Says millions of people are needed for a Mars colony, 80k+ moving per year.
"Millions of people needed for Mars colony, so 80k+ would just be the number moving to Mars per year"
When will a city on Mars be self-sustaining?
Q10737 answers2012-2026
Short answer
Rough order of magnitude: about a million tons to the Martian surface so Mars can grow even if resupply from Earth stops; it might be 10 million tons.
All 37 answers, oldest to newest
2012 · 1 answer
2014 · 2 answers
The long-term ambition of SpaceX is the technologies for a self-sustaining city on Mars. Wings and a runway do not work on the Moon or Mars, so they have to get good at propulsive landing.
"establish A self sustaining city on Mars"
The goal should be a self-sustaining civilization on Mars, not simply a mission. A flags-and-footprints trip would be awesome pictures and a new altitude record, but it is not the thing that fundamentally changes the future of humanity.
"creation of a self sustaining civilization on Mars, not simply a mission to Mars"
2016 · 1 answer
From the first ship to Mars, 20 to 50 Mars rendezvous, probably 40 to 100 years to a fully self-sustaining civilization.
"From the point at which the first ship goes to Mars, it's probably somewhere between 20 to 50 total Mars rendezvous. So it's probably somewhere between maybe 40 to 100 years to achieve a fully self-sustaining civilization on Mars."
2017 · 1 answer
For SpaceX the focus is getting people and cargo there at a cost they can afford. There is a threshold cost per ticket or per ton to the surface of Mars below which a self-sustaining city can develop and above which it cannot.
"below which uh a self-sustaining city can develop and above which it cannot"
2018 · 1 answer
About half his money was intended to help problems on Earth and half to help establish a self-sustaining city on Mars.
"About half my money is intended to help problems on Earth & half to help establish a self-sustaining city on Mars to ensure continuation of life (of all species) in case Earth gets hit by a meteor like the dinosaurs or WW3 happens & we destroy ourselves"
2019 · 5 answers
Replying to a question that assumed 2022 cargo and 2024 cargo-and-crew tests: about 10 orbit-synch windows every 26 months, so self-sufficiency around 2050.
"About 10 orbit synch windows, which are every 26 months, so self-sufficiency around 2050"
He said this is a good step, getting people back in orbit. What he really wants to see is a permanently occupied human base on the Moon and us building a city on Mars. He can see the beginning of that; before he dies he will die happy.
"permanently uh occupied human base on the moon and us building a city on mars"
Possible to make a self-sustaining city on Mars by 2050 if they start in 5 years (from Mar 2019 ≈ 2024) and take 10 orbital synchronizations.
"It’s possible to make a self-sustaining city on Mars by 2050, if we start in 5 years & take 10 orbital synchronizations"
Roughly a million tons on Mars; if any ingredient is missing and ships from Earth stop, the city dies out.
"i think maybe roughly you need about a million tons on mars to have a self-sustaining city"
The economics of Starship’s payload-to-orbit rate have to be in that league to build a self-sustaining city on Mars.
"The economics have to be something like that to build a self-sustaining city on Mars"
2020 · 3 answers
Back-of-the-envelope, you need on the order of a million tons of useful payload to the surface of Mars — hopefully not 10 million, probably not 100,000. That means something like a megaton per year to Earth orbit or it is not relevant.
"you need on the order of a million tons to the surface of Mars useful payload"
About a dozen Earth–Mars transfer windows, so ~25 years, for the self-sustaining-city cadence.
"About a dozen transfer windows, so ~25 years"
Building ~1000 Starships to create a self-sustaining city on Mars is the mission; production is hard, prototypes are easy.
"Production is hard, prototypes are easy. Building ~1000 Starships to create a self-sustaining city on Mars is our mission."
2021 · 9 answers
He frames the key question as whether the Mars city becomes self-sustaining before a calamity or decline on Earth stops the ships.
"in a more pithy way is like, does the city on Mars become self sustaining?"
He says the important thing is getting people and equipment there to establish at least one self-sustaining city.
"I think the important part is just that we get people there and we get the equipment necessary to establish a self sustaining civilization, at least one self sustaining city."
He says Mars would start as a tiny outpost and be very dangerous.
"Mars would start off being very tiny, just like a tiny little outpost. And by the way, it's going to be very dangerous."
He says Mars needs all the fundamentals of industry to become self-sustaining, which would take a while.
"We need all of the sort of fundamentals of industry in order to make sure that Mars is a self sustaining planet over time"
A single Starship is designed to do in a day what all rockets then did in a year; even so, ~1000 Starships would take ~20 years to build a self-sustaining city on Mars.
"If 2021 manifest is met, SpaceX will do ~75% of total Earth payload to orbit with Falcon. A single Starship is designed to do in a day what all rockets on Earth currently do in a year. Even so, ~1000 Starships will take ~20 years to build a self-sustaining city on Mars."
He said he would be long dead before Mars is self-sustaining, but hoped the momentum was strong by the time he died.
"I'll be long dead before, you know, Mars is self-sustaining but hopefully the momentum is strong in that direction by the time I die"
About 800 to 1000 Raptors a year over ten years to build the Mars fleet; the city itself probably takes roughly 20 years, hopefully built by ~2050.
"Roughly 800 to 1000 per year. That’s about what’s needed over ten years to create the fleet to build a self-sustaining city on Mars. City itself probably takes roughly 20 years, so hopefully it is built by ~2050."
To become multi-planetary they will need maybe a thousand ships. SpaceX's overarching goal is for humanity to become a multi-planet species and a space-faring civilization.
"maybe a thousand ships or something like that"
Guessed it is at least 20 years from the first visit to a self-sustaining Mars, possibly 40 or 50.
"it's at least 20 years from the first visit to make Mars sustaining is my guess. And it may be 40 or 50."
2022 · 3 answers
The critical threshold for Mars is a city that is self-sustaining; if any ingredient is missing and ships from Earth stop, the city dies out.
"The critical threshold I think for Mars is to have a city that is self sustaining."
Starship is necessary for creating a self-sustaining city on Mars, with orders of magnitude more mass to orbit than Falcon.
"Starship is in a different league. Orders of magnitude more mass to orbit than Falcon. Necessary for creating a self-sustaining city on Mars."
In August 2022 he hoped there would be a self-sustaining city on Mars in 20 years (~2042).
"I hope there is a self-sustaining city on Mars in 20 years!"
2023 · 1 answer
He says a self-sustaining city should ideally be on Mars, because Mars is far from Earth.
"extremely important that we become a multi planet civilization and create a self sustaining city, ideally on Mars, because that's quite far away from Earth."
2024 · 5 answers
Get Mars to a self-sustaining civilization as quickly as possible; he thought that could be done in around 20 years (from April 2024, ~2044).
"we want to just get get uh Mars to be a self-sustaining civilization as quickly as possible and I I think this can be done in around 20 years"
About a million people and several million tons of cargo, which he said they can do in 20 years; at 10 launches a day that is about a million tons in about 8 years given two-year windows.
"how many people do you need for a self-sustaining city is about a million um and several million tons of of cargo so uh yeah which we can do and we can do this in 20 years"
He said the aim is to make Mars a self-sustaining civilization as quickly as possible.
"we want to just get Mars to be a self sustaining civilization as quickly as possible"
He said he thinks a self-sustaining Mars civilization can be done in around 20 years.
"I think this can be done in around 20 years"
He said if civilization stays reasonably stable for ~30 years, a self-sustaining Mars city of a million+ people will be built.
"If civilization is reasonably stable for the next ~30 years, a self-sustaining city of a million+ people will be built on Mars"
2025 · 4 answers
The important thing is a self-sustaining city as quickly as possible: it must keep growing even after supply ships from Earth stop coming.
"the important thing is that we uh build a self-sustaining City on MOS as quickly as possible"
A few people on the surface will not make it self-sustaining; it needs on the order of a million people and maybe a million tons of cargo.
"you're going to need on the order of a million people uh maybe a million tons of cargo"
When Starship launches at high rate, SpaceX would probably carry more than 99% of Earth's payload mass to orbit, which he said is necessary to make Mars a self-sustaining civilization.
"When Starship is launching at high rate, SpaceX will probably carry >99% of Earth’s payload mass to orbit. This is necessary to make Mars a self-sustaining civilization."
Rough order of magnitude: about a million tons to the Martian surface so Mars can grow even if resupply from Earth stops; it might be 10 million tons.
"we need to get about a thou about about a million tons is my guess um to the surface of Mars to make um uh a civilization on Mars self-sustaining"
2026 · 1 answer
He said the timeframe for a self-growing Mars city is still about 20 to 30 years, and lunar revenue might accelerate Mars.
"We’re still going to Mars and the timeframe for building a self-growing city there is still about the same at 20 to 30 years."