Timelines, self-driving and robots
- Q8 Why are your timelines so often late?
He says his prediction batting average is very high, with a 'Cassandra effect', though timing may be off.
- Q16 How good is Tesla self-driving?
He said fully autonomous miles are growing very fast week over week.
- Q105 When will Tesla Semi have self-driving?
An autonomous Semi matters because of the trucker shortage and for safety, but Semi volume is still tiny, so FSD work stays on Model 3, Y and Cybercab for the next six months. He expects Semi self-driving around the end of 2026 or early 2027, in time for high production.
- Q17 When will Optimus be produced at scale?
He said Optimus deliveries to customers are likely towards the end of 2027.
- Q40 How many robots will there be?
He said Tesla needs on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 Optimus robots doing self-play to gather training data.
- Q56 Why make Optimus a humanoid with human-like hands?
Internet robot demos are pre-programmed or remote-controlled. He said Optimus is meant to be the first generally useful humanoid, with a hand at least as dexterous as a human's and then superhuman.
- Q109 How important is physical-world AI compared with language models?
He agreed. Dolphins and whales are intelligent but cannot manipulate complex objects, which limits how much intelligence they can bring to bear.
- Q58 Will Cybercab replace Model 3?
He said Cybercab production had just started (April 2026), with Semi production to follow soon. Both would ramp slowly along an S-curve.
- Q59 Will Tesla own the robotaxi fleet?
He expects Robotaxi to stay vertically integrated like the rest of Tesla. Demand will exceed supply; the constraint is the march of nines of reliability, not finding riders.
- Q71 What is Digital Optimus and how far along is it? (asked on X)
Digital Optimus is computer-use: real-time video of a screen with controls out, the same photons-in/controls-out loop as a self-driving car, so a physical Optimus can operate any computer. SpaceX's large model assigns it tasks.
- Q79 When does Tesla stock have its NVIDIA moment? (asked on X)
He repeats that with excellent execution Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by far.
- Q82 What are the steps to achieve Tesla Master Plan Part 4? (asked on X)
Asked about Master Plan Part 4, he said scaling FSD and Optimus are the biggest factors and about 80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus.
- Q86 When will Tesla's larger FSD model ship? (asked on X)
He says the price of FSD will increase over time in proportion to its value.
- Q96 Will FSD have different driving modes? (asked on X)
Asked FSD is too aggressive for me. even chill mode.
- Q98 How much will Optimus cost compared to a car? (asked on X)
He said that once production passes about a million units a year, Optimus should cost around $20,000 to make in today's dollars.
- Q100 What will Tesla's Robotaxi look like? (asked on X)
He clarifies the cars going autonomous in Austin are the Model Ys Tesla makes currently.
- Q102 Will Optimus have a physical kill switch? (asked on X)
He says he would be more reticent about Optimus without meaningful influence over how it is deployed.
- Q134 Why does Tesla use cameras instead of lidar?
He says Tesla bet on a pure AI solution using cameras and audio, while Waymo chose an expensive sensor suite.
- Q127 What is the new Tesla Roadster?
He said the production car will actually do better than the demo figures shown.
- Q128 Why did Tesla build the Cybertruck?
He described it as a once-every-five-to-10-years kind of special product.
- Q129 Can the Boring Company solve traffic?
He said tunnels create a wormhole from one part of a city to another to alleviate traffic.
- Q130 What is the Tesla Semi?
He argues that trucking is decided by cost per mile, so any company that does not adopt a cheaper electric semi will lose out.
- Q132 How fast is Tesla expanding Superchargers?
He says Tesla wants all EVs to succeed and is opening up its Superchargers.
- Q136 When will the Tesla Semi reach volume production?
He said Semi was in low-volume production and he had just approved plans for volume production.
Then and now
- Unsupervised self-driving: then vs now
Robotaxi target years from 2019 to 2026, quote by quote.
- Optimus production: then vs now
Volume production dates for the Optimus robot, 2024 to 2026.
- Tesla Semi production: then vs now
Volume production dates for the Tesla Semi, 2017 to 2026.
- Robotaxi launch dates: then vs now
Robotaxi service and Cybercab launch dates, 2019 to 2026.
- Tesla Roadster 2: then vs now
Production and demo dates for the next-generation Roadster, 2017 to 2026.
- Hyperloop and Boring tunnels: then vs now
First routes, opening dates and the Hyperloop, 2017 to 2025.
- The 4680 battery cell: then vs now
Battery Day cost targets for the 4680 cell, 2020 to 2026.
- The $25,000 Tesla: then vs now
A $25,000 Tesla in “about three years”, 2018 to 2024.