He said the most likely outcome is humanity lasts at least another 10,000 years.
"I actually think that the most likely outcome is that humanity will last for a long time"
What is the Kardashev scale / the big picture for civilization?
Q5125 answers2011-2026
Short answer
He treats energy harnessed as the most objective score of a civilization: type I a planet, type II a star, type III a galaxy. Earth is still very low on the Kardashev I scale and harnesses almost none of the Sun.
All 25 answers, oldest to newest
2011 · 1 answer
2023 · 1 answer
He says a multiplanetary civilization could last tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands or even millions of years.
"But the civilization can last for tens of thousands of years, perhaps hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of years."
2024 · 10 answers
He said solar power is growing super fast. In the very long-term (Kardashev Scale), solar will be >99% of all power generation.
"Solar power is growing super fast. In the very long-term (Kardashev Scale), solar will be >99% of all power generation."
He said keeping up with the Kardashevs 😂 The Sun is 99.9999+% of energy in our solar system. Everything else is cute.
"Keeping up with the Kardashevs 😂 The Sun is 99.9999+% of energy in our solar system. Everything else is cute."
He said fission is good, but nothing comes close to that staggeringly gigantic fusion reactor in the sky. When you think in Kardashev terms, it becomes utterly obvious that the energy released by our Sun is all that matters.
"Fission is good, but nothing comes close to that staggeringly gigantic fusion reactor in the sky. When you think in Kardashev terms, it becomes utterly obvious that the energy released by our Sun is all that matters."
He said one could consider any given civilization’s progress as % completion of Kardashev. By that measure, we are <1% towards even type 1.
"One could consider any given civilization’s progress as % completion of Kardashev. By that measure, we are <1% towards even type 1."
He said starship is a big step forward on the Kardashev scale, as it leads to harnessing vastly more power from the sun
"Starship is a big step forward on the Kardashev scale, as it leads to harnessing vastly more power from the sun"
He says Kardashev thinking makes it obvious that the sun is by far the biggest source of energy.
"it becomes obvious that the by far the biggest source of energy is the sun."
He said the Sun is ~99.8% of the entire mass of the solar system. Jupiter and Saturn are ~0.2% and everything else is a rounding error. Moreover, the Sun is >99.99% of energy output! Everything else combined is an inaudible b...
"The Sun is ~99.8% of the entire mass of the solar system. Jupiter and Saturn are ~0.2% and everything else is a rounding error. Moreover, the Sun is >99.99% of energy output! Everything else combined is an inaudible background noise."
He said that describes human technological development to date. In the grand scheme of things, it probably does come down to what percentage of a solar system’s energy has been harnessed for intelligence. We currently round d...
"That describes human technological development to date. In the grand scheme of things, it probably does come down to what percentage of a solar system’s energy has been harnessed for intelligence. We currently round down to 0%."
He said becoming multiplanetary is a critical step on the Kardashev ladder
"Becoming multiplanetary is a critical step on the Kardashev ladder"
He said that will probably happen. Any self-respecting civilization should at least reach Kardashev Type II. In my opinion, we are currently only at <5% of Type I. To get to ~30%, we would need to place solar panels in all de...
"That will probably happen. Any self-respecting civilization should at least reach Kardashev Type II. In my opinion, we are currently only at <5% of Type I. To get to ~30%, we would need to place solar panels in all desert or highly arid regions."
2025 · 11 answers
He said we’re quite a bit further from being fully Type I than it may seem. Digital superintelligence will come many years before we reach even 10% of Type I.
"We’re quite a bit further from being fully Type I than it may seem. Digital superintelligence will come many years before we reach even 10% of Type I."
Asked Type 1 Civilization is the Space Race of our time. Is a one terawatt compute cluster ou..., he said making life sustainably multiplanetary and getting to a high percentage of K1-level compute are separate goals, but obviously advanced AI will help achieve the first goal
"Making life sustainably multiplanetary and getting to a high percentage of K1-level compute are separate goals, but obviously advanced AI will help achieve the first goal"
He said kardashev 1 or you’re not even trying
"Kardashev 1 or you’re not even trying"
He said the ratio of collective machine to collective human intelligence will become a very large number. Easily more than a billion at Kardashev II scale. Humbling to consider.
"The ratio of collective machine to collective human intelligence will become a very large number. Easily more than a billion at Kardashev II scale. Humbling to consider."
He said the Sun is about 100% of all energy in our solar system.
"The Sun is ~100% of all energy in our solar system"
He said solar-powered AI satellites are the path to a Kardashev Type II civilization that harnesses most of the Sun, more than a billion times Earth's other energy.
"This is the path to a Kardashev Type II civilization that harnesses most of the power of our Sun, which is more than a billion times more energy than everything else on Earth combined"
He said Kardashev II or you are not really trying.
"Kardashev II or you’re not really trying"
He said solar-powered AI satellites are ultimately the only way to achieve a Kardashev-II civilization.
"Radiative cooling rising as T^4 really favors higher operating temperatures. Ultimately, solar-powered AI satellites are the only way to achieve a Kardashev-II civilization."
He said think in terms of Kardashev II and the path becomes obvious.
"Think in terms of Kardashev II and the path becomes obvious"
He said Kardashev III or bust.
"Kardashev III or bust"
On getting lunar material for orbital megastructures, he said it is the only way to build a civilization at Kardashev II scale.
"It is the only way to build a civilization at the Kardashev II scale"
2026 · 2 answers
He treats energy harnessed as the most objective score of a civilization: type I a planet, type II a star, type III a galaxy. Earth is still very low on the Kardashev I scale and harnesses almost none of the Sun.
"right now we're very low on the Kardashev one scale"
On a Kardashev doubling calculation, he said production on the Moon and Mars will accelerate by far more than double every year until natural limits.
"Production on the Moon & Mars will accelerate by far more than double every year, until natural limits are encountered"