How many robots will there be?

Q4028 answers2023-2026
Short answer

He said Tesla needs on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 Optimus robots doing self-play to gather training data.

From his 2026-10-22 answer in Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call (2026). Summary is ours; see the quotes below.

All 28 answers, oldest to newest

2023 · 2 answers
🎙 Interview · 2023-10-18 · Tesla Q3 2023 earnings call (2023) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 24:50 · transcript ·
He says economic output is people times productivity, so humanoid robots remove the constraint on people.
"given that economic output is number of people times productivity, if you no longer have a constraint on people effectively you've got a humanoid robot that can do as much as you'd like."
🎙 Interview · 2023-11 · In Conversation with Rishi Sunak · asked by Rishi Sunak · watch at 38:31 · transcript ·
Anything a computer can actuate is effectively a robot; Tesla cars are robots on wheels, and anything connected to the internet is an endpoint actuator for AI.
"Tesla cars are robots on wheels"
2024 · 8 answers
𝕏 post · 2024-06-10 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @cb_doge · open post ·
He said it comes down to what you think the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will be. My guess is that it will be >>1.
"It comes down to what you think the ratio of humanoid robots to humans will be. My guess is that it will be >>1."
🎙 Interview · 2024-07-23 · Tesla Q2 2024 earnings call (2024) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 33:57 · transcript ·
He says everyone on Earth will want a humanoid robot that can do almost anything asked of it.
"I think everyone on Earth is going to want 1."
🎙 Interview · 2024-07-23 · Tesla Q2 2024 earnings call (2024) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 33:39 · transcript ·
He says the long-term value of Optimus will exceed everything else at Tesla combined.
"I think the long term value of Optimus will exceed that of everything else that Tesla combined."
🎙 Interview · 2024-07-23 · Tesla Q2 2024 earnings call (2024) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 33:57 · transcript ·
He says everyone on Earth will want a humanoid robot, so that is 8 billion right there.
"I think everyone on Earth is going to want 1. There's 8 billion people on Earth, so that's 8 billion right there."
🎙 Interview · 2024-08 · Elon Musk: Neuralink and the Future of Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #438 · asked by Lex Fridman · watch at 37:06 · transcript ·
Tesla video plus Optimus in the real world could mean hundreds of millions of Optimus robots, maybe billions, as a data source.
"there might be hundreds of millions of Optimus robots, maybe billions"
🎙 Interview · 2024-09 · Elon Musk | All-In Summit 2024 · asked by All-In hosts (live, All-In Summit) · watch at 50:52 · transcript ·
Robots will vastly exceed humans, at least 2:1, maybe 3:1; the humanoid opportunity is the biggest ever.
"the ratio of humanoid robots to humans is going to be at least 2 to one maybe 3 to one"
🎙 Interview · 2024-10 · Future Investment Initiative · asked by FII interviewer · watch at 13:52 · transcript ·
By 2040 there are probably more humanoid robots than people, on the order of 10 billion, at maybe $20-25,000 each.
"more humanoid robots than there are people"
🎙 Interview · 2024-11 · Joe Rogan Experience #2223 - Elon Musk · asked by Joe Rogan · watch at 2:30:34 · transcript ·
Not overnight, but in 20 years he thinks there will be more humanoid robots than humans.
"I think it's like 20 years from now I think there's going to be more more humanoid robots than are humans"
2025 · 10 answers
🎙 Interview · 2025-01-29 · Tesla Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call (2025) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 14:39 · transcript ·
He says a humanoid robot probably has a thousand times more uses than a car, so it will need far more training.
"Humanoid robot has probably a thousand times more uses and more complex things than in a car."
🎙 Interview · 2025-01-29 · Tesla Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call (2025) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 15:31 · transcript ·
He says Optimus could exceed $10 trillion in revenue.
"Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue."
🎙 Interview · 2025-01-29 · Tesla Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call (2025) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 20:58 · transcript ·
He says it would not take many years of fast growth to reach 100 million Optimus robots a year.
"It doesn't take very many years before you know we're making 100 million of these things a year."
🎙 Interview · 2025-01-29 · Tesla Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call (2025) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 45:27 · transcript ·
He says everything else will pale in comparison to Optimus.
"all this is going to pale in comparison to Optimus."
🎙 Interview · 2025-01-29 · Tesla Q4 and full year 2024 earnings call (2025) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 22:30 · transcript ·
He predicts Optimus will long-term be overwhelmingly the value of the company.
"my prediction long term is that Optimus will be overwhelmingly the value of the company"
🎙 Interview · 2025-03 · ELON UNCUT - THE COMPLETE INTERVIEW | Verdict Ep. 216 · asked by Ted Cruz / Ben Ferguson · watch at 22:06 · transcript ·
There will ultimately be billions of humanoid robots, and all cars will be self-driving.
"there will be ultimately billions of humanoid robots"
🎙 Interview · 2025-05 · Saudi-US Investment Forum · asked by Interviewer · watch at 1:22 · transcript ·
He predicted there will ultimately be tens of billions of humanoid robots.
"My prediction actually for humanoid robots is that ultimately there will be tens of billions."
🎙 Interview · 2025-07 · Elon Musk Interview | The Future, Engineered | X Takeover 2025 · asked by Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (John and Kelvin) · watch at 23:11 · transcript ·
He thinks basically everyone on Earth will want one, plus industrial use, a market of perhaps 20 billion and maybe 50 billion robots. At scale he guessed on the order of $20,000 each.
"there's at least a market for probably 20 billion"
𝕏 post · 2025-08-24 · @elonmusk on X · asked by @davidpattersonx · open post ·
He said humanoid robots will far exceed the human population, since everyone will want a personal R2-D2 and C-3PO.
"However, intelligent robots in humanoid form will far exceed the population of humans, as every person will want their own personal R2-D2 and C-3PO."
🎙 Interview · 2025-11 · Ron Baron and Elon Musk Discuss the Future · asked by Ron Baron · watch at 6:52 · transcript ·
He expects billions of humanoid robots: everyone will want a personal helper, plus maybe three or four industrial robots per human, implying on the order of 30-40 billion robots.
"maybe as high as 40 billion 40 40 billion maybe maybe 30 billion robots"
2026 · 8 answers
🎙 Interview · 2026-01 · Conversation with Elon Musk | World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 · asked by Larry Fink · watch at 11:40 · transcript ·
Output is productivity per robot times the number of robots. He predicts more robots than people, and that everyone on Earth will want one for childcare, pets, and elderly care.
"my prediction is they'll be they'll be more robots than people"
🎙 Interview · 2026-01 · Elon Musk on AGI Timeline, US vs China, Job Markets, Clean Energy & Humanoid Robots | 220 · asked by Peter Diamandis · watch at 1:30:52 · transcript ·
Ten billion by 2040 is a low number. The constraint is metal and moving atoms—supply chain—not demand. He also said there will be more humanoid robots than humans.
"I don't think people understand how many robots there's going to be."
🎙 Interview · 2026-03 · Terafab Launch (2026) · asked by Tesla / SpaceX / xAI · watch at 12:59 · transcript ·
He said he expects humanoid robot production of 1 to 10 billion units a year, versus ~100 million vehicles.
"I expect humanoid robot production to be somewhere between a billion and 10 billion units a year"
🎙 Interview · 2026-05 · Samson International Smart Mobility Summit (Tel Aviv) · asked by Daniela Gozlan Margaliot · watch at 4:04 · transcript ·
Tesla already makes four-wheeled robots; he predicts far more intelligent robots than people.
"far far more uh uh robots like intelligent robots in the world than there will be people"
🎙 Interview · 2026-07 · Tesla Q2 2026 earnings call · asked by Will (Truist) · watch at 58:47 · transcript ·
Optimus 4, to be built in Austin with a more vertically integrated supply chain, is aimed at an order of magnitude more output than Optimus 3: aspirationally 10 million units a year versus a million, with the caveat that scaling is insanely difficult.
"sort of aspirationally 10 million units a year versus a million units a year of Optimus 3"
🎙 Interview · 2026-09 · Full: Exclusive CMG interview with Tesla CEO Elon Musk · asked by CMG interviewer · watch at 16:03 · transcript ·
He called at least a billion humanoid robots within 10 years an easy prediction, and later sketched 10 billion in 15 years and 100 billion in 20 if output roughly doubles each year.
"at least a billion humanoid robots within 10 years"
🎙 Interview · 2026-09 · G20 Innovation Ministerial Summit — Remarks (North Carolina) · asked by G20 Innovation Ministerial Summit · watch at 8:53 · transcript ·
He said he would bet serious money on at least a billion robots in 10 years, each with at least five times a human's output.
"there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years and that those robots will be at least five times the output of a human"
🎙 Interview · 2026-10-22 · Tesla Q3 2026 earnings call (2026) · asked by Tesla Investor Relations · watch at 24:20 · transcript ·
He said Tesla needs on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 Optimus robots doing self-play to gather training data.
"So we need to make, I think on the order of 10 or 20,000 bots and then have them do self play."

Last updated: 2026-10-22 (newest answer).

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