Has Tesla come close to failing?

Q4761 answers2003-2026
Short answer

Tesla nearly died more than once: the 2008 financing closed at 6 p.m. on Christmas Eve, hours from bouncing payroll, and in 2018 they had to hit 5,000 Model 3s a week or go bankrupt.

From his 2026-10 answer in Elon Musk: What Comes Next for Humanity (Tesla Owners Silicon Valley). Summary is ours; see the quotes below.

All 61 answers, oldest to newest

2003 · 1 answer
🎙 Interview · 2003-10 · Stanford Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders Lecture · asked by Stanford audience · watch at 1:02 · transcript ·
He said he deferred Stanford for a couple of quarters, thinking it probably would not work out.
"So I got a deferment at Stanford and thought I'd give it a couple quarters, and if it didn't work out, which I thought it probably wouldn't, then I'd come back."
2012 · 2 answers
🎙 Interview · 2012-03 · 60 Minutes (2012) · asked by Scott Pelley · watch at 3:57 · transcript ·
Coming into rockets knowing nothing, the odds were not in his favor; when something is important enough you do it even though the odds are not in your favor.
"when something is important enough you do it even though flowers are not in your favor"
🎙 Interview · 2012-09 · Foundation with Kevin Rose · asked by Kevin Rose · watch at 11:02 · transcript ·
At the beginning of SpaceX he thought the most likely outcome was failure. For Tesla he first hoped GM's EV1 meant incumbents would do it, until they crushed the cars.
"I thought that the most likely outcome was failure"
2013 · 5 answers
🎙 Interview · 2013-02 · ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit · asked by Steven Chu / ARPA-E moderator · watch at 25:49 · transcript ·
For many years it was very painful and they almost lost everything in 2008. All three companies almost died that year.
"all three companies almost died in 2008"
🎙 Interview · 2013-04 · Interview with Bloomberg · asked by Bloomberg · watch at 1:36 · transcript ·
He said he was standing behind the Model S value guarantee with all of his assets.
"I'm standing behind that guarantee with all of my assets"
🎙 Interview · 2013-09 · Montana Economic Development Summit · asked by Audience · watch at 10:04 · transcript ·
He said if the fourth Falcon 1 launch had not worked, SpaceX would not be around.
"But if that fourth launch had not worked, then SpaceX wouldn't be around."
🎙 Interview · 2013-10 · Elon Musk at the Stanford GSB ENCORE Award · asked by Steve Jurvetson · watch at 47:44 · transcript ·
The Tesla financing round closed at 6 pm on December 24, 2008, the last hour of the last day; without it the company would have gone bankrupt a few days after Christmas.
"6 pm, December 24, 2008"
🎙 Interview · 2013-11 · Elon Musk at the Los Angeles World Affairs Council · asked by Los Angeles World Affairs Council interviewer · watch at 3:58 · transcript ·
Without the Daimler investment he said Tesla would definitely have been dead, bankrupt, finished.
"we would definitely be dead"
2014 · 4 answers
🎙 Interview · 2014-03 · 60 Minutes (2014) · asked by Scott Pelley · watch at 2:28 · transcript ·
He thought Tesla would most likely fail, but if something is important enough you should try even if the probable outcome is failure.
"if something is important enough used to try even if you probably outcome is failure"
🎙 Interview · 2014-04 · Interview with AUTO BILD · asked by AUTO BILD interviewer · watch at 18:45 · transcript ·
He called 2008 a terrible time: three rocket failures in a row, Tesla financing falling apart, SolarCity difficulties and a divorce, everything going wrong at once.
"three rocket failures in a row"
🎙 Interview · 2014-05 · Elon Musk at the World Energy Innovation Forum · asked by World Energy Innovation Forum host · watch at 11:29 · transcript ·
In 2008 the choice was Tesla going bankrupt unless he put in remaining capital, including borrowing from friends.
"in 2008 it was basically the choice of either Tesla's going to go bankrupt"
🎙 Interview · 2014-06 · Bloomberg Risk Takers · asked by Bloomberg Risk Takers (narrated profile) · watch at 30:50 · transcript ·
They had maybe a week's worth of cash in the bank or less, and only two or three business days left in the year. He never thought a nervous breakdown was possible; that was about as close as he was going to come.
"We had maybe about a week's worth of cash in the bank or less"
2015 · 9 answers
🎙 Interview · 2015-01 · Automotive News World Congress · asked by Automotive News World Congress host · watch at 4:24 · transcript ·
From the beginning Tesla and SpaceX were in dire straits; nobody took them seriously. At the start he thought Tesla maybe had a 10% chance of success, and he was close to a nervous breakdown before Christmas 2008.
"for the beginning we were in in really Dire Straits"
🎙 Interview · 2015-07 · 60 Minutes Australia (2015) · asked by 60 Minutes Australia correspondent · watch at 3:39 · transcript ·
He never thought Tesla would succeed from the beginning — maybe 10–20% odds; at the end of 2008 it looked like failure and he put in his last money, closing financing on Christmas Eve 2008 at 6 p.m.
"I actually thought we would fail"
🎙 Interview · 2015-07 · ISS R&D Conference · asked by Mike Suffredini (moderator) / audience · watch at 16:56 · transcript ·
When he started SpaceX he thought the odds of success were very low and they would most likely fail, but they should give it a try anyway.
"When I started SpaceX, I thought the odds of success were very low"
🎙 Interview · 2015-07 · ISS R&D Conference · asked by Mike Suffredini (moderator) / audience · watch at 18:54 · transcript ·
The Mars-greenhouse idea would have been a 100% chance of losing the money. SpaceX, which he thought maybe had a 10% chance of success, was an improvement.
"SpaceX, which I thought maybe had a 10% chance of success"
🎙 Interview · 2015-10 · Elon Musk | Vanity Fair New Establishment Summit 2015 · asked by Vanity Fair interviewer · watch at 46:27 · transcript ·
The Tesla round closed 6 p.m. Christmas Eve 2008, last hour of the last possible day; they would have gone bankrupt about two days after Christmas otherwise.
"we would have gone bankrupt like 2 days after Christmas"
🎙 Interview · 2015-10 · Elon Musk at Stanford eCorner · asked by Steve Jurvetson · watch at 21:55 · transcript ·
He thought success was maybe 10% likely; both companies nearly failed in 2008 after three SpaceX launch failures and a Tesla financing round that closed Christmas Eve.
"we came very close to both companies not succeeding in 2008"
🎙 Interview · 2015-11 · Elon Musk at the 2015 Baron Investment Conference · asked by Ron Baron · watch at 14:16 · transcript ·
The real key was 2008, or mid-2007 to mid-2009: a super-bad two years, almost every early Tesla decision wrong, company almost completely recapitalized in 2007.
"that two-year period was super bad"
🎙 Interview · 2015-12 · Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne · asked by Nadia Jacobi (Sorbonne) / students · watch at 33:10 · transcript ·
When they first started Tesla and SolarCity they thought they would fail. Tesla in particular he thought maybe a 10% chance of success. Cars are one of the worst risk-adjusted returns.
"maybe 10% chance of success"
🎙 Interview · 2015-12 · Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne · asked by Nadia Jacobi (Sorbonne) / students · watch at 37:59 · transcript ·
Probability of success was so low he provided all the money from PayPal into Tesla, SolarCity and SpaceX. For Tesla they closed the financing round on Christmas Eve 2008, the last hour of the last day possible. Even as recently as early 2013 they were operating with maybe one to two weeks of money.
"we actually closed the financing round on Christmas Eve uh 2008"
2016 · 2 answers
🎙 Interview · 2016-01 · BBC Interview · asked by Rory Cellan-Jones · watch at 15:45 · transcript ·
He is minimizing existential threats; at the start he thought Tesla and SpaceX maybe had a 10% chance and is surprised they are alive.
"SpaceX and Tesla maybe had a 10% chance of success"
🎙 Interview · 2016-04 · CRS-8 Post-Launch Press Conference · asked by reporters / NASA (CRS-8 post-launch) · watch at 32:31 · transcript ·
Getting to orbit the first time was the best one. Through 2008 three launches failed and he only had money for three; they scrambled parts for one final launch and it worked. Falcon 1 flight 4 was the most profound.
"put together the parts for one one final launch and and it worked"
2018 · 7 answers
🎙 Interview · 2018-03 · Elon Musk | SXSW 2018 · asked by Jonah Nolan · watch at 22:17 · transcript ·
2008 was brutal: third consecutive Falcon failure, Tesla almost went bankrupt, financing closed 6 p.m. Christmas Eve, last hour of the last day.
"Tesla Almost went bankrupt"
𝕏 post · 2018-04-13 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @TheEconomist · open post ·
In April 2018 he said Tesla would be profitable and cash-flow positive in Q3 and Q4, so it would not need to raise money.
"Tesla will be profitable & cash flow+ in Q3 & Q4, so obv no need to raise money."
🎙 Interview · 2018-05-02 · Tesla Q1 2018 earnings call (2018) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 1:01:35 · transcript ·
He accepts the criticism that Tesla was not yet profitable, saying you are not a real company until you are.
"An accurate one is high time we became profitable. And you know, and the truth is like you're not a real company until. Until you are, frankly."
🎙 Interview · 2018-05-02 · Tesla Q1 2018 earnings call (2018) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 11:32 · transcript ·
He says the use of third-party contractors had got out of control and promised a big clean-up.
"We've got barnacles on barnacles, so there's going to be a lot of barnacle removal."
🎙 Interview · 2018-05-02 · Tesla Q1 2018 earnings call (2018) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 8:59 · transcript ·
He credits hard work and sacrifice by talented people for the production outcome.
"It's been an amazing amount of hard work and sacrifice by some very talented people to achieve this outcome."
𝕏 post · 2018-05-22 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @DMC_Ryan · open post ·
Says complexity is the devil and the team is working incredibly hard on the ramp and profitability.
"Complexity is the devil. Words can’t express how hard we are working on the Model 3 production ramp & trying to get to profitability."
𝕏 post · 2018-08-19 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @ariannahuff · open post ·
Says Ford and Tesla are the only two American car companies to avoid bankruptcy, and working less is not an option.
"Ford & Tesla are the only 2 American car companies to avoid bankruptcy. I just got home from the factory. You think this is an option. It is not."
2019 · 4 answers
🎙 Interview · 2019-03 · NASA Administrator Bridenstine Chats with Elon Musk · asked by NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine · watch at 4:15 · transcript ·
When he started SpaceX he only thought there was maybe a ten percent chance of getting Falcon 1 to orbit. He did not think this would happen. He had been chief engineer since day one and did not really know anything about rockets, which is why the first three failed. He only had money for three flights.
"when i started spacex i i only thought there was maybe a ten percent chance"
🎙 Interview · 2019-03 · Crew Dragon Demo-1 Post-Launch Press Conference · asked by reporters / NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine · watch at 14:58 · transcript ·
He said he always thought they would fail, so it was all upside. Starting out he thought maybe they had a 10% chance of reaching orbit.
"i always thought we would fail"
🎙 Interview · 2019-03 · Crew Dragon Demo-1 Post-Launch Press Conference · asked by reporters / NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine · watch at 15:32 · transcript ·
The first three Falcon 1 launches did not work. They scraped together parts for the fourth, and if that one hadn't worked, that would have been it for SpaceX.
"if that one hadn't worked would have been that would have been it for us"
🎙 Interview · 2019-06 · E3 Coliseum · asked by Todd Howard / E3 Coliseum moderator · watch at 41:31 · transcript ·
He said they blew up three rockets in the beginning. He put the PayPal money into SpaceX, Tesla and SolarCity, then had to give them all the money and borrow for rent in 2008. They scraped spare parts together for a fourth launch; if it had not worked, SpaceX would have died, and probably Tesla with it.
"if it had not worked, Space X would've died"
2020 · 5 answers
🎙 Interview · 2020-04-29 · Tesla Q1 2020 earnings call (2020) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 8:30 · transcript ·
In April 2020 he said Tesla was doing the opposite of other companies and going pedal to the metal on new products and expansion.
"While many other companies are cutting back on investment, we are doing the opposite. We are absolutely pedal to the metal on new products and expanding the company"
🎙 Interview · 2020-04-29 · Tesla Q1 2020 earnings call (2020) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 17:55 · transcript ·
He says the crisis made Tesla look closely at its cost structure, as one always must in a crisis.
"it has caused us to look closely at our cost structure and, and to be more efficient as a company. One always has to do that in a crisis."
🎙 Interview · 2020-04-29 · Tesla Q1 2020 earnings call (2020) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 18:17 · transcript ·
He says in the 2020 crisis Tesla decided to keep expanding rapidly and investing in new technology, even though risky.
"the right move is actually to continue to expand rapidly, continue to invest in the future in new technologies, even though it is risky."
🎙 Interview · 2020-05 · Speech at the Crew Demo-2 Launch Party · asked by reporters / NASA (Crew Demo-2 launch party) · watch at 7:27 · transcript ·
When starting SpaceX he thought they maybe had a 10% chance of reaching orbit. He spent the PayPal money on SpaceX and Tesla; almost both companies went bankrupt. 2008 was a tough year. Four Falcon 1 attempts, then the NASA cargo contract saved SpaceX.
"almost both companies went bankrupt frankly 2008 was a tough year"
𝕏 post · 2020-10-07 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @raytech247 · open post ·
Notes Ford and Tesla are the only US carmakers that avoided bankruptcy.
"Ford and Tesla are the only US car companies that have avoided bankruptcy."
2022 · 1 answer
𝕏 post · 2022-03-30 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @JimPethokoukis · open post ·
Says SpaceX and Tesla both narrowly escaped bankruptcy in 2008.
"SpaceX & Tesla would probably have died, since both narrowly escaped bankruptcy in 2008."
2023 · 10 answers
🎙 Interview · 2023-01-25 · Tesla Q4 and full year 2022 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 1:06:30 · transcript ·
In January 2023 he said Tesla was well placed to get through a recession, with almost no debt and over $20 billion in cash.
"I feel we're in a very strong position to get through a recession because we really don't have any debt and we've got over $20 billion of cash"
🎙 Interview · 2023-01-25 · Tesla Q4 and full year 2022 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 42:04 · transcript ·
In January 2023 he predicted a pretty difficult recession that year.
"I think we'll probably have a pretty difficult recession this year."
🎙 Interview · 2023-02 · World Government Summit · asked by World Government Summit interviewer · watch at 30:33 · transcript ·
Tesla went through very difficult times on the ragged edge of survival. If he had not given it everything, the company could easily have gone bankrupt; it was on the verge for quite a while, especially 2017–2019.
"the company could have easily gone bankrupt"
𝕏 post · 2023-02-24 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @RalphNader · open post ·
He said ralph Nader, you are lying – shame on you! I personally provided almost all Tesla funding, based on my proceeds from PayPal, from Series A in 2004 until Series C in 2007. In late 2008, I gave Tesla the last money I ha...
"Ralph Nader, you are lying – shame on you! I personally provided almost all Tesla funding, based on my proceeds from PayPal, from Series A in 2004 until Series C in 2007. In late 2008, I gave Tesla the last money I had. It was that or the company would have died. We closed that funding round at 6pm on Christmas Eve. If we had not closed that round, Tesla would have gone bankrupt 2 days after Christmas. I gave my last money thinking Tesla would probably still die, not thinking that it would be lucrative. The first meaningful government funding Tesla received was in Q2 2010 from a loan under the vehicle efficiency lending program. Tesla paid back that loan early with interest. Taxpayers actually made a profit. @CommunityNotes"
🎙 Interview · 2023-04-19 · Tesla Q1 2023 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 1:04:35 · transcript ·
He says Tesla is growing faster than any company in history that makes a large complex manufactured object.
"Tesla is growing, I believe faster than any company in history that has, that has, that makes a large complex manufactured object."
🎙 Interview · 2023-04-19 · Tesla Q1 2023 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 1:06:43 · transcript ·
He says a newcomer can only succeed with a product so compelling that people pay a premium over incumbents.
"the only way to actually succeed for newcomer to succeed is to have a product that is so compelling that people are willing to pay a premium over the incumbent product."
🎙 Interview · 2023-10 · Joe Rogan Experience #2054 - Elon Musk · asked by Joe Rogan · watch at 23:17 · transcript ·
Among American car companies only Ford and Tesla have not gone bankrupt; it was incredibly difficult to keep Tesla alive when GM and Chrysler were going bankrupt.
"it was incredibly difficult to keep Tesla alive"
🎙 Interview · 2023-10-18 · Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 10:46 · transcript ·
He says going from prototype to volume production is vastly harder than making the prototype, and positive cash flow harder still.
"the difficulty of going from a prototype to volume production is like 10,000% harder to get to volume production than to make the prototype in the first place."
🎙 Interview · 2023-10-18 · Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 1:02:00 · transcript ·
He recalls closing Tesla's 2008 financing round on Christmas Eve, two days before payroll would have bounced.
"if we had not closed that financing round, we would have bounced payroll two days after Christmas."
🎙 Interview · 2023-10-18 · Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 11:00 · transcript ·
He says no new car startup has been successful for 100 years apart from Tesla.
"That is why there have not been new car startups that have been successful for 100 years, apart from Tesla."
2024 · 4 answers
𝕏 post · 2024-01-09 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @SawyerMerritt · open post ·
He said yeah, I was running on very little sleep for several days due to extreme work requirements. Worth noting that Tesla was very close to bankruptcy in 2017.
"Yeah, I was running on very little sleep for several days due to extreme work requirements. Worth noting that Tesla was very close to bankruptcy in 2017."
𝕏 post · 2024-02-20 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @patrickc · open post ·
He said i thought SpaceX and Tesla both had >90% chance of failure, but worth trying anyway
"I thought SpaceX and Tesla both had >90% chance of failure, but worth trying anyway"
🎙 Interview · 2024-10-23 · Tesla Q3 2024 earnings call (2024) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 8:19 · transcript ·
He says, to the best of his knowledge, no EV company worldwide is even profitable.
"to the best of my knowledge, no EV company is even profitable."
𝕏 post · 2024-12-12 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @cb_doge · open post ·
He said there were so articles about how Tesla was definitely going bankrupt!
"There were so articles about how Tesla was definitely going bankrupt!"
2025 · 4 answers
🎙 Interview · 2025-03 · ELON UNCUT - THE COMPLETE INTERVIEW | Verdict Ep. 216 · asked by Ted Cruz / Ben Ferguson · watch at 16:47 · transcript ·
COVID actions almost killed Tesla because every other auto plant in the country was allowed to open, but Tesla's California plant was not.
"the co actions U almost killed Tesla"
🎙 Interview · 2025-04-22 · Tesla Q1 2025 earnings call (2025) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 11:54 · transcript ·
He says Tesla has been on the ragged edge of death about a dozen times, but this is not one of them.
"We probably were on the ragged edge of death at least maybe a dozen times."
🎙 Interview · 2025-04-22 · Tesla Q1 2025 earnings call (2025) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 59:03 · transcript ·
He calls Tesla the most vertically integrated car company since Henry Ford.
"there's no more vertically integrated car company than Tesla."
𝕏 post · 2025-06-17 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @ianmiles · open post ·
He said the sheer audacity of the WSJ/NYT lies is astonishing! WSJ claimed that I was being fired from Tesla and failed to include that the board flatly denied it!
"The sheer audacity of the WSJ/NYT lies is astonishing! WSJ claimed that I was being fired from Tesla and failed to include that the board flatly denied it!"
2026 · 3 answers
🎙 Interview · 2026-06 · SpaceX IPO — Nasdaq Bell Speech · asked by Nasdaq · watch at 0:00 · transcript ·
He said he gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance of succeeding at all.
"Gave I gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance of succeeding at all"
𝕏 post · 2026-09-25 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @cb_doge · open post ·
He said Bill Gates told him experts said a long-range electric semi was impossible, but Gates did not know battery energy density or energy per mile; Gates also declined an offer of independent testing of a Tesla Semi.
"When I talked to Gates in person, he said “experts tell me a long range electric semi truck is impossible”. However, when I asked what his assumptions were about battery energy density and vehicle energy consumption per mile, which are the two numbers needed to determine range, he did not know either number! I also offered to let him take one of our semi trucks for independent testing, but he declined. Not sure what more I could have done. 🤷‍♂️"
🎙 Interview · 2026-10 · Elon Musk: What Comes Next for Humanity (Tesla Owners Silicon Valley) · asked by Tesla Owners Silicon Valley · watch at 16:14 · transcript ·
Tesla nearly died more than once: the 2008 financing closed at 6 p.m. on Christmas Eve, hours from bouncing payroll, and in 2018 they had to hit 5,000 Model 3s a week or go bankrupt.
"we closed the financing round at 6 p.m. on Christmas Eve 2008"

Last updated: 2026-10 (newest answer).

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