Says unsupervised self-driving needs real-world AI because roads are designed for biological neural nets and eyes.
"A major part of real-world AI has to be solved to make unsupervised, generalized full self-driving work, as the entire road system is designed for biological neural nets with optical imagers"
Says generalized self-driving requires solving a large part of real-world AI, which was harder than expected.
"Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of real-world AI. Didn’t expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect."
Calls a general self-driving solution essentially real-world AI and one of the hardest technology problems.
"A general solution to self-driving (essentially, real-world AI) requires writing extremely difficult software in the arenas of training, inference, control, analytical tools, data management, hardware optimization & simulation.
One of the hardest technology problems that exists."
Says the only path to self-driving is hardcore real-world AI software, dedicated inference chips, a huge training cluster and 10B+ miles of data.
"They have no idea how hard FSD is. Only path to success imo is hardcore real-world AI software with dedicated NN inference acceleration ASICs in car, multibillion dollar NN training supercluster and 10+ billion miles of vehicle data."
Says real-world AI is a different thing from a language model.
"Real-world AI is not an LLM"
He calls Tesla's driving AI "baby AGI" because it has to understand reality to drive.
"It's basically baby AGI. It has to understand reality in order to drive."
He says full self-driving needs something like baby AGI in the car, because it must understand messy reality.
"to make full self driving work, you kind of need baby AGI in the car because you need to understand reality and reality is messy and complicated."
He imagines 100 million Teslas with about a kilowatt of inference compute each, 100 gigawatts in total.
"you can imagine a future perhaps where there's a fleet of 100 million Teslas and on average they've got like maybe a kilowatt of inference compute. That's 100 gigawatts of inference compute"
He says Tesla is learning quite a bit from xAI, which has helped FSD and the new data center.
"I should say that Tesla is learning quite a bit from xai."
He says others pursue parts of the AI robotics stack while Tesla pursues all of them.
"while others are pursuing different parts of the AI robotics stack, we are pursuing all of them."
He distinguishes xAI's work on general intelligence from Tesla's work on autonomous cars and robots.
"XAI is working on artificial general intelligence or artificial superintelligence."
He agreed. Dolphins and whales are intelligent but cannot manipulate complex objects, which limits how much intelligence they can bring to bear. Once a robot can manipulate atoms and shape objects, the value of intelligence becomes exponentially greater — it can run a science lab. He guessed digital superintelligence alone improves goods and services about 20 to 30%, maybe $30 trillion a year; with robots, space, and a mass driver on the Moon, potentially a million times the size of Earth's economy.
"once you have a robot that can manipulate atoms can shape objects the the value of the of the intelligence um becomes exponentially greater."
Last updated: 2026-10 (newest answer).