. I just don’t like the way tonne-force looks and nobody knows what a Newton is. It also makes estimating things like acceleration in your head easier when vehicle mass is also in tons."
He said Starship V4 will have 3 more vacuum engines, making the total stack engine count 42.
"The Starship V4 ship will have 3 more vacuum engines, making the total stack engine count 42, as foretold in the prophecy"
He said Starship V4 tanker will deliver over 200 tons of propellant per flight, so about 5 or 6 tanker flights to refill a lunar transit Starship, which shouldn't be a problem at over 10k flights/year.
"Starship V4 Tanker version will deliver >200 tons of propellant per flight, so more like 5 or 6 tanker flights to refill the lunar transit Starship in orbit. Shouldn’t be too much of a problem if we’re doing >10k flights/year."
Asked about a lunar vacation deposit, he said let's get Starship V3 flying repeatedly and then sure.
"Let’s get Starship V3 flying repeatedly and then sure"
Catching the ship with the tower would wait until two perfect ocean soft landings, because breakup risk over land had to be very low.
"Should note that SpaceX will only try to catch the ship with the tower after two perfect soft landings in the ocean. The risk of the ship breaking up over land needs to be very low."
He said Raptor 3 is engineering art.
"Raptor 3 is engineering art"
He said high-cycle reliable engine reflight without replacement, refurbishment or laborious inspection is about as hard as a rapidly reusable heat shield, plus thousands of smaller structural challenges.
"High-cycle, reliable engine reflight without replacement, refurbishment or laborious inspection is about the same degree of difficulty as a rapidly reusable heat shield. And then there are thousands of smaller challenges throughout the primary structure. This is a crazy hard problem."
He said the Starship V3 heat shield held well after Chris Hadfield posted on reentry temperatures.
"The Starship V3 heat shield held well"
Starship is the first rocket design capable of full and rapid reusability, which he says is required both to make life multiplanetary and to climb the Kardashev scale. Without reuse you cannot make enough rockets.
"it's the first rocket design uh, that is capable of full and rapid reusability"
He said a Starship flight used higher acceleration on purpose to test heat-shield tile attachment at high dynamic pressure, and the test was successful.
"This flight intentionally had much higher acceleration to test how well the heat shield tiles would remain attached at high dynamic pressure. Test was successful."
He said the latest Starship heat shield design looks great.
"Latest heat shield design looks great!"
He said they got all the heat shield data they needed and then some.
"We got all the heat shield data we needed and then some! 😀"
Unless data review found problems, SpaceX would attempt to catch the ship with the tower on the next flight.
"Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight"
On the August 2026 earnings call he said they could possibly catch the ship as soon as the next flight.
"we could possibly catch the ship as soon as the next flight."
Assuming regulatory approval, they would attempt to catch the ship with the tower on the next flight, tentatively the end of August 2026.
"attempt to uh catch the ship with the tower on the next flight which is tenatively scheduled for the end of this month."
He said he would consider the heat shield problem solved at that point, pending a look at the ship then floating in the ocean.
"I think I'd consider the heat shield problem solved at this point."
Starship had to be super reliable for satellites before people; with a high launch rate he expected human-level safety by the end of next year (2027).
"we need to make Starship uh super reliable for satellites uh before we put any people on board. But but we we are expecting to have a very high launch rate and thus achieve um a level of safety needed for humans very quickly uh probably by the end of next year."
He said Raptor 3 is an engineering work of art, and even AI will be impressed.
"Raptor 3 is an engineering work of art Even AI will be impressed"
After ocean landing practice, he said they would probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months, and first reflight of the ship would be end of 2026 or early 2027.
"Looks like we will probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months. If there had been a tower out to sea where we practiced landing the ship, it would have been caught. First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next. That will be a fork in the road of history for consciousness reaching the stars."
Flight 14 is the last flight before a catch attempt; if it goes well, flight 15 will try to catch the ship with the tower arms. He puts first-catch odds at least 50–60% and says full reusability with rapid reflight is extremely likely in 2027.
"if this flight goes well, then on flight 15, we will try to catch the ship"
He recommended against a new company trying to make Raptor 3: it looks simple outside (no heat shield) but inside has complex geometry that needs highly modified 3D metal printing.
"I would recommend against a new company trying to make Raptor 3. While it appears simple on the outside (necessary to survive extreme heat without a heat shield), the inside has very complex geometry that can only be manufactured using highly modified 3D metal printing."
He said Starship's first orbital flight was successful after SpaceX confirmed orbital insertion.
"First orbital flight of Starship successful!"
He said Starship Flight 14 would launch in about 30 minutes and linked the live broadcast.
"Starship Flight 14 launches in ~30 mins https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1qxvvenMPMQxB"
He said Starship Flight 14 was aiming to launch the next morning.
"Starship Flight 14 aiming to launch tomorrow morning"
After catching the ship, the next milestone is to re-fly both booster and ship — the first full reuse of an orbital rocket — then a long tail of making it rapidly reusable.
"the next big milestone would be to refly um both the booster and the ship"