He said Tesla would probably have a prototype sometime next year.
"we'll probably have a prototype sometime next year"
When will Optimus be produced at scale?
Q17104 answers2021-2026
Short answer
He said Optimus deliveries to customers are likely towards the end of 2027.
All 104 answers, oldest to newest
2021 · 3 answers
Tesla is building a humanoid robot, like the car but with legs. He held off because he did not want to hasten the AI apocalypse.
"are building a humanoid robot that will"
Making a useful humanoid robot that can interact with the world is an extremely useful thing Tesla can do.
"make a useful humanoid robot"
2022 · 6 answers
Optimus is a general-purpose worker droid; initial roles would be tasks people do not want to do.
"sort of worker droid"
Cost will not be crazy high, like less than a car. First prototype sometime this year, something useful next year, quite likely within two years; home units in less than ten years.
"Like less than a car"
He said Tesla had a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus, hopefully the next year.
"I think we have a shot at being in production for version one of Optimus, hopefully next year."
He said the goal is to make a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible.
"Our goal is to make a useful humanoid robot as quickly as possible."
He said it was the first time the robot operated without a tether, on stage that night.
"It's literally the first time the robot has operated without a tether was on stage tonight."
The Optimus humanoid robot will use Tesla manufacturing and self-driving intelligence. If labor is no longer a constraint, it is not clear there is any limit to the size of the economy.
"useful humanoid robot"
2023 · 7 answers
He said the same AI drives the car, a robot on wheels, and Optimus, a robot on legs.
"So the same AI that drives the car, which you can think of the car really as a robot on wheels and this is a robot on legs."
He predicted a majority of Tesla's long-term value will be Optimus.
"So my prediction is that Tesla's long term value will be a majority of long term value will be Optimus."
He said when a Neuralink is combined with Optimus robot limbs, the Luke Skywalker solution can become real.
"When a Neuralink is combined with Optimus robot limbs, the Luke Skywalker solution can become real."
He says nobody will do humanoid robots better than Tesla and Boston Dynamics' robot lacks a brain.
"I don't think anyone's going to do it better than Tesla, not by a long shot."
He says Optimus must be designed for mass manufacture and eventually robots will manufacture the robots.
"at some point the robots will manufacture the robots."
He says Optimus could barely walk a year earlier and now can do yoga.
"Optimus a year ago could barely walk and now it can do yoga."
He said neuralink plus Optimus has potential for incredible artificial limbs
"Neuralink plus Optimus has potential for incredible artificial limbs"
2024 · 22 answers
He said important note: Optimus cannot yet do this autonomously, but certainly will be able to do this fully autonomously and in an arbitrary environment (won’t require a fixed table with box that has only one shirt)
"Important note: Optimus cannot yet do this autonomously, but certainly will be able to do this fully autonomously and in an arbitrary environment (won’t require a fixed table with box that has only one shirt)"
He said 2 years to meet, 3 years to beat No acquisitions, Optimus is a startup
"2 years to meet, 3 years to beat No acquisitions, Optimus is a startup"
He said optimus limbs, replacing lost human limbs, could ultimately be controlled with superhuman dexterity by an implanted Neuralink. Deus Ex / Cyberpunk irl.
"Optimus limbs, replacing lost human limbs, could ultimately be controlled with superhuman dexterity by an implanted Neuralink. Deus Ex / Cyberpunk irl."
In April 2024 he guessed Tesla might sell Optimus externally by the end of 2025.
"I think we may be able to sell it externally by the end of next year."
He says Tesla is best positioned of any humanoid robot maker to reach volume production.
"Tesla is best positioned of any humanoid robot maker to be able to reach volume production"
He said no real limit, because an economy is productivity per capita times capita. Intelligent humanoid robots uncork capita.
"No real limit, because an economy is productivity per capita times capita. Intelligent humanoid robots uncork capita."
He predicted a majority of Tesla's long-term value will be Optimus.
"My prediction is that a majority of Tesla's long term value will be optimus."
He said the Optimus build rate would ultimately be something like a billion a year.
"I think the build rate will be probably something ultimately like a billion year."
He said I’m curious to read this. The more I think about robotaxis and humanoid robots, the more absurd the valuation becomes.
"I’m curious to read this. The more I think about robotaxis and humanoid robots, the more absurd the valuation becomes."
He said 😂 Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated. Even Gates.
"😂 Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production, anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated. Even Gates."
He said the new Optimus design, which will be complete later this year, is something special
"The new Optimus design, which will be complete later this year, is something special"
He said tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026
"Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026"
In July 2024 he expected several thousand Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of 2025, with production ramping in 2026.
"we expect to have several thousand Optimus robots produced and doing useful things by the end of next year in the Tesla factories and then in 2026 ramping up production quite a bit."
In July 2024 he said limited production of Optimus production version one was expected to start early the next year, for Tesla's own use.
"we expect to have Optimus production version one and limited production starting early next year."
Three major design iterations, then ~1M+/yr; cost around $20k ('less than a small car'); maybe 5-6 years to a million units a year.
"it's probably on the order of five five years yeah uh maybe six to get to a million units a year"
He said at scale an Optimus robot should cost about $20,000 to $30,000 long-term.
"you should be able to buy an Optimus robot for I think probably $20,000 to $30,000 long-term."
Asked Elon Musk is turning sci-fi movies into reality !!! Remember I Robot, he said optimus and autonomous cars only get better from here
"Optimus and autonomous cars only get better from here"
He says Tesla has the most advanced humanoid robot by a long shot and all the ingredients to scale.
"I feel confident saying that we have most advanced humanoid robot by long shot."
He said well, Optimus is already doing some tasks in the factory and the scope of its ability is increasing rapidly. The toughest part by far is improving the design of Optimus for ease of manufacturing and tooling up a compl...
"Well, Optimus is already doing some tasks in the factory and the scope of its ability is increasing rapidly. The toughest part by far is improving the design of Optimus for ease of manufacturing and tooling up a complex supply chain, so it can be made in significant numbers."
He said optimus is a very sophisticated robot. It will be immensely difficult to get the cost to $20k. Not easy at all, but it will eventually happen. Production volume needs to be above 1M/year for that. Price will be driven...
"Optimus is a very sophisticated robot. It will be immensely difficult to get the cost to $20k. Not easy at all, but it will eventually happen. Production volume needs to be above 1M/year for that. Price will be driven by demand, but eventually even price will get to ~$20k."
He said i forgot to mention that Optimus was doing this while “blindfolded”. We haven’t yet made vision part of the control loop for uneven terrain. Optimus robots are regularly cruising around our workplace in Palo Alto wher...
"I forgot to mention that Optimus was doing this while “blindfolded”. We haven’t yet made vision part of the control loop for uneven terrain. Optimus robots are regularly cruising around our workplace in Palo Alto where vision is used for static & dynamic object avoidance."
He said optimus can now walk on highly variable ground using neural nets to control its electric limbs. Join @Tesla if you want to work on interesting real-world AI systems.
"Optimus can now walk on highly variable ground using neural nets to control its electric limbs. Join @Tesla if you want to work on interesting real-world AI systems."
2025 · 44 answers
He said it will even do your laundry when Optimus is available!
"It will even do your laundry when Optimus is available!"
In January 2025 he said Tesla's internal plan called for about 10,000 Optimus robots to be built in 2025.
"the normal internal plan calls for roughly 10,000 Optimus robots to be built this year."
In January 2025 he said the 2025 plan was to "close the loop" by using Optimus internally at Tesla.
"for this year we expect to just close the loop with Optimus being used internally at Tesla."
In January 2025 he said the first Optimus line was designed for about 1,000 units a month, with later lines at 10,000 and 100,000 a month.
"the current line that we're designing is for roughly 1000 units a month of Optimus robots."
In January 2025 he said Tesla probably would not build 10,000 Optimus robots that year, but would make several thousand.
"But will we succeed in making several thousand? Yes, I think we will."
He says Optimus is not design-locked and is being redesigned as it goes.
"Optimus is not design locked."
In January 2025 he said Optimus production version two would probably launch the next year, ideally early, maybe more like mid-year.
"production version two, which I think launches sometime next year."
He says prototypes are easy and production is hard.
"prototypes are trivial basically. Prototypes are easy. Production is hard."
He says Tesla will always be in a can't-build-enough situation for Optimus; demand will not be a problem.
"we're always going to be in the we can't build enough situation. Demand will not be a problem."
He says Optimus units used in Tesla factories will inform production design two, expected the next year.
"those Optimus in use at the Tesla factories for production design one will inform how what we change for production design two"
He says the aspiration is to ramp Optimus by an order of magnitude per year.
"meaning like aspirationally, an order of magnitude ramp per year."
Tesla is building the most advanced humanoid robot, directed by deep intelligence at the data-center level.
"with Tesla building the most advanced humanoid robot"
He said Tesla hoped to make about 5,000 Optimus robots that year.
"So this year, we hopefully will be able to make about 5,000 Optimus robots."
He predicted Optimus will be the biggest product of all time by far.
"my prediction is that on this front is that Optimus will be the biggest product of all time by far"
He said but when did they start vs when did we form the humanoid robotics team at Tesla?
"But when did they start vs when did we form the humanoid robotics team at Tesla?"
He said the rate of improvement is indeed rapid. There will be a legion of Optimus robots this year.
"The rate of improvement is indeed rapid. There will be a legion of Optimus robots this year."
In April 2025 he expected thousands of Optimus robots to be working in Tesla factories by the end of 2025.
"we expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year"
He predicted Optimus production of one million units a year by 2030, possibly 2029.
"2030, I feel confident in predicting a million Optimus units per year. It might be 2029."
He says a new complex product ramps only as fast as its slowest and least lucky component.
"it'll move as fast as the slowest and least lucky component in the entire thing."
He says anyone who claims to predict precisely the production ramp of a truly new product does not know what they are talking about.
"anyone here tells you they can predict with precision the production ramp of a truly new product is, doesn't know what they're talking about."
He says almost everything in Optimus is new, with no existing supply chain.
"almost everything in Optimus is new. There's not like an existing supply chain for the motors, gearboxes, electronics, actuators."
He feels confident in reaching a million Optimus units per year in less than five years, maybe four.
"I think feel confident in getting to a million units per year in less than five years, maybe four years."
He stresses Optimus is still very much a development program, not large-volume production.
"Optimus is still very much a development program."
He said it does this every day in our Palo Alto lab. And multiple Optimus robots walk around the office 24/7 with no one watching over them, charging themselves as needed.
"It does this every day in our Palo Alto lab. And multiple Optimus robots walk around the office 24/7 with no one watching over them, charging themselves as needed."
He said not correct. We are building a production line to enable 1000/month Optimus production, but that is still many months away.
"Not correct. We are building a production line to enable 1000/month Optimus production, but that is still many months away."
He said so many improvements to come in the next design of Optimus
"So many improvements to come in the next design of Optimus"
He said Optimus V3 is going to be excellent.
"Optimus V3 is going to be 🤌 Excellent review w @Tesla_Optimus team"
He says version 3 is the design to take to volume production. Rather than make thousands of version 2 units, Tesla paused for a much better v3 and plans to scale production significantly next year.
"version three of option I think is the right design to go to volume production"
He said that is Optimus 2.5, and Optimus 3 will have agility roughly equal to an agile human.
"That’s Optimus 2.5. Optimus 3 will have agility roughly equal to an agile human."
He said everyone will want at least one Optimus personally, like their own R2-D2/C-3PO.
"It’s much bigger than that because everyone will want at least one Optimus personally. Who wouldn’t want their own personal R2-D2/3CPO?"
They are finalizing Optimus version 3: human-level hands, a mind that can navigate reality, and high-volume production, which he says no other robotics company has. At a million units a year, production cost is around $20–25k; he is spending more mental cycles on Optimus than on anything else.
"once you hit a million units per year uh is probably around the $20,000 range"
He said Optimus is a hard problem in engineering, design and especially manufacturing.
"Optimus is a hard problem in engineering, design and especially manufacturing"
He said they have not shown Optimus V3 yet, it is sublime, and the other images were V2 and V2.5.
"We haven’t shown Optimus V3 yet. It is sublime. The second two images are V2 and V2.5."
He said Optimus is twice the weight of typical demos and almost impossible to knock over.
"Optimus is twice the weight and almost impossible to knock over"
He said Tesla is working hard on scaling Optimus.
"Tesla is working hard on scaling Optimus"
He said after an Optimus engineering and manufacturing review that Optimus will be even better than a personal C-3PO and R2-D2.
"Great @Tesla_Optimus engineering & manufacturing review today! Imagine having your personal C-3PO & R2-D2 … Optimus will be even better."
Optimus, hopefully starting production at scale next year; everyone will want a personal C3PO.
"starting production hopefully some next year"
Rough guess: a year after reaching a million units a year of steady-state production, Optimus labor and materials should be $20-30k in current dollars.
"labor and materials to be 20 to 30,000 in current year dollars"
There are no useful humanoid robots yet; Tesla aims to make the first, and everyone will want a personal C-3PO / R2-D2. Humanoid robots will be the biggest product ever.
"who wouldn't want their own personal C3PO"
He said Optimus production would start with a million-unit line in Fremont, then a 10 million line, and could literally reach 100 million a year.
"I think it's it's going to literally get to 100 million a year"
He said Optimus power consumption can come down closer to 250 Watts, and that Tesla would not use any other inference chip in cars and robots even if they were free.
"Looks like we can bring power consumption down closer to 250 Watts, which is a big deal for Optimus. Important to note that AI5 is a specialized inference chip for the Tesla AI software. That said, it will perform – for our purposes – much better than anything else available. To borrow Jensen’s phrase, we wouldn’t use any other chip in our cars and robots even if they were free!"
He called Optimus 3 an exquisite work of art.
"Optimus 3 is an exquisite work of art"
He said government healthcare is like having the DMV as your doctor, and that Grok and Optimus will provide incredible healthcare for all.
"Government healthcare is like having the DMV as your doctor. Grok and Optimus will provide incredible healthcare for all."
He said the Optimus hardware and Tesla AI team are doing incredible work.
"The Optimus hardware and @teslasi team are doing incredible work!"
2026 · 22 answers
Optimus is already doing simple factory tasks; more complex industrial work by the end of this year; selling humanoid robots to the public by the end of next year, once reliability, safety, and range of tasks are very high.
"we'd be selling humanoid robots uh to the public"
He does not know yet whether Tesla will sell or only lease the robots. There will be an initial scarcity, then plenty, with only about five years between those states.
"there will be initially a scarcity of robots and then there will be robots will be plentiful"
He said Optimus will be amazing for protecting and taking care of elderly parents.
"Optimus will be amazing for protecting and taking care of your elderly parents"
He said Tesla is worth more than the rest of the auto industry due to autonomy, and that is before Optimus at scale increases Earth GDP by an order of magnitude.
"Also, due to autonomy, Tesla is worth more than the rest of the auto industry. That is before Optimus reaches scale production and increases Earth GDP by an order of magnitude."
He said the Model S/X line in Fremont will be converted into an Optimus line, which he is confident will reach a million Optimus 3 units a year.
"But I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year in Fremont of Optimus 3."
He said there is a possible future where Optimus and space AI vastly exceed Earth's current goods and services output.
"There is possible future where Optimus and space AI vastly exceed the current goods & services output of Earth"
Correcting a claim Optimus would be built in California, he said Optimus 4 will be built in Texas at much higher volume.
"Optimus 4 will be built in Texas at much higher volume"
Optimus 3 is the version for ~a million units a year; the S-curve will ramp slowly with no supply chain.
"Optimus 3 is the right version of the robot to produce something on the order of a million units a year"
He said yes, Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.
"Yes. Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet."
He agreed Optimus is meant to build civilization on any viable planet, but said there is clearly a lot of work to do before it is capable of that.
"But clearly there is a lot of work to do before Optimus is capable of doing so 😂"
He said Optimus will be the biggest product ever.
"Optimus will be the biggest product ever"
Optimus 3 is in final stages; production starts this summer very slowly, with high volume around summer next year, then a new robot design each year.
"we'll start production on Optimus three this summer"
Tesla will soon start Optimus production, but he said it will be the hardest product the company has ever scaled because every part is new and there is no existing supply chain; the early S-curve will be flat and long.
"This is going to be the hardest product to scale manufacturing that we've ever made at Tesla"
He said Optimus will be epic.
"Optimus will be epic"
He said one day Optimus plus Grok will provide incredible medical care to all the people of Earth.
"One day, Optimus + Grok will provide incredible medical care to all the people of Earth"
General-purpose hands (precision plus force, touch sensors, wear) are shockingly hard; many demo videos are canned. High-volume production is coming but the start of the S-curve will be very slow, including building a US supply chain after China magnet export controls set the program back 2–3 months.
"the initial part of that scurve of of production ramp is going to be very slow at the beginning"
He said Tesla cut AI5 RAM in half to 72GB LP5 and AI6 to 144GB LP6 to get Optimus production volume and cut cost; he expects little performance hit because bandwidth (held constant) matters more than capacity.
"We cut our RAM in half for the Tesla AI5 chip (now 72GB of LP5) and 1/3 for AI6 (now 144GB of LP6). This was the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production and greatly reduces cost. As it turns out, we think this will have a negligible effect on Optimus performance, as memory bandwidth is a bigger limiting factor than total memory storage (bandwidth was held constant)."
Follow-up on the AI5 RAM cut: they nudged AI5 up to 96GB so Tesla would not be the only company using the minimum LP5 RAM version.
"Actually, we decided to nudge AI5 up a little to 96GB, as Tesla would otherwise be the only company using the min RAM version of LP5"
He said Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla's value.
"Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value."
He said early Optimus production has begun in Fremont, but deliveries to outside companies should be expected around the end of 2027.
"I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. So that's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla."
He said most of a million-unit Optimus line is in Fremont, but reaching that annualized rate will take at least a year.
"But I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer to get to that annualized rate"
He said Optimus deliveries to customers are likely towards the end of 2027.
"I'd be stunned if anyone has a robot that is remotely competitive with Optimus when we go, when we start delivering it to customers, which is likely to be towards the end of next year."