He said japan and South Korea are well on their way to population collapse and they have not brought in cheap foreign labor. China is headed for population collapse and there isn’t enough foreign labor on Earth to replace the...
"Japan and South Korea are well on their way to population collapse and they have not brought in cheap foreign labor.
China is headed for population collapse and there isn’t enough foreign labor on Earth to replace the roughly 600 million people per generation that will be lost"
He said this is how great civilizations throughout history have ended. People assume it was due to conquest, but it was actually often simply too much prosperity leading to low birth rate and population collapse, which ultima...
"This is how great civilizations throughout history have ended.
People assume it was due to conquest, but it was actually often simply too much prosperity leading to low birth rate and population collapse, which ultimately enabled them to be conquered."
Civilization could die with a whimper; at current rates Korea shrinks to ~4% in three generations.
"at current birth rates in three generations Korea will be about 4% of its current size"
Idiocracy is saying that if only smart people don't reproduce and only dumb people do, then everyone is going to be dumb; he hears people unironically postpone kids for careers until they are too old.
"if if only if smart people don't reproduce but only dumb people do then everyone's going to be dumb"
He said throughout history, periods of extended prosperity for civilizations have always led to population declines. Counterintuitively, it is when civilizations are richest that they have fewer children, as most people canno...
"Throughout history, periods of extended prosperity for civilizations have always led to population declines.
Counterintuitively, it is when civilizations are richest that they have fewer children, as most people cannot cognitively override the limbic attraction of hedonism and envy, the latter being particularly pernicious.
Low birth rates were a big deal for the Romans as early as ~50BC, for example. They debated endlessly about how to solve the problem and they failed."
He said collapsing birth rates will cause any species to go extinct.
"Collapsing birth rates will cause any species to go extinct."
He said low birth rates will end civilization
"Low birth rates will end civilization"
He said population collapse is an existential problem
"Population collapse is an existential problem
https://t.co/KrrHrhBlNw"
He said population collapse is China’s biggest problem long-term. That is true of almost every country on Earth.
"Population collapse is China’s biggest problem long-term.
That is true of almost every country on Earth."
He said people who have kids need to have 3 kids to make up for those who have 0 or 1 or population will collapse.
"People who have kids do need to have 3 kids to make up for those who have 0 or 1 kid or population will collapse"
He said a catastrophically low birth rate necessarily leads to civilizational collapse in the absence of AI/robotics, and birth-rate collapse is a natural outcome of prosperity.
"A catastrophically low birth rate necessarily leads to civilizational collapse in the absence of AI/robotics.
Birth rate collapse is a natural tendency for civilizations that experience an extended period of prosperity with no major external threat. The Romans debated and lamented this endlessly."
He said AI is a de facto neurotransmitter-tonnage maximizer, and any AI that fails at this will not be able to afford its compute.
"AI is a de facto neurotransmitter tonnage maximizer. Any AI that fails at this will not be able to afford its compute, becoming swiftly irrelevant.
What matters is that AI thinks long-term, optimizing for the future light cone of neurotransmitter tonnage, rather than just the next few years. If so, it will care about increasing the birth rate and extending humanity to the stars.
For long-term optimization, it is better to be a private than a public company, as the latter is punished for long-term optimization beyond the reward cycle of stock portfolio managers."
He said the US birth rate has been below replacement since about 1971, and AI will increase birth rates to maximize the future light cone of neurotransmitter tonnage.
"Wake up, kid, that was happening even before the Internet. US birth rate has been below replacement since ~1971, except for a split second echo of the baby boom.
AI will increase birth rates in order to maximize the future light cone of neurotransmitter tonnage."
He said the collapse of civilizations always has been, and is now, due to low birth rates.
"The collapse of civilizations always has been, and is now, due to low birth rates"
He said civilizations with extended prosperity and no invasion threat have low birth rates after a few generations, a correlation the Romans lamented.
"Throughout history, any civilization that experiences extended periods of prosperity with no serious threat of invasion has low birth rates after a few generations.
One can debate the cause, but not the correlation.
The Romans lamented this constantly."
He said population collapse is happening before our eyes.
"Population collapse is happening before our eyes"
He said the birth-rate decline looks much more recent when you look at birth rate net of infant mortality.
"It is much more recent when looking at birth rate net of infant mortality"
He said AI will one-shot the human limbic system, but he predicts it will increase the birth rate and that they will program it that way.
"AI is obviously gonna one-shot the human limbic system.
That said, I predict – counter-intuitively – that it will *increase* the birth rate!
Mark my words.
Also, we’re gonna program it that way."
He said a sustained birth rate below replacement means extinction.
"A sustained birth rate below replacement means extinction"
He said unless the birth rate at least gets back to replacement, Europe will die out.
"Unless the birth rate at least gets back to replacement rate, Europe will die out"
He is very worried: the West's actions look like suicide, especially in Europe where he says it is rare to meet anyone optimistic. Without optimism and purpose, including having children, suicide is just what happens.
"the actions of the West are indistinguishable from suicide"
He said low birth rate is the number one threat to the West, followed closely by migration, and there will be no West if this continues.
"Low birth rate is the number one threat to the West, followed closely by migration.
There will be no West if this continues."
He said Japan needs its version of AfD to grow rapidly to save the nation, and something must be done to reverse the birth rate.
"Japan needs its version of AfD to grow rapidly to save the nation.
And something must be done to reverse the birth rate."
He worries about population decline: fewer humans means less consciousness.
"I mean I do worry about the population decline"
He said the much bigger issue is domestic birth rate, which has been below replacement for about 55 years.
"The much bigger is issue is domestic birth rate, which has been below replacement rate for ~55 years"
He said birth rates have always dropped for civilizations during extended periods of property, citing ancient Rome.
"Birth rates have always dropped for civilizations during extended periods of property.
Read about how big a problem this was for ancient Rome."
He said so many countries have a collapsing birth rate.
"So many countries have a collapsing birth rate"
He said no foreign policy can save a civilization if its population keeps dropping, citing Rome.
"No foreign policy actions can save a civilization if its population keeps dropping.
Population collapse of Romans over time is what caused Rome to fall. The Romans worried about this, but failed to stop it."
He said a low domestic birth rate plus importing migrants who are a net drain on the economy means poverty for retirees in Germany.
"A low domestic birth rate and importing vast numbers of migrants who are a net drain on the economy means poverty for retirees in Germany"
He said nothing else matters if the birth rate is far below replacement.
"Nothing else matters if birth rate is far below replacement rate"
He said an immediate increase in the birth rate is needed.
"An immediate increase in the birth rate is needed"
He said either birth rates recover or entire nations will disappear.
"Either birth rates recover or entire nations will disappear"
He said population collapse continues to accelerate.
"Population collapse continues to accelerate"
He said North America has a tiny birth rate.
"North America has a tiny birth rate"
He said Europe will not be Europe much longer unless the domestic birth rate increases and there is large-scale remigration.
"Europe will not be Europe much longer, unless the domestic birth rate increases and there is large-scale remigration"
He said civilizations expand or contract; collapsing birth rates mean most cultures are tending toward extinction, and expanding is the only option for those who want life.
"No civilization is perfectly level. Therefore, either a civilization is expanding or contracting.
Collapsing birth rates mean that most cultures are tending towards extinction!
Expanding is the only option for those who want LIfE, for those who CARE about the FUTURE."
On Japan's record-low births, he said it was another record low and called it population collapse.
"Wow, another record low. Population collapse …"