Output is productivity per robot times the number of robots. He predicts more robots than people, and that everyone on Earth will want one for childcare, pets, and elderly care.
"my prediction is they'll be they'll be more robots than people"
Ten billion by 2040 is a low number. The constraint is metal and moving atoms—supply chain—not demand. He also said there will be more humanoid robots than humans.
"I don't think people understand how many robots there's going to be."
He said he expects humanoid robot production of 1 to 10 billion units a year, versus ~100 million vehicles.
"I expect humanoid robot production to be somewhere between a billion and 10 billion units a year"
Tesla already makes four-wheeled robots; he predicts far more intelligent robots than people.
"far far more uh uh robots like intelligent robots in the world than there will be people"
Optimus 4, to be built in Austin with a more vertically integrated supply chain, is aimed at an order of magnitude more output than Optimus 3: aspirationally 10 million units a year versus a million, with the caveat that scaling is insanely difficult.
"sort of aspirationally 10 million units a year versus a million units a year of Optimus 3"
He called at least a billion humanoid robots within 10 years an easy prediction, and later sketched 10 billion in 15 years and 100 billion in 20 if output roughly doubles each year.
"at least a billion humanoid robots within 10 years"
He said he would bet serious money on at least a billion robots in 10 years, each with at least five times a human's output.
"there will be at least a billion robots in 10 years and that those robots will be at least five times the output of a human"
He said Tesla needs on the order of 10,000 to 20,000 Optimus robots doing self-play to gather training data.
"So we need to make, I think on the order of 10 or 20,000 bots and then have them do self play."