He said the odds we are in base reality are one in billions, and we should hope that is true because otherwise we either create indistinguishable simulations or civilization ceases to exist.
"well i think it's one in billions"
Are we in a simulation?
Q1837 answers2014-2026
Short answer
He told a dinner story: a leading physicist said 0% and a leading computer scientist said 100% at the same time, so he split the difference at about 50%. He also said if simulation theory is correct, boring simulations get truncated, so the fact we exist means this one is interesting — don't be boring.
All 37 answers, oldest to newest
2014 · 2 answers
He answered an audience VR question by saying maybe we are in a simulation right now, then sketched video games becoming indistinguishable from reality.
"maybe we're in a simulation right now"
2015 · 1 answer
It is probabilistic: video games went from Pong to photorealistic 3D with millions of people, so advanced civilizations would make simulations like our existence.
"it's it's a probabilistic thing"
2016 · 1 answer
After the Pong-to-photorealistic-games argument, he said the odds this is base reality are one in billions.
"Well, I think it's one in billions"
2017 · 2 answers
Video games went from Pong to almost photorealistic. Extrapolate any rate of progress and those games will be indistinguishable from reality. How do we know that did not already happen, and that we are not in one of those games?
"eventually those games will be indistinguishable from reality"
Muses that the singularity for this level of the simulation is coming soon.
"The singularity for this level of the simulation is coming soon. I wonder what the levels above us look like."
2018 · 3 answers
He said the argument for the simulation is quite strong given any rate of improvement over long time frames.
"the argument for the simulation, I think is quite strong"
He said if we are in a simulation, base reality outside it is most likely really boring.
"I think most likely if we're a simulation, it's really boring outside"
Jokes that if there is no listener, a simulation probably wouldn't spend computing power on sound.
"Yes, if there is no listener, a simulation probably wouldn’t spend computing power on sound"
2019 · 2 answers
He said one or two things are going to happen: civilization will end, or games will be so realistic you can't tell the difference between them and reality. We could be somebody's video game right now.
"civilization will end our games will be so realistic that you can't tell the difference"
He said AI will get to the point where it can completely simulate a person in every way, many people simultaneously. There is a strong argument we are in a simulation right now. If life were a video game the review would be: graphics incredible, plot confusing, respawn takes a long time.
"there's a strong argument we're in a simulation right now"
2021 · 2 answers
He tells the host he is an adherent of the simulation hypothesis.
"So I'm actually an adherent to the simulation hypothesis."
Asked if we are in a simulation, he said his heart says no and his brain says yes.
"my heart says no and my brain says"
2023 · 1 answer
Asked Do you think we're living in a simulation, he said i guess I’d try to figure if there is some way to know what it is like outside the simulation
"I guess I’d try to figure if there is some way to know what it is like outside the simulation"
2024 · 5 answers
If we are in a simulation, keep it interesting so it is not switched off; keep the ratings up.
"if we are in a simulation"
He said they will turn off the simulation way before then. It’s probably not worth the compute beyond a trillion years, maybe even 100B.
"They will turn off the simulation way before then. It’s probably not worth the compute beyond a trillion years, maybe even 100B."
He said the state of the cat is only rendered by the simulation when it is observed, just like a video game
"The state of the cat is only rendered by the simulation when it is observed, just like a video game"
He said below Planck-length (smallest measurable distance), there is no practical purpose for digits of pi and it can be thought of as a ~66 digit integer that describes the number of voxels in this reality/simulation
"Below Planck-length (smallest measurable distance), there is no practical purpose for digits of pi and it can be thought of as a ~66 digit integer that describes the number of voxels in this reality/simulation"
He said the simulation difficulty is set to extremely hard … but not impossible
"The simulation difficulty is set to extremely hard … but not impossible"
2025 · 9 answers
He said we are in an ironic entertainment maximizing simulation
"We are in an ironic entertainment maximizing simulation"
He said if simulation theory is correct, then my theory is probably right, as boring simulations are terminated to save compute costs, which is what we do to simulations in our reality!
"If simulation theory is correct, then my theory is probably right, as boring simulations are terminated to save compute costs, which is what we do to simulations in our reality!"
He said many-worlds quantum mechanics makes complete sense in simulation theory.
"This all makes complete sense in simulation theory"
He is not completely convinced. If simulation theory is true, the most interesting outcome is the most likely because boring simulations get turned off. Games going from Pong to photorealistic in one lifetime, plus AI video, make base reality look statistically unlikely.
"the most interesting outcome is the is the most likely"
Probability is pretty high; the most interesting outcome is the most likely because boring simulations get stopped.
"the most interesting outcome is the most likely"
He said he is not saying we are for sure in a simulation, but concluding we are not based on pseudoscience is ridiculous.
"I’m not saying we’re for sure in a simulation, but reaching the firm conclusion that we are not based on pseudoscience is ridiculous"
He said a Planck cube is the voxel size of the simulation.
"A Planck cube is the voxel size of the simulation"
If simulation theory is right, boring runs get stopped, so the most interesting outcome is the most likely. Apply Darwin to simulations: keep it interesting or face annihilation.
"the most interesting outcome is the most likely"
On a burst of Tesla good news, he said the simulation is very entertaining.
"The simulation is very entertaining"
2026 · 9 answers
He thinks we are an nth-generation simulation. If simulation theory is true, only the most interesting simulations survive, because we truncate boring ones; a simulation might also be stopped if it became dangerous to the base reality.
"only the simulations that are the most interesting will survive"
If simulation theory is correct, the most interesting outcome is most likely, often the most ironic.
"only the most interesting simulations will survive"
On the matter-antimatter asymmetry, he said this variant of reality/simulation is more interesting.
"Because this variant of reality/simulation is more interesting"
He said a top physicist and a top computer scientist, asked the probability we are in a simulation, answered 0% and 100% at the same time.
"I had dinner once with a top physicist and a top computer scientist and asked what they thought the probability was that we were in a simulation. They answered simultaneously at 0% and 100% respectively. It was like a double-slit experiment, but with humans."
He said there is a good chance we're in a simulation, not that we're definitely in one.
"I think there is a good chance we’re in a simulation, not that we’re definitely in one"
He said there is a good chance we are in a simulation, not that we definitely are.
"I think there is a good chance we’re in a simulation, not that we’re definitely in one"
He said a physics clip was consistent with the simulation hypothesis: like a video game, objects are randomly generated with positional certainty only when observed.
"Consistent with the simulation hypothesis. Like a video game, objects are randomly generated, with positional certainty only when observed."
He said randomly generated objects with positional certainty only when observed are consistent with the simulation hypothesis.
"Consistent with the simulation hypothesis."
He told a dinner story: a leading physicist said 0% and a leading computer scientist said 100% at the same time, so he split the difference at about 50%. He also said if simulation theory is correct, boring simulations get truncated, so the fact we exist means this one is interesting — don't be boring.
"the physicist said 0% and the computer scientist said 100% simultaneously. So, I guess maybe I should go 50% then."
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