Without millions of tons to Earth orbit you cannot get the millions of tons needed to the Moon and Mars to make a sustainably multiplanet species.
"The mass & difficulty required to build a space habitat like that is extreme. Far better to have a base on the moon & city on Mars."
"High time we went back and had a permanently occupied lunar base"
"His plan makes no sense. Just a worse version of Apollo. Starship will enable a permanently occupied moon base and even a city on the moon one day."
"ultimately I think we we want to build a moon base Moonbase Alpha um and have a permanently uh occupied uh base on the moon"
"Starship will enable a permanently occupied moon base"
"I think we can do it. Progress is accelerating. Starship offers a path to far greater payload to the Moon than is currently anticipated in the Artemis program. A permanently crewed Moon base is possible."
"But the Moon Station that Starship will enable will be great"
"Starship can enable a permanently crewed science station on the Moon, which would be super cool! Moonbase Alpha!!"
"No, we’re going straight to Mars. The Moon is a distraction. Mass to orbit is the key metric, thereafter mass to Mars surface. The former needs to be in the megaton to orbit per year range to build a self-sustaining colony on Mars."
"Starship will build Moonbase Alpha"
"Starship could deliver 100GW/year to high Earth orbit within 4 to 5 years if we can solve the other parts of the equation. 100TW/year is possible from a lunar base producing solar-powered AI satellites locally and accelerating them to escape velocity with a mass driver."
"That said, a self-sustaining city on the Moon, while not as resilient to calamities that affect Earth as Mars (due to its proximity to Earth), is probably nonetheless worth the doing, in addition to Mars."
"Giant lunar base with AI satellite factories and a mass driver to shoot them into deep space (of course)"
"For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years. The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars. It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city. That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster."
"We’re still going to Mars and the timeframe for building a self-growing city there is still about the same at 20 to 30 years. It’s possible that revenue from lunar activities might actually accelerate Mars."
"The priority shift is because I’m worried that a natural or manmade catastrophe stops the resupply ships coming from Earth, causing the colony to die out. We can make the Moon city self-growing in less than 10 years, but Mars will take 20+ years due to the 26 month iteration cycle. That is what matters most. There is also an AI bonus element, but the prime directive must be ensuring the long-term survival of consciousness."
"The Moon would establish a foothold beyond Earth quickly, to protect life against risk of a natural or manmade disaster on Earth. We would continue to launch directly from Earth to Mars while possible, rather than Moon to Mars, as fuel is relatively scarce on the Moon."
"Mars will start in 5 or 6 years, so will be done in parallel with the Moon, but the Moon will be the initial focus"
"As I said in my post, we will still do Mars in parallel, but the critical path to a self-growing Moon city is faster. The Moon city can be made to be self-growing in less than half the time of Mars. The critical juncture for humanity’s expansion beyond Earth is having a self-growing civilization off world before the resupply ships stop coming."
"They might land something on the Moon before SpaceX and that’s fine by me. I will be one of the first to congratulate them. However, what really matters for the future is being able to land millions of tons of equipment and people to build a self-growing city on the Moon. In this respect, perhaps we are be more the tortoise than the hare for now."
"Hard to make fuel on the Moon, due to the difficulty of obtaining hydrogen & carbon to make CH4. Much easier on Earth, where CH4 is plentiful. But maybe that changes once we get there and the city is humming. https://t.co/KJzCcHpWLH"
"To be clear, we are still going to do Mars. I don’t think this change affects the time to a Mars city being self-growing by more than 5 years and it might turn out to accelerate Mars."
"To be clear, we are still going to do Mars. I don’t think this change affects the time to a Mars city being self-growing by more than 5 years and it might turn out to accelerate Mars."
"SpaceX will ultimately deliver millions of tons to the Moon to build a self-growing city there and same for Mars"
"If you can't deliver millions of tons to Earth orbit, you can't get the millions of tons that you need to the Moon and Mars to make us a sustainably multi planet species."