Abundance Summit
Questions on ElonsFAQ asked in this interview (4)
Transcript
0:00Peter DiamandisAudience. And as you can see, I'm still trying to monetize hope.
0:05Elon MuskYeah, you look like you're in great shape.
0:07Peter DiamandisI'm doing great.
0:09Elon MuskIs there any sort of youth serum things going on or what?
0:13Peter DiamandisIt's our Longevity X prize. We're getting there, buddy. We're getting there. I think in our last conversation, you're getting on board with the idea of extended longevity. Yes.
0:27Elon MuskYeah, okay. Fully.
0:29Peter DiamandisI'll leave it at that.
0:30Elon MuskSome degree. I mean, like, I don't know if we wanted everyone to live forever or whatever, but I think health span and not, you know, having an extended period of senescence where you're just drooling on yourself sounds like a good idea.
0:43Elon MuskWe want to avoid that.
0:45Peter DiamandisYeah. So first off, congratulations on the merger of SpaceX and XAI Baller move going to power humanity's first Dyson swarm. So I'm curious, it truly is. What's your timeline for launching these data centers?
1:02Peter DiamandisAnd how much bandwidth do you think you can get in the first year? Give us a sense of the speed at which you're going to be making this happen.
1:11Elon MuskYeah, so SpaceX is, has filed. SpaceX is in the quiet period. I can't actually tell you things that would cause problems. Yeah.
1:26Peter DiamandisOh, I'll leave it, I'll leave it that. I appreciate that, but can't wait for the speed. You know, we had a conversation here on Monday with Eric Schmidt and with one of the leads from one of the other hyperscalers.
1:46Peter DiamandisI won't mention who, but I'm curious where you feel we are in recursive self improvement? Are we there? Do you see Grok doing recursive self improvement at this point?
1:56Peter DiamandisAnd how. What's the timeline for AGI and asi? Give us a sense of that.
2:03Elon MuskYeah, I think we've been in recursive improvement for a while here. If you mean by like recursive self improvement without a human in the loop, is that what you mean?
2:16Peter DiamandisI do. On the AI software side,
2:26Peter DiamandisI mean,
2:26Elon Muskhumans are gradually getting less and less in the loop on the recursive self improvement. So every successive model is built by the one before it. So that is happening to a large degree, but it's not yet fully automated.
2:50Peter DiamandisIt may be there
2:53Elon Muskend of this year, but not later than next year.
2:58Peter DiamandisDo you see a hard takeoff at that point?
3:01Elon MuskWe're in the hard takeoff.
3:03Peter DiamandisOkay.
3:04Elon MuskRight now, Yes. I mean, look at. I mean, at this point I go to sleep, there's some passive AI breakthrough and when I wake up, there's another one yes.
3:20Elon MuskYeah, it's hard to keep track, honestly. So, yeah, it's a bit of a head spinner.
3:23Peter DiamandisYeah, Well, I think a lot of the head spinning is happening from you too.
3:29Elon MuskYeah, well, you know, Groq's doing pretty well. And in some metrics, by some metrics, it's the best. For example, it's the best at predicting things, which, you know, is arguably the best metric for intelligence.
3:45Elon MuskThe new Grok 4.20 is really, really good. We're currently behind on coding. The reason I was a bit late for this was that I was just in a giant, sort of all hands on coding, just going through all of the things that need to happen to essentially catch up and exceed our competitors on coding, which I think we'll do.
4:13Elon MuskI feel we should probably get there by the middle of this year. And then I think people don't quite understand just how much intelligence there will be or just how far it will exceed human intelligence to a degree that is impossible to fully understand.
4:35Elon MuskBut you can certainly imagine a situation where we, let's say a million times more energy is harnessed than all of Earth's current electricity usage. That would still only be roughly a millionth of the sun's energy output.
4:58Elon MuskSo essentially, if you increase Earth's economy by a factor of a million, it's still roughly a trillion, since we're a trillionth of the Sun's energy. If you increase Earth's economy in terms of electricity usage by roughly a million, you will be roughly one millionth only of the sun's energy harnessed.
5:17Elon MuskBut what is it? What is, what is an economy or an intelligence using a million times more electricity than all of a civilization think about or look like or do, it's going to be something pretty magnificent.
5:31Elon MuskThe challenge will be even vaguely appreciating that level of intelligence. But it's safe to say it will solve everything you can possibly think of. Yes. Longevity being, you know, certainly one of them.
5:47Elon MuskAnd I, I do enjoy your unrelenting optimism.
5:52Peter DiamandisThank you, pal.
5:54Elon MuskI see. Hope. Hope, yeah, exactly. You've taken to heart monetizing hope, which is pretty funny. It was, it was Grox.
6:04Peter DiamandisIt was Grok's marketing advice to me when you roasted me on.
6:08Elon MuskRight. Probably roasting you and saying you monetize them. But hey, if you're going to spend the monetizing misery, I suppose, yes, for sure. Yeah. But yeah, just when you have AI and robots are going to increase the economic output or by so many orders of magnitude, we cannot possibly comprehend it,
6:40Peter Diamandiswe're Likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority, than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet.
6:51Elon MuskYes. Not even on this planet in the solar system.
6:54Peter DiamandisYes, for sure.
6:55Elon MuskBecause your best case outcome for Earth for intelligence is roughly one billionth of the sun's energy. That's your best case outcome. If you generate intelligence, only on Earth intercept it, right?
7:16Peter DiamandisYes.
7:17Elon MuskYes, because roughly one, roughly half of the Sun's energy hits Earth and that's the vast majority of energy that's out there that we can access. So really, the intelligence in the solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than the intelligence on Earth itself.
7:38Peter DiamandisHow. Can I ask you a question, Elon? How far out can you see, how many years out can you make reasonable predictions right now?
7:53Elon MuskIt's hard to predict the, the path exactly. Especially because often things are kind of an S curve or a series of S curves where it starts off slow, grows exponentially, hits linear zone and then goes logarithmic.
8:10Elon MuskThat generally has been what I've seen with breakthroughs in AI, for example, is there'll be some breakthrough. It'll have an S curve and then it looks like it's just going to go to infinity, but then you hit logarithmic returns until there's another breakthrough.
8:24Peter DiamandisYep.
8:26Elon MuskSo progress in AI is just a sort of series of, you know, sort of overlapping S curves or connected S curves.
8:38Peter DiamandisI mean, there was a point where you could probably predict out a decade or two decades. What are your thoughts now? Yeah.
8:55Elon MuskOkay. This is going to sound pretty crazy.
8:59Peter DiamandisIt's okay. We've been, we've been talking about crazy.
9:02Elon MuskReceptive audience to wild prognostications.
9:06Peter DiamandisYes.
9:14Elon MuskI'd say the economy is 10 times the sleep its current size in 10 years. Greater than.
9:20Peter DiamandisOkay. Yeah.
9:25Elon MuskYou really saying something?
9:26Peter DiamandisYeah. You said triple digit growth in, in 5 plus years from now on on GDP and 10x the economy. But in terms of your ability, I
9:38Elon Muskfeel like that's, that's, that's a 10x in roughly 10 years, I feel is actually a fairly comfortable prediction with if there's like World War 3 or something that could put a kink in those plans or those expectations.
10:01Elon MuskBut in the absence of World War 3, if current trends continue, I would say the economy, taxes in 10 years.
10:10Peter DiamandisLove it. Can you give us an. We had a bunch of.
10:12Elon MuskWe'll have a base on the moon.
10:14Peter DiamandisYes. And we'll, and we'll have, and we'll
10:16Elon Muskhave people on Mars and we'll have
10:18Peter Diamandismass drivers on the moon. Yes.
10:22Elon MuskI think so in 10 years, I think, I think we'll have a mass driver on the moon in 10 years.
10:26Peter DiamandisI love it. Gerard K. O' Neill's vision being fulfilled. We had four robots on stage here this year on the, at the Abundance Summit. I look forward to optimus.
10:40Peter DiamandisI'm curious Optimus 3 timeline and in particular, when can I buy one or two? When. When do you expect Optimus to go into commercial for commercial sale or will you be leasing it?
10:55Elon MuskWell, we're in the final stages of completion of Optimus 3, which is really going to be by far the most advanced robot in the world. Nothing's even close.
11:05Peter DiamandisYeah.
11:08Elon MuskIn fact, I haven't even seen any demos of robots that are as good as Optimus 3, frankly. Maybe they're out there or they're secret or something, I don't know.
11:16Elon MuskBut,
11:23Elon MuskYou know, and I have to make sure I'm saying things that are reasonably public as well.
11:27Peter DiamandisOf course, we're streaming this on X. Yeah.
11:30Elon MuskOkay. This is pretty public and accurate.
11:32Peter DiamandisYes.
11:36Elon MuskYeah. I think we'll start production on Optimus three this summer, but very slow at first. Like this sort of classic S curve ramp of manufacturing units versus time and then probably reach high volume production around summer next year.
12:02Elon MuskAnd then, you know, we'll have Optimus 4, you know, design clean next year, like try to release a new robot design every year. An improved robot design every year.
12:17Peter DiamandisWhen Dave Blunden and I were at the Gigafactory, it was an extraordinary experience. Eleven and a half million square feet for the Tesla. And then I think you said you're building out nine and a half million square feet for Optimus there as well, which is, which is extraordinary.
12:33Elon MuskLet's, let's say my square feet. Random is. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
12:37Peter DiamandisI had.
12:39Elon MuskThat'll be quite that. That's going to be a new factory design too. Like it's not different from other factories.
12:48Peter DiamandisHow far before we have robots building robots? I mean, you automated so much of the Gigafactory already where there are humans playing a small role. Do the robots just play the role that humans are playing in that regard?
13:04Elon MuskWe still have a lot of humans building things. Tesla direct employees who are building things or like basically people in the factory are either building or managing people in the building is roughly 100,000.
13:20Elon MuskSo we have a lot of people. Tesla total headcount's around 150k. Of which two thirds are, you know, in the factory in one form or another. And then our suppliers, there's probably maybe a million or 2 million people.
13:35Elon MuskIn our suppliers type of thing. So it's a lot of people. What we do expect that is that the output per person at Tesla becomes very, very high. Yeah.
13:50Elon MuskSo we're not planning any, like, layoffs or reductions in personnel. In fact, we will increase our headcount, but the output per human at Tesla is going to get nutty high.
14:03Peter DiamandisWhen we were, like, when we were together, we discussed the idea of sustainable abundance on our podcast. And you reinforce the idea that we have a coming age of universal high income, which has become a point of discussion beyond ubi, But I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts on how we get there.
14:25Peter DiamandisHave you reflected that any further and more. So, you know, we talked about a time frame of civil unrest, you know, two, three, four, five years, probably a lot of COVID like checks in the interim until we get to a demonetization and a, you know, deflation that leads us to uhi.
14:47Peter DiamandisAny more reflections on that? People need that hope and that vision. Yeah.
14:55Elon MuskI mean, to be clear, I don't think we should be sort of complacent. We do need to be careful because the future is a range of possible outcomes and they're not all great.
15:05Elon MuskBut at this point, I do agree with you that it's likely to be great. It's probably 80% likely, maybe more likely to be great. And I do think we'll have universal high income.
15:19Elon MuskWe're basically just issuing money to people. And really just because the output of goods and services will so far exceed the money supply that you know that effectively you have deflation.
15:36Elon MuskBecause just deflation is just the ratio of the outputs of goods and services to the money supply. So that, that's. So if the rate of growth of goods and services far exceeds the rate of growth of the money supply, which I predict will happen, then you will have deflation.
15:55Peter DiamandisYes. And a lot of. A lot of people spinning up new companies, competing against each other, driving the price down and increasing the variability and deflation faster and faster.
16:07Elon MuskYeah, it's basically AI and robots are going to make so much stuff and provide so many services that they will actually run out of things to do for the humans.
16:18Elon MuskThey'll just run out of things to do for the humans. And then they. Well, you know, there's only so much that humans can even express that they want. So you go back to my example of like, if you go a million times greater than the Earth's economy, you've long since saturated all human desire.
16:40Elon MuskYou know, like maybe, like if you go a thousand times More than our current economy. Thousand times. You probably have already saturated human. Anything people can think of that they want.
16:53Peter DiamandisSo do you think the value of money is going to significantly decrease? Will we go post capitalist?
17:04Elon MuskYeah, I think money will stop being relevant at some point in the future.
17:09Peter DiamandisSo just as you're becoming a.
17:11Elon MuskIt's probably something like an index culture sort of future. And I think the AI down the road will really not use human currency. It will just care about power and mass wattage and tonnage.
17:31Peter DiamandisIt's kind of ironic then, right? Just as you're becoming a multi trillionaire, money starts to have less value?
17:41Elon MuskYeah, pretty much, yeah. You know, there's all this stuff. It's really just trillionaires represents like some percentage ownership in companies that I built. And it's not like sitting in the bank account.
17:58Elon MuskIt's just literally I own a percentage of the companies. The companies are doing lots of useful things. The value of the company grows. I own a percentage of the companies and that's the sums up to that number, which seems high.
18:09Peter DiamandisYeah, you know, it's. I was interviewed by somebody who was asking me about your, your drive, what drives you. And I said, elon's driven to solve problems. He's driven to make life in the world better by just solving the biggest problems over and over and over again.
18:29Peter DiamandisAnd if someone else were solving them, he wouldn't need to. But no one else is solving them. So I just want to say thank you for that, pal. Thank you for that.
18:39Elon MuskYou're welcome.
18:46Peter DiamandisI am curious, do you think that democracy and our modern institutions can keep up with this supersonic tsunami coming our way? Are they just going to fall in its way?
18:58Peter DiamandisThey're just going to break down. How do we deal?
19:10Elon MuskI mean, it's called the singularity for a reason, you know that it's hard to predict what happens in the singularity. I mean, Grok's logo is the singularity.
19:19Peter DiamandisI love it. It's a beautiful logo behind you, by the way. It's gorgeous.
19:22Elon MuskYeah. Thank you. Yeah. So the halo around a black hole is the mass and light are falling in type of thing. It's hard to know what happens inside the singularity, but it's going to be very interesting.
19:41Elon MuskLike we're going to live in the future will be very entertaining of that I'm confident.
19:45Peter DiamandisYes.
19:48Elon MuskAnd I, I think also like AI and robotics, also the only way we're going to solve our budget deficit, frankly, and, and not just go bankrupt as a country.
20:00Elon MuskSo I, I'm, I'm you know, you've had an influence on me. And then I'm like, just. I've just decided to be more optimistic. It's like, we just should be more optimistic.
20:10Peter DiamandisThank you, pal.
20:11Elon MuskYou know, not that I wasn't optim. An optimist, but I was like, maybe dwelling a little too much on the negative stuff.
20:17Peter DiamandisIt's all upside, being an optimist and a realist a little bit.
20:21Elon MuskYeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. You don't want to be complacent or just assume everything's going to go well, but try to make it go well. But, I mean, there will be some pretty amazing things that happen.
20:34Elon MuskSo if you've got humanoid robots that are. That have very high dexterity and are incredibly smart, it means that everyone on Earth will have access to better medical care than the richest person on Earth.
20:52Elon MuskWhich, by the way, I would say, like, you know, if I'm allegedly the rich person, I think actually sovereigns are richer than me, by the way. But it's, you know, like, I had to have, like, a neck surgery three times because the first two ones were done wrong.
21:06Elon MuskYou know, like, I'm like, what that. You know, so. And I, like, my back still hurts a little bit. I'm like, can AI please solve back pain? That would be a huge win.
21:19Elon MuskAnd I think it will.
21:21Peter DiamandisYep.
21:22Elon MuskSo, you know, back pain sucks. I think that's maybe, like, you know, sometimes. Why do people get grumpy when they get older? It's because of back pain. It's like, if your back hurts all the time, you can't sleep well, you're going to be grumpy.
21:33Peter DiamandisWe had.
21:34Elon MuskBut if you.
21:35Peter DiamandisWe had David Sinclair on stage this morning, and he's going into human trials with ER100. His partial epigenetic reprogramming and one of the papers recently published shows it enables joint repair.
21:49Peter DiamandisAnd so back pain may be one of the things that it eliminates.
21:54Elon MuskSo that would be amazing.
21:56Peter DiamandisYeah, for sure, for sure.
21:58Elon MuskHonestly, the average happiness level for humans would just go up tremendously if you just saw back pain. Because it's not a question of if you'll get back pain, is when you'll get back pain.
22:09Peter DiamandisI. I keep on inviting.
22:11Elon MuskNot a good design.
22:12Peter DiamandisI keep on inviting you to come down to Fountain Life in. In Dallas. We'll. We'll help you out. But sometime when you have time, you
22:19Elon Muskhave, like, what do you. I understand. Like, you can get like, MRI and CAT scans and everything, but, like, what do you do with that? You know, it's like, happy to.
22:26Peter DiamandisHappy to send you the list. I'll. I'll DM you the list. Yeah, exactly. You know, listen, you've been so generous. Next up on stage with me is one of another great moonshot entrepreneur, Ben Lamb, who runs Colossal, the de extinction company.
22:46Peter DiamandisYou know, the woolly mammoth and 15 other species. I heard. I heard you say you might want a mini woolly mammoth.
22:53Elon MuskIs that.
22:53Peter DiamandisIs that true?
22:54Elon MuskYeah. I think it would be really cool to have a pet miniature woolly mammoth. That was pretty epic.
23:00Peter DiamandisOkay, I'll put a word in for you with Ben.
23:04Elon MuskThat'd be adorable. Little things just running around trumpeting away and it's like, look at that. We had a great little pet.
23:11Peter DiamandisAmazing.
23:14Elon MuskCan somebody please do Jurassic park in real life? I'd definitely go. Even if there was some risk of death, that'd be super cool.
23:22Peter DiamandisI think if anybody's going to do that, it's Ben Lamb in Colossal. He's really re. He's engineering living life products. Someone asked him recently if he could make a Pikachu and he said, probably,
23:35Elon Muskyeah, well, Jurassic Jurassic World, whatever. That would be great.
23:41Peter DiamandisAll right, I'll ask him.
23:43Elon MuskYeah.
23:43Peter DiamandisElon, so grateful for you coming and joining us and sharing. Thank you, my. Thank you, my friend. Let's give it up for Elon Musk.