Topics
- About this site
- X, free speech and content moderation
- Accusations of antisemitism, Nazism and racism
- Meaning of life and the philosophy of curiosity
- Mars and becoming multiplanetary
- AI risk, safety and values
- AI compute, energy and AI in space
- The economy, work and money after AI
- Work ethic, urgency and building companies
- Timelines, self-driving and robots
- Politics, government and DOGE
- Simulation theory and the most interesting outcome
- Goodness, philanthropy and trust
- Neuralink
- Population decline
- UFOs and secret technology
- Starlink
- Grok and xAI
Then and now
- Starship to Mars in 2026: then vs now
From “default plan” to “low probability shot”: the 2026 Mars window, dated then revised.
- Unsupervised self-driving: then vs now
Robotaxi target years from 2019 to 2026, quote by quote.
- Optimus production: then vs now
Volume production dates for the Optimus robot, 2024 to 2026.
- Tesla Semi production: then vs now
Volume production dates for the Tesla Semi, 2017 to 2026.
- Starship full reuse and ship catch: then vs now
Ship catch, reflight and orbital refilling targets, 2024 to 2026.
- Robotaxi launch dates: then vs now
Robotaxi service and Cybercab launch dates, 2019 to 2026.
- Tesla Roadster 2: then vs now
Production and demo dates for the next-generation Roadster, 2017 to 2026.
- Neuralink first human implant: then vs now
First-human implant dates and stated scale for Neuralink, 2020 to 2026.
- Hyperloop and Boring tunnels: then vs now
First routes, opening dates and the Hyperloop, 2017 to 2025.
- The 4680 battery cell: then vs now
Battery Day cost targets for the 4680 cell, 2020 to 2026.
- The $25,000 Tesla: then vs now
A $25,000 Tesla in “about three years”, 2018 to 2024.
- Starlink subscribers: then vs now
Stated reach and subscriber counts for Starlink, 2020 to 2026.