How to Build the Future
Questions on ElonsFAQ asked in this interview (4)
Transcript
0:00Sam AltmanToday we have Elon Musk. Elon, thank you for joining us.
0:02Elon MuskYeah, thanks for having me.
0:04Sam AltmanSo we want to spend the time today talking about your view of the future and what people should work on. So to start off, could you tell us, you famously said when you were younger there were five problems that you thought were most important for you to work on.
0:17Sam AltmanIf you were 22 today, what would the five problems that you would think about working on be?
0:22Elon MuskWell, first of all, I think if somebody is doing something that is useful to the rest of society, I think that's a good thing. Like it doesn't have to change the world if you're doing something that has high value to people.
0:37Elon MuskAnd frankly, even if it's something, if it's like just a little game or some improvement in photo sharing or something, if it has a small amount of good for a large number of people, that's, I mean, I think that's fine.
0:55Elon MuskLike stuff doesn't need to be changed the world just to be good. But in terms of things that I think are most likely to affect the future of humanity, I think AI is probably the single biggest item in the near term that's likely to affect humanity.
1:12Elon MuskSo it's very important that we have the advent of AI in a good way. That is something that if you could look into crucible and see the future, you would like that outcome because it is something that could go wrong, as we've talked about many times.
1:35Elon MuskAnd so we really need to make sure it goes right. I think AI working on AI and making sure it's great future, that's the most important thing I think right now.
1:48Elon MuskThe most pressing item then obviously anything to do with genetics. If you can actually solve genetic diseases, if you can prevent dementia or Alzheimer's or something like that with genetic reprogramming, that would be wonderful.
2:08Elon MuskSo I think this, genetics might be the sort of second most important item. I think having a high bandwidth interface to the brain, like we're currently bandwidth limited. We have a digital tertiary self in the form of our email capabilities like computers, phones, applications, we're effectively superhuman, but we are extremely bandwidth constrained in that interface between the cortex and your sort of that tertiary digital form of yourself.
2:41Elon MuskAnd helping solve that bandwidth constraint would be, I think very important for the future as well.
2:47Sam AltmanSo one of the, I think most common questions I hear young people, ambitious young people ask is, I want to be the next Elon Musk. How do I do that?
2:57Sam AltmanObviously, the next Elon Musk will work on very different things than you did. But what have you done or what did you do when you were younger that you think sort of set you up to have a big impact?
3:08Elon MuskWell, I think first of all I should say that I do not expect to be involved in all these things. So the five things that I thought about at the time in college, quite a long time ago, 25 years ago, making life multi planetary, accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, the Internet, broadly speaking, and then genetics and AI.
3:37Elon MuskI think I didn't expect to be involved in all of those things. I actually at the time in college, I sort of thought helping with electrification of cars was how I sought out and that's actually what I worked on as an intern was advanced ultracapacitors to see if they there would be a breakthrough relative to batteries for energy storage in cars.
4:01Elon MuskAnd then when I came out to go to Stanford, that's what I was going to be doing my grad studies on was working on advanced energy storage technologies for electric cars.
4:11Elon MuskAnd then I put that on hold to start an Internet company in 95 because there does seem to be like a time for particular technologies when they're at a steep point in the inflection curve.
4:28Elon MuskAnd I didn't want to do a PhD at Stanford and then watch it all happen. And I wasn't entirely certain that the technology I'd be working on would actually succeed.
4:40Elon MuskYou can get a doctorate on many things that ultimately do not have a practical bearing on the world. And I wanted to, I really was just trying to be useful.
4:51Elon MuskThat's the optimization. It's like what can I do that would actually be useful?
4:57Sam AltmanDo you think people that want to be useful today should get PhDs?
5:01Elon MuskMostly not.
5:04Sam AltmanWhat is the best way to use this?
5:05Elon MuskSome yes, but mostly not.
5:08Sam AltmanHow should someone figure out how they can be most useful?
5:11Elon MuskWhatever this thing is that you're trying to create, what would, what would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect.
5:21Elon MuskSo that's why I think having something that has that makes a big difference but affects a sort of small to moderate number of people is great, as is something that makes even a small difference but affects a vast number of people.
5:35Elon MuskLike the area under the curve? Yeah, exactly. Area under the curve is, would actually be roughly similar for those two things. So it's actually really about just trying to be useful and matter when you're
5:49Sam Altmantrying to estimate probability of success. So you say this thing will be really useful. Good area under the curve. I guess use the example of SpaceX when you made the go decision that you were actually going to do that, this was kind of a very crazy thing at the time.
6:01Elon MuskVery crazy. Very crazy. Yeah. People are not shy about saying that, but I kind of agree, I agreed with them that it was quite crazy. Crazy if, if the objective was to achieve the best risk adjusted return, starting our company is insane.
6:20Elon MuskBut that was not my objective. I simply come to the conclusion that if something didn't happen to improve rocket technology, we'd be stuck on Earth forever. And the big aerospace companies had just had no interest in radical innovation.
6:36Elon MuskAll they wanted to do was try to make their old technology slightly better every year. And in fact, sometimes it would actually get worse. And particularly in rockets, it's pretty bad.
6:49Elon MuskIn 69 we were able to go to the moon with a Saturn V and then the space shuttle could only take people to low Earth orbit. And then the space shuttle retired.
6:56Elon MuskAnd that trend is basically trends to zero. If you also think technology just automatically gets better every year, but it actually doesn't. It only gets better if smart people work like crazy to make it better.
7:09Elon MuskThat's how any technology actually gets better. And by itself, technology, if people don't work on it, it actually will decline. I mean, you can look at the history of civilizations, many civilizations, and look at say ancient Egypt where they were able to build these incredible pyramids and then they basically forgot how to build pyramids.
7:31Elon MuskAnd then even hieroglyphics, they forgot how to read hieroglyphics. So you look at Rome and how they're able to build these incredible roadways and aqueducts and indoor plumbing, and they forgot how to do all of those things.
7:44Elon MuskAnd there are many such examples in history. So I think should always bear in mind that, you know, entropy is not on your side.
7:59Sam AltmanOne thing I really like about you is you are unusually fearless and willing to go in the face of other people telling you something is crazy. And I know a lot of pretty crazy people, you still stand out.
8:09Sam AltmanWhere does that come from? Or how do you think about making a decision when everyone tells you this is a crazy idea? Or where do you get the internal strength to do that?
8:17Elon MuskWell, first of all, I'd say I actually think, I think I fear, feel fear quite strongly. So it's not as though I just have the absence of fear, I feel it quite strongly.
8:28Elon MuskBut there are times when something is important enough, you believe in it enough, that you do it in spite of fear.
8:37Sam AltmanSo speaking of important things like people
8:38Elon Muskshouldn't think, people shouldn't think. Well, I feel fear about this and therefore I shouldn't do it. It's normal to feel fear. Like you'd have to. There have to be something mentally wrong if you didn't feel fear.
8:53Sam AltmanSo you just feel it and let the importance of it drive you to do it anyway.
8:57Elon MuskYeah, you know, actually something that can be helpful is fatalism to some degree. If you just accept the probabilities, then that diminishes fear. So when starting SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were less than 10% and I just accepted that actually probably I would just lose everything, but that maybe would make some progress if we could just move the ball forward.
9:25Elon MuskEven if we died, maybe some other company could pick up the baton and keep moving it forward. So that would still do some good. Yeah, same with Tesla. I thought the odds of a car company succeeding were extremely, extremely low.
9:40Sam AltmanWhat do you think the odds of the Mars colony are at this point today?
9:45Elon MuskWell, oddly enough, I actually think they're pretty good.
9:51Sam AltmanSo like, when can I go, okay,
9:55Elon Muskat this point I am certain there is a way. I'm certain that success is one of the possible outcomes for establishing a self sustaining moss colony, in fact growing moss colony.
10:05Elon MuskI'm certain that that is possible. Whereas until maybe a few years ago I was not sure that success was even one of the possible outcomes. It's a meaningful number of people going to Mars.
10:16Elon MuskI think this is potentially something that can be accomplished in about 10 years, maybe sooner, maybe nine years. I need to make sure that SpaceX doesn't die between now and then and that I don't die, or if I do die, that space someone takes over who will continue that.
10:35Sam AltmanYou shouldn't go on the first launch.
10:37Elon MuskYeah, exactly. The first launch will be robotic anyway.
10:42Sam AltmanI want to go. Except for the Internet latency.
10:45Elon MuskYeah, the Internet latency would be pretty significant. Mars is roughly 12 light minutes from the sun and Earth is 8 light minutes. So at closest approach, Mars is 4 light minutes away.
10:55Elon MuskAt furthest approach is 20, a little more because you have to can't sort of talk directly through the sun.
11:01Sam AltmanSpeaking of really important problems, AI. So you have been outspoken about AI. Could you talk about what you think the positive future for AI looks like and how we get there?
11:13Elon MuskOkay, I mean, I do want to emphasize that this is not really something that I advocate or this is not prescriptive. This is simply hopefully predictive because people say, well, like this is something that I want to occur instead of something I think that probably is the best of the available alternatives.
11:42Elon MuskThe best of the available alternatives that I can come up with, and maybe somebody else can come up with a better approach or better outcome is that we achieve democratization of AI technology, meaning that no one company or small set of individuals has control over advanced AI technology.
12:02Elon MuskI think that that's very dangerous. It could also get stolen by somebody bad. Like some evil dictator of a country could send their intelligence agency to go steal it and gain control.
12:16Elon MuskIt just becomes a very unstable situation. I think if you've got any, any incredibly powerful AI, you just don't know who's going to control that. So it's not as.
12:28Elon MuskI think that the risk is that the AI would develop a will of its own right off the bat. I think the concern is that someone may use it in a way that is bad.
12:40Elon MuskAnd even if they weren't going to use it in a way that's bad, but somebody could take it from them and use it in a way that's bad. That I think is quite a big danger.
12:48Elon MuskSo I think we must have democratization of AI technology and make it widely available. And that's the reason that obviously Yumi and the rest of the team created OpenAI, was to help with the democrat, help spread out AI technology so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few.
13:11Elon MuskBut then of course, that needs to be combined with solving the high bandwidth interface to the cortex.
13:21Sam AltmanHumans are so slow.
13:23Elon MuskHumans are so slow. Yes, exactly. But we already have a situation in our brain where we've got the cortex and limbic system. And the limbic system is kind of the.
13:35Elon MuskThat's the primitive brain. It's kind of like your instincts and whatnot. And then the cortex is the thinking upper part of the brain. Those two seem to work together quite well occasionally.
13:49Elon MuskYour cortex and limbic system may disagree, but they generally works pretty well. Generally works pretty well. And it's like rare to find someone who. I've not found someone who wishes to either get rid of their cortex or get rid of their limbic system.
14:02Sam AltmanVery true. Yeah.
14:03Elon MuskThat's unusual. So. So I think if we can effectively merge with AI by improving the neural link between your cortex and your digital extension yourself, which already, like I said, already exists, just has a bandwidth issue.
14:26Elon MuskAnd then effectively you become an AI human symbiote. And if that then is widespread with anyone who wants it can have it, then we solve the control problem as well.
14:41Elon MuskWe don't have to worry about some sort of evil dictator AI because we are the AI collectively. That seems like the best outcome. I Can think of.
14:52Sam AltmanSo you've seen other companies in their early days that start small and get really successful. Hope I don't regret asking this on camera, but how do you think OpenAI is going?
15:00Sam AltmanAs a six month old company?
15:03Elon MuskI think it should go pretty well. I think we've got a really talented group at OpenAI. Seems like that. Yeah, really talented team and they're working hard. OpenAI is structured as say a 501c3 nonprofit, but many nonprofits do not have a sense of urgency.
15:21Elon MuskIt's fine, they don't have to have a sense of urgency, but OpenAI does. I think people really believe in the mission. I think it's important and it's about minimizing the risk of existential harm in the future.
15:40Elon MuskAnd so I think it's going well. I'm pretty impressed with what people are doing and the talent level. And obviously we're always looking for great people to join who believe in the mission.
15:52Sam AltmanClose to 40 people now. It's all right, just a few more questions before we wrap up. How do you spend your days now? Like what do you allocate most of your time to?
16:03Elon MuskMy time is mostly split. Well, it's between SpaceX and Tesla. And of course I try to spend part of every week at OpenAI. So I spend most of the time, I spend basically half a day at OpenAI most weeks.
16:21Elon MuskAnd then I have some OpenAI stuff that happens during the week. But other than that it's really SpaceX.
16:26Sam AltmanAnd what do you do when you're SpaceX or Tesla? What does your time look like there?
16:31Elon MuskYeah, so that's a good question. I think a lot of people think I must spend a lot of time with media or on business y things. But actually almost all my time, like 80% of it is spent on engineering.
16:43Elon MuskDesign, engineering and design. So it's developing next generation product. That's 80% of it.
16:54Sam AltmanYou probably don't remember this a very long time ago. Many, many years, you took me on a tour of SpaceX and the most impressive thing was that you knew every detail of the rocket and every piece of engineering that went into it.
17:03Sam AltmanAnd I don't think many people get that about you.
17:05Elon MuskYeah, I think a lot of people think I'm kind of a business person or something, which is fine, business is fine. But like I. But really it's, you know, it's like it's SpaceX.
17:16Elon MuskGwynne Shotwell is chief operating officer. She kind of manages legal, finance, sales and kind of general business activity. And then my Time is almost entirely with the engineering team working on improving the Falcon nine and the Dragon spacecraft and developing the Mars colonial architecture.
17:38Elon MuskAnd then at Tesla, it's working on the Model 3 and some in the design studio, typically half a day a week dealing with aesthetics and look and feel things.
17:55Elon MuskAnd then most of the week is just going through engineering of the car itself as well as engineering of the factory. Because the biggest epiphany I've had this year is that what really matters is the machine that builds the machine, the factory, and that is at least two orders of magnitude hotter than the vehicle itself.
18:18Sam AltmanIt's amazing to watch the robots go here and these cars just happen.
18:23Elon MuskYeah. Now, this actually has a relatively low level of automation compared to what the Gigafactory will have and what Model 3 will have.
18:33Sam AltmanWhat's the speed on the line of these cars?
18:36Elon MuskActually, the average speed of the line is incredibly slow. It's probably about including both X and S, it's maybe five, you know, five centimeters per second.
18:52Sam AltmanAnd what can you get?
18:53Elon MuskThis is very slow.
18:54Sam AltmanOr what would you like to get to?
18:57Elon MuskI'm confident we can get to at least 1 meter per second. So 20 fold increase, that would be very fast. Yeah. At least, I mean, I think quite a 1 meter per second, just to put that in perspective, is a slow walk or like a medium speed walk.
19:11Elon MuskA fast walk would be one and a half meters per second. And then the fastest humans can run over 10 meters per second. So if we're only doing 0.05 meters per second, that's very slow current speed.
19:28Elon MuskAnd at 1 meter per second, you can still walk faster than the production line.