He said China is the serious long-term competitor in launch, though he would rather bet on SpaceX.
"I think China is is the is is the serious competitor long term"
How competitive is China?
Q1572 answers2011-2026view changed
Short answer
He said China has a strong inherent manufacturing ability; Tesla Shanghai is a gem because the China team is talented, hard-working and trustworthy.
How his answer changed: 2023: Chinese carmakers are Tesla's toughest competitors. 2026 (Feb): absent US breakthroughs (robots) China will 'utterly dominate'. 2026 (Jul): there's a good chance China leads AI once it has compute.
All 72 answers, oldest to newest
2011 · 1 answer
2015 · 1 answer
They hire great engineers as fast as they can find them. It is not easy to find people with the right mindset; they hire at the maximum rate they can find people who would be an asset.
"We hire at the maximum rate that we can find people"
2016 · 1 answer
Chinese social products Weibo and WeChat are pretty impressive, better than what is in the US; he also called Alibaba impressive.
"Weibo, WeChat are pretty impressive, is better than what's in the US"
2017 · 3 answers
He guessed that in 10 years more than half of new vehicle production in the United States would be electric, and China would be ahead of that — by far the most aggressive on Earth on electric vehicles and solar.
"China is by far the most aggressive on um electric vehicles"
Companies will squawk that regulation will stifle innovation and move to China. He said it won't: Boeing has not moved to China, and the same on cars, unless the regime is really overbearing.
"it's going to move to China it won't"
Says competition for AI superiority at national level is the most likely cause of WW3.
"China, Russia, soon all countries w strong computer science. Competition for AI superiority at national level most likely cause of WW3 imo."
2018 · 1 answer
He says the pace of innovation is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness.
"What matters is the pace of innovation, that is the fundamental determination determinant of competitiveness."
2019 · 2 answers
He said the Tesla China team has done an amazing job, mind-blowing progress. He has never seen anything built so fast. He really thinks China is the future.
"I really think China is the future"
He said China is actually the world leader in environmental sustainability, and he is not sure how well that is known outside China. He thought about half of all the electric cars in the world were made in China the previous year.
"China is a world leader in environmental sustainability"
2020 · 8 answers
He told the team they achieved an incredible outcome that hardly anyone expected.
"You guys achieved, like, an incredible, incredible outcome that I think hardly anyone expected."
He says making cars in California and shipping them halfway around the world was pretty silly.
"making cars in California and then shipping them halfway around the world to Asia and Europe."
China has a lot of really smart, hard-working people. Independent of government policy, the Chinese economy is going to be at least twice as big as the US, maybe three times. Without radical innovation the US will be voluntarily second.
"the Chinese economy is going to be probably at least twice as big as the US economy"
He says the US should invest in infrastructure, and that China's infrastructure looks much better than America's.
"when I visit China, I see their infrastructure as being much better than ours."
He promises miners a giant long-term contract if they mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally friendly way.
"Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently"
He asks mining companies anywhere in the world to mine more nickel.
"Any mining companies out there, please mine more nickel."
He says Tesla's long-term competitive strength will be primarily manufacturing.
"I think Tesla's long term competitive strength will be primarily manufacturing."
He says the Tesla China team's progress is beyond all reasonable expectations.
"I'm always amazed by how much progress the Tesla China team makes. It's beyond all reasonable expectations."
2021 · 2 answers
China appears not to love cryptocurrency and is having significant electricity-generation issues, which may be part of the reason.
"significant uh electricity generation"
He said future wars between advanced countries will be very much drone wars.
"future wars between advanced countries or at least countries that have significant drone capability will be very much the drone wars."
2022 · 1 answer
He is very impressed with Chinese car companies as extremely competitive, hard-working and smart, and expects a massive wave of Chinese products globally. Tesla's constraint is supply chain, not competitors.
"I am very impressed with the companies, the car companies in China"
2023 · 13 answers
He says the Chinese market is the most competitive and its companies work the hardest and smartest.
"And the Chinese market is the most competitive. They work the hardest and they work the smartest."
He guesses a Chinese company is most likely to be second to Tesla.
"probably some company out of China is most likely to be second to Tesla"
He said a Russia-China alliance is inevitable. It will grow much stronger over time.
"A Russia-China alliance is inevitable. It will grow much stronger over time."
He does not look uncomfortable; Tesla has activities in China, but he rejects the idea that that muzzles his opinions.
"do I look uncomfortable"
He says the bottleneck is lithium refining capacity, not where the ore is.
"So it's much more a question of where's the refining capacity and can the refining capacity keep up."
He says Tesla is building lithium refinery capability at Corpus Christi and cathode refining.
"we're building our, you know, lithium refinery capability at Corpus Christi"
He said the China space program is far more advanced than most people realize
"The China space program is far more advanced than most people realize"
He says the biggest counterargument to regulating AI in the West is that China will not regulate.
"the biggest counterargument that I get for regulating AI in the west is that AI is that China will not regulate."
He says the Chinese Communist Party does not want to be subservient to a digital superintelligence.
"I think the CCP does not, does not want to find themselves subservient to a digital superintelligence."
He said great work by the @SpaceX team successfully launching 61 Falcon rocket missions this year! If tomorrow’s mission goes well, we will exceed last year’s flight count. SpaceX has delivered ~80% of all Earth payload mass ...
"Great work by the @SpaceX team successfully launching 61 Falcon rocket missions this year! If tomorrow’s mission goes well, we will exceed last year’s flight count. SpaceX has delivered ~80% of all Earth payload mass to orbit in 2023. China is ~10% & rest of world other ~10%."
He said spaceX is tracking to deliver ~1600 tons of payload to orbit this year. Rest of world will deliver ~400 tons, most of which is by China.
"SpaceX is tracking to deliver ~1600 tons of payload to orbit this year. Rest of world will deliver ~400 tons, most of which is by China."
Chinese car companies are by far the toughest competitors, super good at manufacturing with incredible work ethic.
"the work ethic is incredible"
He said monthly numbers are not meaningful, as cars are manufactured in batches to minimize complexity. We have to switch many parts between the China, EU and other country regulations, not to mention RHD vs LHD (pointless co...
"Monthly numbers are not meaningful, as cars are manufactured in batches to minimize complexity. We have to switch many parts between the China, EU and other country regulations, not to mention RHD vs LHD (pointless complexity nightmare)."
2024 · 3 answers
He said if the rest of the year goes well, SpaceX will deliver ~90% of all Earth’s payload to orbit. China will do ~6%, rest of the world combined ~4%.
"If the rest of the year goes well, SpaceX will deliver ~90% of all Earth’s payload to orbit. China will do ~6%, rest of the world combined ~4%."
He said if the rest of the year goes well, SpaceX will launch close to 90% of all mass to orbit. China will be ~6% and rest of world ~4%.
"If the rest of the year goes well, SpaceX will launch close to 90% of all mass to orbit. China will be ~6% and rest of world ~4%."
He said it’s not that hard and China will succeed. Paperwork is the biggest issue.
"It’s not that hard and China will succeed. Paperwork is the biggest issue."
2025 · 23 answers
He said i have been against a TikTok ban for a long time, because it goes against freedom of speech. That said, the current situation where TikTok is allowed to operate in America, but 𝕏 is not allowed to operate in China is ...
"I have been against a TikTok ban for a long time, because it goes against freedom of speech. That said, the current situation where TikTok is allowed to operate in America, but 𝕏 is not allowed to operate in China is unbalanced. Something needs to change."
He says Tesla is ensuring it can keep manufacturing even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels.
"we're making sure that we can continue to manufacture Our stuff, even in the event of geopolitical tensions rising to very high levels."
He said perhaps Ray Dalio has different data, but Grok thinks US, Europe & Japan manufacturing output is significantly higher than China
"Perhaps Ray Dalio has different data, but Grok thinks US, Europe & Japan manufacturing output is significantly higher than China https://t.co/Tgfa6H0Tjq"
He said china is by far the leader in electric cars and solar power produced
"China is by far the leader in electric cars and solar power produced"
Currently 100% of advanced AI chips are made in Taiwan; a near-term invasion would cut the world off from them.
"currently 100% of advanced AI chips are made in Taiwan"
He said we need to shift people from low to negative productivity jobs in government to high productivity jobs in manufacturing (as well as mining and refining of materials)
"We need to shift people from low to negative productivity jobs in government to high productivity jobs in manufacturing (as well as mining and refining of materials)"
He said important to note that what matters is the ability to refine rare earth elements (which are NOT actually meaningfully rare) and manufacture magnets for use in electric motors. People understandably tend to think that ...
"Important to note that what matters is the ability to refine rare earth elements (which are NOT actually meaningfully rare) and manufacture magnets for use in electric motors. People understandably tend to think that rare earth mineral deposits are what’s scarce, given the name. That is false. They’re everywhere. As with lithium, what China has that others lack is the heavy industry of refining the minerals."
He says no company matches Tesla in humanoid robots, but worries the next nine places will be Chinese companies.
"I'm a little concerned that on the leaderboard ranks two through ten will be Chinese companies."
He says the US should not depend so heavily on China for drone parts.
"the United States should not have such a severe dependency on China for drones and be unable to make them unless China gives us the parts."
He quotes a friend's post that any country that cannot manufacture its own drones is doomed.
"any country that cannot manufacture its own drones is doomed"
He says Tesla built a lithium refinery in South Texas, the biggest outside China.
"We have built a lithium refinery in South Texas and it's the biggest lithium refinery outside of China, I think."
He says America cannot currently manufacture its own drones and China makes about 70%.
"America cannot currently manufacture its own drones."
He said correction: China is a much bigger consumer of manufactured goods than the United States. This year, Chinese consumers will buy more cars than America and Europe combined.
"Correction: China is a much bigger consumer of manufactured goods than the United States. This year, Chinese consumers will buy more cars than America and Europe combined."
He declined drones/weapons; SpaceX builds rockets, satellites and internet terminals and will probably do 90% of mass to orbit this year, with China about 5%.
"SpaceX will probably do 90%"
Tesla was not allowed to train on China videos, yet local tests still ranked Tesla FSD best. China is the most competitive market; he focuses on the product, not competitors.
"China is the most competitive market"
He said most people don’t realize how much solar power China has installed. Enough to power half of America!
"Most people don’t realize how much solar power China has installed. Enough to power half of America!"
He said but China is also the biggest car buyer! This year, China will BUY more cars than America and Europe combined.
"But China is also the biggest car buyer! This year, China will BUY more cars than America and Europe combined."
He said solar power in China will exceed all sources of electricity combined in the USA in 3 to 4 years.
"Solar power in China will exceed ALL sources of electricity combined in the USA in 3 to 4 years. Wake up call."
He said China has almost 4 times the US population and if GDP per capita approximates the US, China’s economy will be about 4X bigger, or at least 2X to 3X if growth tapers.
"The fundamental challenge is that China has almost 4 times the population of the US and their GDP per capita is trending to roughly approximate that of the US. If this trend continues, China will have an economy ~4X bigger. Even if their GDP/capita growth tapers off, China’s economy will be at least 2X to 3X bigger than America. Simple math."
He said Tesla achieved top results in China with no local training data because of data-export laws, and is adding simulator and test-track data to achieve 6/6.
"Due to laws against data export, Tesla achieved the top results in China despite having no local training data. Tesla is adding training data from our world simulator and test tracks to achieve 6/6."
He said China has many excellent companies in many industries.
"China has many excellent companies in many industries"
He said China is making a vast number of robots.
"China is making a vast number of robots"
He said China has made incredible progress in solar power and America needs to do the same.
"Incredible progress by China in solar power! America needs to do the same."
2026 · 13 answers
On current trends China will far exceed the rest of the world in AI compute. He expects China to pass three times US electricity output in 2026 and to figure out the chips; xAI and Google are his best guess for US primacy, then competition with China.
"China will far exceed the rest of the world in uh AI compute."
He said China's growth in solar and EVs will greatly reduce its dependence on oil and gas.
"China’s incredible growth in solar power and electric vehicles will greatly reduce its dependence on oil & gas"
On US solar-production goals, he said China already has 1500 GW/year production capacity, so the US figure is still small fry.
"China already has 1500 GW/year production capacity, so this is still small fry by comparison"
He said China's electricity generation is growing super fast, solar is the largest incremental contributor, and it will exceed America by 3X this year or next.
"China electricity generation is still growing super fast, with solar being the largest incremental contributor, and will exceed America by a factor of 3X either this year or next"
China out-works the US with four times the population; the US can only win on robots.
"the average work ethic in China is higher than in the US"
He said China is an amazing manufacturing powerhouse and understands that solar is the future.
"China is an amazing powerhouse of manufacturing and understands very well that solar is the future. It’s just a fact!"
He said China is rapidly reducing dependence on oil.
"China is rapidly reducing dependence on oil"
With little compute Chinese labs are close; with lots of compute they'd likely lead. China has more electricity than the US, Europe and India combined.
"China has more electricity than the United States, Europe, and India combined already"
He said China makes half the goods of Earth.
"China makes half the goods of Earth"
On a 2011 post that SpaceX's endgame is China, he added that China is also by far the strongest competitor in AI.
"China is also by far the strongest competitor in AI"
Winning on AI takes scaling energy and chip production; China is the biggest competitor and already has about three times US electricity production.
"China has about three times the electricity production of the United States"
He said China has a strong inherent manufacturing ability; Tesla Shanghai is a gem because the China team is talented, hard-working and trustworthy.
"China just has a very strong inherent ability to do manufacturing well"
He said when China learns to make a product it often scales more than the rest of the world combined (batteries, solar). SpaceX is a rare exception on mass-to-orbit, but China now does most non-SpaceX mass-to-orbit. Commodity RAM/LPDDR China is solving fast; newer HBM, SRAM-under-logic and 3D-stacked RAM with cooling will be harder.
"When China figures out how to manufacture a product, their ability to scale is often greater than the rest of the world combined. We saw this with lithium batteries and solar, for example. SpaceX is a rare counter-example, where its mass to orbit is roughly an order of magnitude greater than the rest of the world, BUT China now does a majority of non-SpaceX mass to orbit. SpaceX is an anomaly in the matrix. Maybe RAM will be different, but RAM was a low margin commodity only ~3 years ago. LP5 and LP6 are designed to a common standard that China seems to be solving fast. Newer HBM architectures and things like an SRAM layer below logic and 3D stacking RAM on top of logic while finding a way to keep the logic cooled will be harder to solve."
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